Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[hamila01] 29/12/2017 09:51

Herschel - great post. Sums it up very well.njb has delivered a far more realistic presentation of the facts than some of the rampers have recently. I hope he/she is totally wrong with the £3 to £5 range and that we do see IMM hit in excess of £40 region but I fear (this is AIM after all!!!) we won't ever see fair value....GLA LTH's!

[barriew] 29/12/2017 09:45

I dont post as most of the board is ramping now, and as njb67 says 4-5£ now would be great for anyone invested, wait and see what happens, perhaps multiples if that one day,
I must say since last october we have had several posters starting with nobby, who seem to spend all day n nght deramping then dissapear, i imagine they are paid to do this, or work n the industry, for their own endgame,
Many of them didnt want to invest but spent hours saying the same old rubbish, best to ignore them.
Good luck to all in 2018 wether we get to £5 or £50, im happy with either.

[sportbilly1976] 29/12/2017 09:41

£1,500??? :0

Wonder if we will get a nice move upwards before the 12:30 close as per the session before Christmas? Seems as though, as with this share on previous occasions, once the seller at 170p clears we could see a move to the 'round number' resistance at 200p

[ewads] 29/12/2017 09:26

hamthree-1; just filter the repetitive trolls,(there's quite a few!). You'll feel much better.
Thanks to all the well researched posters over the year.
Happy New Year

[spmc] 29/12/2017 09:24

@best £40-£60 could end up being conservative, we could very easily do another licence deal with a 35% royalty then image Lupuzor reaches 400,000 patients at $25,000 per annum that’s $10 billion in revenue and $3.5 billion net to Immupharma. Knock of $100 million for admin expenses and development of the other drugs and apply a typical p/e ratio of 15 gives us a market cap of $51 billion or £290 per share. If Lupuzor gets approved for other indications it could easily reach 1-2 million patients, do the maths if that happens £1,500+ share price easily

[jpleight] 29/12/2017 09:18

njb thank you for your view on the reality of the industry. I think it adds balance to the bb.

[hamhamham1] 29/12/2017 09:16

Arghhhhh, thats it!
Am off to do something else till next year.
Happy New Year all.

[money maker1] 29/12/2017 09:13

Seems to be a growing awareness in the media about the multi-billion dollar sales potential of Lupuzor just in lupus. We know the valuation formula is about $7 billion per $1 billion of future sales, so we are looking at approx $14 billion, or £80 a share just for starters, even without the other eleven high value indications.

[best1467] 29/12/2017 08:57

Anyone who's been investing for any amount of time will know that shares get completely over sold to crazy low valuations and allso the reverse happens .
If we get successful results on pure speculation amongst main stream press and increased broker recommendations alone you could easily see £10 to £15 quite quickly even before the bidding starts.You can unstandardised the sceptasism when people come out with £40 to £60 but i believe with the right things in place it could easily happen.

[hamhamham1] 29/12/2017 08:55

0.12p buy/sell difference. That's as close as it gets here. Maybe see a few pence movement soon?

[top tips] 29/12/2017 08:55

Topped up again. Looking good.

[njb67] 29/12/2017 08:55

luke 12k shares and yes, it is a small punt for me.

I have been in this game a very long time and offer no apology for trying to inject some realism into the discussion here. I also work in the sector and have for many years, so I know how it works and the pitfalls. It is a high attrition business - plenty of medicines fail to get through phase 3 - and the economics of the industry are changing rapidly and not in the favour of pharma cos. Having regulatory approval is no longer sufficient for commercial success, companies need to also navigate negotiations with cash strapped governments and healthcare systems who simply do not want to pay big money for new medicines. When the Hep-C drugs were launched in the UK, it was estimated it would cost £10bn to treat all eligible patients. NHS England paid around £300m in 2016/17 for Hep C medicines. This is the reality missing from all the forecasts I have seen here....This is not a UK issue, it is global.

Company valuations of medicines are also coming down because of increased global pricing pressure, especially for medicines perceived to be "high cost". Pharma cos will look at whether GSK got a good deal from their acquisition of Benlysta (as they do will all other acquisitions) and will re-calibrate their assessment of fair value accordingly.

