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Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Immupharma Plc | LSE:IMM | London | Ordinary Share | GB0033711010 | ORD 1P |
Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.035 | 1.55% | 2.295 | 2.27 | 2.32 | 2.28 | 2.22 | 2.28 | 605,281 | 16:35:05 |
Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Finance Services | 0 | -3.81M | -0.0114 | -1.97 | 7.5M |
Date | Subject | Author | Discuss |
---|---|---|---|
28/12/2017 15:56 | So many buys and so little price movement. Hmmmm :) | hamhamham1 | |
28/12/2017 15:47 | Its acepted knowledge that if GSK boughtout HGSi for $3.6 billion for 50% of Benlysta, and that values 100% of Benlysta at around £7 billion, which is equivalent to £40 a share for IMM. We also know Gilean's recent takeover of Kite valued every $1 billion of sales 5 years in the future at $7 billion, so the same applies. If anything Lupuzor is likely to be a multi-billion sales seller so we could be looking at multiples of $7 billion as a valuation for IMM. Money maker1 has suggested £80 for starters. IMM's previous deal with Cephalon on just Phase IIa data adds further validation to the assumption a deal or takeover will come easily. We can assume some companies have been looking at IMM since the Cephalon days when the data room was presumably first opened and have an advanced appreciation of the Company, subsequent Phase IIb data and good data in other indications, etc.. | kensingtoncourt | |
28/12/2017 15:43 | kensington - that would be nice, I do think a touch unlikely though. | njb67 | |
28/12/2017 15:42 | kensington, I'm as bullish as the next man...but £40?? That implies a mkt cap of c.£5.3bln I wouldn't be surprised to see £5+ on positive test results, with subsequent share price growth based around deals struck or offers coming in...but to think it will go to £40 just on test results is (imo) somewhat fanciful | sportbilly1976 | |
28/12/2017 15:42 | hot with respect, I think you are getting a few things muddled up here. - you are right, it is normal practice for companies to share information on medicines in development with potential commercial partners. A data room that provides access to the Lupuzor data would be common practice. It would include not only the clinical data, but information on manufacturing processes as well as potential revenue forecasts. It was through this process that Cephalon agreed a deal with IMM, it was though to be granted a licence to sell the product, not buy the company. As posted above, this type of deal could be concluded relatively quickly. In the event of another company wishing to buy IMM, then they will need to have access to all the IMM commercial information, way beyond what would be housed in the Lupuzor data room. This would take time and is painstaking/expensiv - it matters not whether NICE views Lupuzor to be any better than Benlysta. The point is that there is a review process that they conduct, which takes on average a year to complete before guidance is issued to the NHS on whether they should use the product or not. Worth noting that Solvaldi, which cures Hep C and is arguably one of the breakthrough medicines of its generation was launched in the US in 2013. It received positive NICE guidance in Dec 2015. This type of delay is common across much of Europe. - the US is though a totally different market and I would expect sales in the US to move quicker than Europe. IMM would though need to agree commercial deals with the US insurers. | njb67 | |
28/12/2017 15:40 | Sportbilly - I read the Motley Fool article as suggesting that some people who are prepared to take much bigger risks than the author might become millionaires. I didn't think it was suggesting anyone with a small punt of their portfolio in IMM would be likely to. I had far more than 10% of mine at sub £1 so am even more top heavy now! | spawny100 | |
28/12/2017 15:40 | If the results are positive IMM shares could easily open at £40 on the day given the size of the market and number of autoimmune diseases Lupuzor addresses. IMM will easily do a deal or takeover in 2018 given they did a high value deal previously based only on Phase IIa but were lucky enough to get the drug back and keep the upfront payments when Cephalon were taken-over by Teva. | kensingtoncourt | |
28/12/2017 15:31 | Sportabilly1976....I would say it depends on your net worth. If you have property, wine, cars etc to a tune of 1million and a share portfolio of 100k. If your holding in IMM is 5% of your portfolio or 5k than you are risking just 0.5% of your net worth.....50k or 50% of your portfolio would be 5% of your net worth would be an acceptable risk...TO ME! | flavio_monteiro | |
