Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[njb67] 28/12/2017 22:56

Is that it?

Ignoring Benlysta, which in hindsight appears to be a bubble, let hear your other examples. 76x over 13 months is not normal, even in Pharma.

If I had believed every Chairman I had heard, I would be a billionaire today. They talk their agenda. It is what they are paid to do.

You are making an assumption about me without knowing me at all.

List price and actual selling price - you need to watch the latter if you are going to make money in pharma.

Good luck.

p.s. What is it that uber pro-IMM posters are compelled to repeatedly re-post War and Peace on their investment treatise? It does not follow that the more words you post, the more likely you are to be correct, history say is is more likely to be the reverse....

[englishlongbow] 28/12/2017 22:44

Lets start with the most obvious one. In March 2009, HGSi shares (on their 50% stake in lupus drug Benlysta) were $0.45, becoming $3.23 (market cap $528m) early Jul 2009 just before PIII Benlysta results, $12.51 (market cap of $2 billion+) at close on results day late Jul 2009, and $34.49 ($6.46 billion market cap, as there was also some dilution) at peak in Apr 2010 = 76x return over 13 months from peak low to peak high. (Source: Poster 'sicilian_kan', L-S-E, 8/7/2017). In addition, with IMM's Lupuzor P140, we are looking at treating multiple indications, not just one indication as for Benlysta, so the valuation for Lupuzor could be even higher and IMM have a nice long broad patent:

Lupuzor™ Symposium
8th June 2016 - 3:35 pm

41 min 40 sec onwards:


- Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) (Market size $4 bn) (Lupuzor for SLE ends Phase 3, Jan 2018)
- Neuropsychiatric lupus (NPSLE)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Rheumatoid Arthritis (Market size $28.5 bn by 2025)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Crohn's Disease + Ulcerative Colitis (Market size $4 bn by 2022)
- Guillan-Barre disease
- Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIDP)
- Asthma (Market size $20.7 bn in 2015)

Other potential evaluations (to be tested Jun 2016 onwards):
- Scleroderma (Systemic Sclerosis, Raynaud)
- Psoriasis
- Multiple Sclerosis (MS) (Market size $20 bn by 2024)
- (Others to follow)

Negative preclinical results for potential re-evaluation:
- Type I Diabetes (Market size $43 bn by 2021)
- Amytrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

IMM now have a new Lupuzor patent (granted 2017) covering key markets (USA, EU, China, India & Japan) to 2032 & use in the majority of autoimmune indications. A new patent has also been filed to cover non-autoimmune indications. (IMM, Sep 2017)

And you say you don't think Lupuzor could sell for $25k pa. Well, IMM's Chairman says Lupuzor will probably sell for $25k pa to $30k pa and I think he knows more than you. Benlysta already sells for £35k pa dispite looking less efficaceous, less safe and slower acting than Lupuzor.

[njb67] 28/12/2017 22:33

ELB

All ears - please do share.

[englishlongbow] 28/12/2017 22:26

I can name several pharmas taken over for $billions and with less valuable drugs than IMM, which could treat 12+ high value indications.

[andyr42] 28/12/2017 22:21

£2 by eow?

[njb67] 28/12/2017 20:49

MM
If you are basing investment decision on what the analysts say, then I wish you well. You may want to research their performance over time, it is not pretty reading. That is for mainstream stocks, let alone aim stocks where coverage and understanding may be more cursory. To claim that proves me wrong is a bit of a stretch, sorry.

I did not go back to the original RNS but googled news reports of the deal, they all reported the maximum $500m and made no mention of royalties. The implied maximum £3/share provides a real world starting point for a valuation of IMM. It is based on what Celaphon were prepared to pay at the time and would have assumed Lupuzor was a commercial success, so a lot of what has happened since would have been baked into these numbers.

If there were additional royalty payments, then it would though provide an uplift to my base valuation.

NY
Over the years, I have moved away from individual stocks, the vast majority of the portfolio is now in investment trusts. I have been aware of IMM for a while – it has been “pushed” heavily on boards I read – but only made a decision to take a small position this morning. For me this is a good old fashioned punt, there is a good chance I will lose most of this money but if IMM does come good on the trials and if they can conclude a favourable co-promote deal or sale, then the share price will likely be a long way north of where it is today. IMM does not meet my normal investment criteria - far too speculative, hence it is a small bet alongside my main portfolio.

MM1
You do not need to keep posting your valuation, I have seen this countless times. I do not believe IMM will command $25k per patient; I do not believe the Kite read across is reliable, I would rather start with the Cephalon valuation and build up from there; it is clear that GSK overpaid for Benlysta; given the high risk of drug development, acquiring companies place low valuations on pipeline assets…I have covered all this off earlier, so will not repeat here. I simply do not believe your valuation to be remotely realistic, you have banked all the positives at the top end of what is feasible and ignored all the risks I have highlighted.

As a reality check, how many companies can you name that go from a £200m market cap to £13bn on the back on a phase three clinical trial? It simply does not happen.

I am with Volsung, a valuation of £5+ in 2018 would be a very good outcome for shareholders, anything more a bonus but claims of £98 per share a pure fantasy.