I invested here as if the phase 3 results are as hoped, then this will be an attractive product to partner, or acquire. They may even get taken out. If all goes well, then I can see IMM getting up towards £10/share in next couple of year, which is why I am here. As I have said though, this is no sure thing.

If my posts have prompted folk here to take a more sophisticated look at the economics of the industry than those who believe that we are one a certain path to riches, then it will have been worth the time I took to post. We all make our own choices and I know that there will be folk here who will dismiss what I have posted as it does not align with their views or agenda. That is your choice.

I will leave you all with one thought - if IMM are such a sure fire bet to be £98 in short order, then why are the pharma companies not filling their boots in the open market at £2 a share. Why are they holding off so that they can bid £98 per share next year?

Good luck all, I hope that IMM treats you well.

[top tips] 29/12/2017 08:28

Kensingtoncourt well said. This is easily worth $10 billion on good Phase 3 results and Lupuzor is as an entire platform treating at least twelve indications all high worth. It's all in Sylviene Muller's Lupuzor Symposium presentation.

[lukead] 29/12/2017 08:19

At times with your post's, one could quite easily forget that you say you have bought in to IMM just yesterday, some what was it 20,000 shares or 12,000 shares ? You made it clear that it was a very tiny portion of your vast portfolio made up largely of invest trusts. You accuse the ramping 'set' of repeat postings and yet you, yourself are repeating the same message, which is basically , yes buy by all means and at the end of the day, if successful £5 (not the £10 to £90) is reachable and if unsuccessful then you yourself and others will lose out. Of course for you personally, a 'hit' will mean nothing much.

[mad foetus] 29/12/2017 08:11

Anyone who believes in sure fire bets shouldn't be investing in the stock market. I see IMM as a gamble but one where the odds are really in our favour. If passing phase III was a 50/50 prospect, and if a fair share price after passing phase III was £5, a Fair share price now would be £2.50. Puts it into perspective as I believe both the odds and the outcome are much higher than that.

[njb67] 29/12/2017 08:07

To the realists here, good luck, I hope this works out for you.

For those who believe this is a life changing opportunity and a sure fire bet - I will you the very best, as I fear you are going to need this.

No share is a one way bet, this is a high risk, high reward gamble, it is not an investment.

GLA

[waterloo01] 29/12/2017 07:55

See IMM are tipped in sharesmagazine

Drug developer ImmuPharma (IMM:AIM) is expecting Phase III results in the first quarter of 2018 for lupus treatment Lupuzor. Analysts speculate the drug could hit multi-billion dollar annual sales if the tests are successful and the drug gets approved by the regulators.

MotifBio (MTFB:AIM) believes its drug Iclaprim for serious skin infections could be approved by the US Food and Drug Administration and a product licence confirmed by the end of 2018, having recently completed the two necessary Phase III trials.

[andyr42] 29/12/2017 07:50

njb67 There are numerous companies who's share price have multiplied pharma or no pharma. Perhaps you are a late comer here but you realluy are showing yourself as 100% plonker.

hitsha1 agree relentless buying, not long now.

[kensingtoncourt] 29/12/2017 07:37

I think plenty of other companies would pay $10 billion for a drug and platform like lupuzor if it is the best ever for treating lupus, could generate multi billion dollar revenues in lupus and treat eleven or twelve other diseases. It's true there are plenty of precedents in the sector plain to see so I guess it's just a matter of waiting for the results and enjoying the ride. Their Nucant and Urelix drugs also look pretty interesting.

[hitsha1] 29/12/2017 06:41

I think we may hit £2 today there was lot of buys yesterday and still went down MM are trying to keep a lid on but for how long this is going to go ballistic in the new year all the best but it is life time opportunity to make money

[hamhamham1] 29/12/2017 06:31

njb67. I empathise with you. I am also invested and would be happy for the share price to hit 500p. That's a great return (10x recent values and still 3x current). But on this board it seems that any valuation of less than £40-100 a share gets shot down.
The truth is we don't know.
The signs are good with previous results data and the fact that another company (cephalon) was prepared to invest heavily at an even earlier stage, so I am relaxed.
Let the share price do the talking :)
Exciting times.

[top tips] 28/12/2017 23:00

If Lupuzor can really treat those 12 indications as the data suggests plus other non-autoimmune indications, it will eclipse every other drug on the planet. Going to be an interesting couple of months for IMM shareholders.