28/12/2017 15:18 | I was thinking this am on Motley Fool's article yesterday..." some shareholders may become millionaires..." Whilst it subsequently advised not having much of one's portfolio invested due to the potential binary nature I wondered what size portfolio did they envisage their target audience having for the headline & wealth warning to apply? Say 5% as a cautious approach, with IMM as the 'excitement' stock...buying today/yesterday at £1.70. A £100k portfolio would hence result in the individual having 2,941 shares. For this to then be worth £1mln would require a share price of £340!! Portfolio of £250k would follow having a share price of £136 to get to £1mln Obviously if you increase the %age of your portfolio invested here, the 'target' share price reduces as well...but for a reasonable target, as has been quoted here recently of £40-60 a share (with all boxes ticked and applying a similar multiple of takeover as seen in the Kite buyout) then this would require a portfolio of £280k with 10% being here. To me that doesn't seem your 'average' MF reader/subscriber :0 | sportbilly1976 | |
28/12/2017 15:06 | It may take 6 months or 12 months to finalise a deal, but once the market learns that company "A" is sniffing around, and the amount of money offered is leaked, as it always is. The market will react accordingly. and that could only take a month. Being a scientist does not always equate to having common sense. WJ. | w1ndjammer | |
28/12/2017 14:28 | IMM or their agent, can let an interested party into the data room as long as they sign a confidentiality agreement, without that party first putting an offer on the table. Infact, interested parties will most likely need to see the data before discussing terms, not the other way around. There is already enough data available to conclude a deal, its just that either IMM will probably now wait for the Phase 3 headline results next month to get even better terms (Cephalon originally did their superceded deal for $45m upfront [$15m + $30m] + $500m milestones, based just on Phase 2a data) or the other party(s) will want to see the results before finalising. Benlysta is not Lupuzor - you are not comparing like for like. Benlysta does not appear to have such good efficacy, safety, speed of action, price, a SPA or Fast Track status. etc. as Lupuzor - all these are in favour of Lupuzor, which should speed Lupuzor's acceptance in the market. I expect Lupuzor to at least be on the market in the US in 2018, as do IMM and I have no reason to doubt this (and possibly also Mauritius, where they are also running an arm of the trial). If Lupuzor is cheaper and better than Benlysta, then private health care policies will require practitioners to use it and anyone who can afford to buy it themselves will obviously use it. I also expect it to be used off label in other indications, particularly as it appears to be safe and free of adverse side effects. | hottingup | |
28/12/2017 14:12 | hot 1) I think we are saying the same thing. I clarified (8057) that potential co-promote parties are no doubt looking at Ph2 data. They will review the Ph3 date once available, it will need to be subject to DD before any company will commit to a commercial deal. A couple of weeks is not an unreasonable assumption. Many posters on this Board are talking about a potential takeover of the company. This would take longer to complete as IMM would only grant access to all their business information / records once they have agreed a price with a suitor that they know would have sufficient shareholder support. I would not expect any company to table an offer until after Ph3 data is released and regulatory approval has been received (or is imminent). Gilead announced a deal for Kite six weeks before FDA approval. By this stage in the regulatory process, both companies would have known that AxiCel was going to be approved. 2) IMM are describing what every pharma company does - plan ahead to minimise the time to market. This is not exceptional behaviour, it is the norm. We all do this. While IMM is preparing its FDA submission now, this can not be completed until the Ph3 data is available. I would allow around a month from the receipt of the data to the submission being sent to the FDA. 3) Yes, up to six months. Worth looking at the fastest times ever achieved under the fast track approach, this is never a rubber stamping assessment. 4) Good! However, being available and making sales are different things, as most countries have formal healthcare system appraisal processes that then need to be navigated. For example in England and Wales, NICE review new medicines before advising the NHS whether these should be routinely made available. These assessments typically take up to a year to complete and the NHS tends to wait until guidance is issued before actually purchasing a new medicine. Across Europe, there is typically a lag of 12-18 months between a medicine being available and national decisions on whether it will be funded/used. The Benlysta appraisal timelines are attached here. The original scope of the appraisal was published in Jan 2011, with initial (negative) guidance issued 13 months later. hxxps://www.nice.org | njb67 | |
28/12/2017 13:53 | Mr T , out of interest, how many shares of IMM do you own currently? | divmad | |