[volsung] 28/12/2017 20:16

I'd be happy with £5

[rabito79] 28/12/2017 19:43

spmc, where was the 35% royalties quoted? I had assumed given the number was not quoted in the original RNS that it would be much lower than this. Apologies if I missed it.

[spmc] 28/12/2017 18:49

@njb67 the important thing to remember with the cephalon deal is it wasn’t just the $500 million in milestone payments we also recieved a ??% royalty on all future sales of Lupuzor which potontially would have been worth billions of dollars per year to immupharma, so a similar deal could easily make the immupharma worth $10-30 billion with a modest p/e ratio if the Lupuzor sales are good

[ny boy] 28/12/2017 18:47

njb67

With your knowledge and experience, why has it taken you this long to invest £20k, just wondering, we’re you not aware of IMM until recently? GL with your investment anyway

[money maker1] 28/12/2017 18:40

You are proven wrong. One anlayst said this in a recent presentation:

"HGSi's takeout price was $3.6 billion for 50% of the rights (to Benlysta) so we can assume roughly Benlysta was bought for $7 billion...and that's in 2012...so if we are looking at a drug (Lupuzor) that could be better, the price could be higher...a novel treatment for lupus could command that price...because it already has..." (Vadim Alexandre, Jul 2017)

P.S.
You are not much of a researcher if you cannot even be bothered to go back to the primary data source, i.e. the Official RNS News Announcement of the Cephalon license exercise in Feb 2009 (pre Phase 2b results):

"Cephalon will pay ImmuPharma $30 million for licensing the worldwide rights of LupuzorTM. The various future cash milestone payments upon the achievement of certain regulatory and sales milestones (including the option and license fees) may total up to approximately $500 million. In addition to the cash milestone payments, ImmuPharma will receive royalties on commercial sales of LupuzorTM.....

....ImmuPharma received a $15 million upfront fee at the initiation of the deal in November 2008 whereby it granted Cephalon the option for the exclusive license to LupuzorTM. Following receipt of this additional license fee of $30 million, ImmuPharma will have approximately $ 50 million of cash on its balance sheet...".

[njb67] 28/12/2017 18:30

Top tips

Thanks for your post. I can assure you I am not a de-ramper and if I have got something wrong in what I have posted, then I am happy to be corrected. Please do call this out.

I have been on ADVFN for the last decade, but post rarely nowadays, but if you look back on what I have put on the board over the years, then I hope you can see that I am aim to be fair and balanced. I am by nature a value investor, so take conservative views on potential investments, it is also why I am constantly looking to find faults/risks in the investment case. The approach has served me well over the years.

By the way, I took the financials from the following article - $15m upfront and up to $500m maximum. This report is a little different to what you describe. It is though an estimate of what a company was prepared to pay at a point in time, around £3 per share if all payments were made. It is also the maximum payment, which would have included positive phase three data, regulatory opinion and meeting agreed commercial targets. While you are right to highlight what has changed since the deal was announced, how much of this was already factored into the deal?

hxxps://www.pipelinereview.com/index.php/2008112623632/More-News/Cephalon-and-ImmuPharma-Sign-a-$15-million-Option-Agreement-for-Late-Stage-Experimental-Lupus-Medication.html

I said the Cephalon deal would be where I would start to build a valuation from, recognising broader indications etc. I would also add that it has become harder to launch/sustain high cost medicine prices in recent years, see earlier comments. You can see this in the UK market, it is though a global phenomenon.

I have also worked in pharma for 30 years, so know this sector inside out, I hope that I can offer some useful insights to those on this board who are less familiar with how it works. It is a complex beast and translating scientific promise into shareholder value has many hurdles.

I have also been an investor for 25 years and know that there is no such thing as a sure fire investment. I strive to keep a fair balance between seeing the opportunities and being realistic.

I may be proven wrong, but I can not see how a valuation of £40-£60-£80 per share can be justified. I do though see significant upside from the current share price if the trial data delivers, which is why I invested £20k this morning.

[top tips] 28/12/2017 18:11

Comfortably a Top 20 drug imo and possibly a Top 10.

[flavio_monteiro] 28/12/2017 18:08

Top Tips....top twenty drug!!!! Or even better
...maybe treat 20 different autoimmune diseases!

It’s a possibility....

[top tips] 28/12/2017 17:57

njb67 # 8086

Firstly, you cannot use IMM's superceded Cephalon deal figures as a basis for a current valuation of Lupuzor or IMM, and your upfront figures are incorrect anyway.

IMM's superceded deal for Lupuzor with Cephalon in Feb 2009, involved two upfront cash payments to IMM of £15m + $30m, a $500 million cash milestone payments structure and high royalties on future sales. In late 2011, following the acquisition of Cephalon by Teva, IMM regained all rights and currently owns 100% of Lupuzor.

The Cephalon deal was based on just Phase 1 and 2a Lupuzor data, since when a huge amount of additional value has been added by:

1) Lupuzor producing the world's best ever Phase 2b lupus data in late 2009.
2) Positive data in multiple other high value indications.
3) All Lupuzor data beating the only other current market drug Benlysta on efficacy, safety, speed of action, price and profit margin.
4) Phase 3 due Jan 2018, and assuming it passes, derisking the product.

Subsequently, we also have, as kensingtoncourt rightly pointed out: "Its acepted knowledge that if GSK boughtout HGSi for $3.6 billion for 50% of Benlysta, and that values 100% of Benlysta at around £7 billion, which is equivalent to £40 a share for IMM. We also know Gilean's recent takeover of Kite valued every $1 billion of sales 5 years in the future at $7 billion, so the same applies. If anything Lupuzor is likely to be a multi-billion sales seller so we could be looking at multiples of $7 billion as a valuation for IMM. Money maker1 has suggested £80 for starters".

Secondly, Benlysta is predicted to achieve sales of $1 billion pa by 2020 if not superceded by Lupuzor. If Lupuzor passes Phase 3, all this will go to Lupuzor, which will also grow the lupus market further as it is cheaper, safer, more efficaceous, etc. than Benlysta.

Thirdly, IMM's Lupuzor P140 is an entire platform, applicable to multiple high value indications, some with larger markets than for lupus. Benlysta just treated lupus and not particularly well. High value Lupuzor P140 sales could be replicated in at least twelve indications:

Lupuzor™ Symposium
8th June 2016 - 3:35 pm

41 min 40 sec onwards:


- Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) (Market size $4 bn) (SLE ends Phase 3, Jan 2018)
- Neuropsychiatric lupus (NPSLE)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Rheumatoid Arthritis (Market size $28.5 bn by 2025)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Crohn's Disease + Ulcerative Colitis (Market size $4 bn by 2022)
- Guillan-Barre disease
- Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIDP)
- Asthma (Market size $20.7 bn in 2015)

Other potential evaluations (to be tested Jun 2016 onwards):
- Scleroderma (Systemic Sclerosis, Raynaud)
- Psoriasis
- Multiple Sclerosis (MS) (Market size $20 bn by 2024)
- (Others to follow)

Negative preclinical results for potential re-evaluation:
- Type I Diabetes (Market size $43 bn by 2021)
- Amytrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

Fourthly, IMM now have a new Lupuzor patent (granted 2017) covering key markets (USA, EU, China, India & Japan) to 2032 & use in the majority of autoimmune indications. A new patent has also been filed to cover non-autoimmune indications. (IMM, Sep 2017)


You are starting to look like a deramper. Every post pretending to be serious but including factually incorrect information or analysis, skewed to the negative.

Lupuzor could be one of the top twenty drugs in the world.

[immy1992] 28/12/2017 17:40

Rabito I agree with what you have to say regarding benlysta.

However, I'm under the understanding that this is because benlysta is not very effective, has a long list of side effects and is not particularly effective in some races.

I believe that the lupus market is there and the 1bn potential sales figure is achievable. Although benlysta was the first approved it was very lacking. I believe lupuzor will not only take over benlysta sales but also unlock a very big piece of the current market size.

Now lupuzor if it manages to replicate p2 , is cheaper and continues to lack side effects I believe that not only will it take over benlysta sales but it will also bring in more willing patients.

Regarding this whole time thing. I believe it's deviating from the main issue at hand here. A lot of us here are long-term holders and aren't selling till we hit our mark or a deal of some sort is made. As I've said before, patience is a virtue. But thanks for the info on standard timelines. We're gonna get to have our cake and eat it too lads, almost there

[ny boy] 28/12/2017 17:33

Divmad28 Dec '17 - 13:53 - 8068 of 8088
0 0 0
Mr T , out of interest, how many shares of IMM do you own currently?

Good question lol 😂

[perfect pete] 28/12/2017 17:25

Njb67 putting in some hours today!

[rabito79] 28/12/2017 16:56

Whilst we all like to compare a future deal of Lupuzor with the GSK deal for Benlysta I think this is a stretch. On the face of it the Benlysta deal has been terrible for GSK. Annual sales ~$400m per annum and a purchase price equivalent to $7billion. If we assume Benlysta will be phased out by the success of Lupuzor, I can't see any big pharma trying to replicate the Benlysta deal.

[njb67] 28/12/2017 16:35

fair point hamx3

Just working out that the original Cephalon deal ($15m downpayment, up to $500m maximum) was worth up to £3 per share.

I think this is a better starting point to value IMM.

[hamhamham1] 28/12/2017 16:23

njb67. If Immupharma was bought out then the buyer would be buying the whole p140 platform, so not so dissimilar maybe?

[njb67] 28/12/2017 16:17

kensington - I hope you are right.

I think the Kite comparison is misleading as Gilead have effectively purchased a technology platform (T-cell) which could be used to develop medicines in a number of different therapy areas.

Worth noting that takeovers are rarely in excess of 50% of the prevailing share price (Gilead paid a 29% premium for Kite), so the share price will give us more of an indication of where we could be taken out than expecting an offer many times our current market cap.

GLA.

[sportbilly1976] 28/12/2017 16:13

hamham,

you could also say there have been quite a lot of stock sold to the willing buyers....

stock on loan data is nil available (so any/all less than 0.5%)