28/12/2017 13:52 | MrT its already been made clear Lupuzor works in low dose because it is more specifically targeted and they use a synthetically altered molecule that has a prolonged life in the blood stream. Not only has Lupuzor produced best ever Phase 2b efficacy and safety results for Lupus but there is further data supporting effectivness in several other high value indications which has been independently verified by Dr Muller sending the molecule to other labs for them to run the same tests and who have produced similar results. Sylviane Muller, Lupuzor Symposium, Jun 2016 How Lupuzor works: 15 min 40 sec: Evidence Lupuzor P140 works for other conditions: 41 min 30 sec: Efficacy with other conditions verified by other independent researchers who are experts in these diseases e.g. Crohn's disease, Asthma, etc: 45 min 50 sec: As P140 proven to be safe via the Lupuzor trials, testing of it for other conditions can start at a Phase 2b or Phase 3, meaning approval for other conditions can be less costly and accelerated timewise: 46 min 16 sec: | englishlongbow | |
28/12/2017 13:38 | You may want to ignore this post, it is my ramblings and I know some will find it devious bordering on sinister. allonblack, thanks for your comments (post 8001). I rewatched Sylviane Muller's 2016 presentation and agree she does helpfully explain Lupuzor works upstream on the T cells in a more targeted way than other Lupus medication, so a lower dose is required. I didn't learn anything from the Nobel Prize info on Autophagy though, that would explain why an extremely small dose for Lupuzor should work. I also rewatched this presentation ( from about 19mins onwards where Robert Zimmer discusses Ureka and their Urelix technology to extend the life of peptides. He says that a peptide that would traditionally need to be taken daily could be taken weekly or monthly. Although, he doesn't refer to Lupuzor in the Urelix discussion - he says cancer, diabetes and NASH are diseases where the peptide is suitable for Urelix. I'm not a biochemist, but am both a scientist and engineer who likes to understand (at least a little) how things work. The above therefore gives me more comfort in the chance of success of the Lupuzor Phase 3 trial. And as others said 200mcg of Lupuzor worked exceptionally well in Phase 2b (with caveats), and experts such as Cephalon, CNRS, the FDA, and Immupharma's Scientific Advisory Board are/have been complicitly positive and should know what they're doing. Plus the two directors Robert Zimmer and Dimitri Dimitriou have put their money where their mouth is, and Sylviane Muller has put her reputation into Lupuzor. Having said all that a 200mcg dose once per month still looks an unprecedented small dose for a drug to me though, and unusual that the higher dose of 1000mcg was less effective despite proportionally higher doses still being used effectively in mice and in vitro. You've got to throw all the data into the mix when deciding whether to take an investment risk here. One thing's for sure, I (sinisterly?) disagree with those claiming a near certain likelihood of phase 3 success. For the moment I'm happy with the risk-reward ratio but will top slice before phase 3 results if the share price advances significantly without further news. | mr. t | |
28/12/2017 12:25 | iceberg trading in flow currently...smells of II's grabbing/increasing stakes | sportbilly1976 | |
28/12/2017 12:23 | Pity those that sold on the last tree shake, just before the last rns too 😁 Anyone can add up the rough daily buys and sells to know which way this is heading. Vols picking up 02 Jan onwards Happy Happy IMM New Year! | ny boy | |
28/12/2017 12:13 | son of Nobby, less educated but the same theme........ WJ. | w1ndjammer | |
28/12/2017 11:49 | remark - ha ha. Think it time for me to retire this comb, it is getting more than its fair share of attention. folks - hope I have added some useful perspectives this morning. No investment is a slam dunk, despite what some more enthusiastic supporters would like (you) to believe, especially in pharma, which is one of the ultimate high risk, high reward industries. I believe it is a good discipline to try and deconstruct the investment case for any company, you only then start to get a sense of the risks as well as the stated (and often inflated) rewards. I ALSO TAKE WITH A HUGE AMOUNT OF SALT ANYTHING POSTED BY ANYONE WHO POSTS IN CAPITALS. GLA - I now hold 12k shares and will follow with interest. I do not often post on the BBs but happy to answer any questions if you DM me. | njb67 | |
28/12/2017 11:32 | best 1467 If results are as good as many hope, then you are right, a lot of companies will be interested. It is worth noting that most acquisitions in pharma start with a lot of potential suitors, there is no lack of interest. Potential suitors will though have strict internal parameters on how much they are prepared to pay for an acquisition. No competent Board of Directors will sanction a deal that is above "fair value" as they will be answerable to their shareholders, who are ultimately funding the acquisition. | njb67 | |
28/12/2017 11:26 | asat the obvious watch out with any fundraising is how much the company has to give away. For small caps, this can be significant. top sorry, I should have been clearer, I was referring to a takeover. yes, it is possible to have a co-marketing deal in place a lot quicker. Either way, they need someone who can help them navigate the commercial routes to market across the globe at a price they are willing to pay. | njb67 |
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