Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[hamhamham1] 23/12/2017 08:00

It would be interesting to see the percentage chance of positive outcomes when you take into consideration the FDA fasttrack and SPA. Plus the fact that the inventor was nominated for inventor of the year 2017 (EPO).
Lupuzor™ has received Fast-Track designation from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which expedites the drug’s approval process by shortening review periods. Lupuzor™ has also received FDA approval to complete its trials under Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) which effectively guarantees that the regulator will accept the trials’ results if they are positive.

[homebrewruss] 23/12/2017 07:50

It's all very well having these figures but can you compare them at all. This includes all different types of drugs, some might pass but not be significantly better than existing drugs, some have fda fastrack status, some don't etc etc.

[divmad] 23/12/2017 07:39

So 36% of these trials fail to advance to product registration then. Hmmm.

[l0ngterm] 22/12/2017 23:54

Some figures and independent research on novel compounds etc."examined more than 9,200 novel compounds that were developed from 1996 through 2014.""From 2012 through 2014, the likelihood that a Phase 3 study would advance to product registration was 64 percent, up from 60 percent during the previous three-year period."https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2016/06/13/clinical-trials-drug-development/

[happyman7] 22/12/2017 23:08

Thank you best1467 and Mr T for your replies. I'll wrap it up there, i think. I see your take on the bb.

[best1467] 22/12/2017 22:00

Happy man If you do some reasearch you will find many companies that have had positive p2 results only to fail in p3 it's a fact .The lupus reasearch fund in the states posted a list of several companies that all had drugs that failed in p3 that showed potential in p2.
But I would add that none had the same meachanisam of action as lupuzor or showed anywhere near the amazing safety profile.For that reason
I think lupuzor could get to market with even less efficacy than was shown in the p2b and In my view it would still be a preferred treatment ahead of benlysta.

[happyman7] 22/12/2017 19:46

Mr T, ok, so in the last trials , the patients performed no better than the fake drug, i presume that in the previous trials, that this was not the case, is that right? and
if that was the case, i wonder what on earth was going right beforehand that did not go to plan in the last and most important trial. Did they go to improve the drugvand do some other trial OR WAS THAT IT, FINISHED, UP THE SWANEE WITHOUT A PADDLE.
And were the Management in these failed phase 3 companies, so confident and optimistic in the run up tp final results and offering all sorts of options like the IMM Management are doing?
I would be grateful, Mr T for your futher reponse, thanks.

Toptips, thanks for your postings, in particular, the one about BENLYSTA, remarkable upswing in share price.Ppeople are comparing LUPUZOR very favourably with BENLYSTA.........." SO FAR " ....... Now , what could go wrong, could all these results from phase1/2 go pear shaped for whatever reason.

[ny boy] 22/12/2017 19:06

Nice close, merry Xmas everyone, off to warmer climes soon back late January

All the action kicks off January, should be an exciting ride north, IMM said everything is on track, so,let’s be prepared for some sizeable gains!

[mr. t] 22/12/2017 18:41

happyman7, what went wrong in those trials is that the patients who took the drug showed no improvement compared to those that took the placebo. The drugs did not work. What more do you expect to hear?

[top tips] 22/12/2017 18:40

"In Mar 2009, HGSi shares (on their 50% stake in lupus drug Benlysta) were $0.45, becoming $3.23 (market cap $528m) early Jul 2009 just before PIII Benlysta results, $12.51 (market cap of $2 billion+) at close on results day late Jul 2009, and $34.49 ($6.46 billion market cap, as there was also some dilution) at peak in Apr 2010 = 76x return over 13 months from peak low to peak high."

[top tips] 22/12/2017 18:36

If the efficacy of both Lupuzor and Benlysta improved with time, I personally don't see anything wrong with prof bb's extrapolation of Lupuzor's Phase 2b figures to 9 or 12 months - and it is just an extrapolation, with a couple of ?? at the end. Interesting point though. Even if we end up with 70% that would be amazing.


professor bang bang
22 Dec '17 - 12:47 - 7926 of 7945

Improvement rates with Lupuzor

Phase 2b at 3 months = + 67.6%
Phase 2b at 6 months = + 84.2%
Phase 3 at 9 - 12 months = + 100% ??

For me its not now about whether lupuzor works but just how big the improvement will be at 9 and 12 months.

N.B.
Resetting the Autoreactive Immune System with a Therapeutic Peptide in Lupus
Prof. Sylvian Muller
Lupus (2015) 24, pg 412–418

"The phase IIb trial showed that after three months of therapy (three subcutaneous injections of 200 ug peptide/patient in addition to standard of care), Lupuzor improved Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index score of lupus patients under active treatment by 67.6% versus 41.5% in the placebo group (p<0.025). After three additional months of follow-up, the improvement rate was 84.2% versus 45.8% (p<0.025). The side effect profile was unproblematic and the drug was well tolerated as evidenced by a very low drop-out rate."

www.lupuzor.com/Documents/Schall%20Muller%20Lupus%202015.pdf

[top tips] 22/12/2017 18:29

Shares Magazine
Small caps poised for big news in 2018:
We look at 19 stocks primed to deliver major events in their career
21/12/2017



"Drug developer ImmuPharma (IMM) is expecting Phase III results in the first quarter of 2018 for lupus treatment Lupuzor. Analysts speculate the drug could hit multi-billion dollar annual sales if the tests are successful and the drug gets approved by the regulators."

--------------------

Shares magazine
Why the drug space is looking more attractive
Shares in parts of the sector are rising and there is a rich stream of news flow in the coming months
Thur 26 Oct 2017
Author: Lisa-Marie Janes



It has been a volatile few years for the healthcare industry with several headwinds acting as a drag on performance, including the threat of drug pricing caps and healthcare reform in the US. Is life now getting better?

The NASDAQ Biotech index in early October traded at its highest level since December 2015. On the UK stock market, shares in many drug makers have been in a rising trend since late summer 2017.

Panmure Gordon has even upgraded its stance on the pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and healthcare sector to ‘positive&rsquo;, believing the next nine months to be a strong period for UK life science company news.

‘Multiple significant trial readouts are expected, companies are generally well funded and many of the headwinds seen in previous quarters are easing,’ says analyst Julie Simmonds.

Trump turns attention to tax

Simmonds believes many headwinds that dragged on the performance of the overall sector such as the attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act in the US and drug pricing pressures are easing.

‘Healthcare reform in the US is moving to the back burner to be replaced by tax reform, which could have a more positive outcome for the sector,’ says the analyst.

The pressure on pharmaceutical companies to cut drug prices has receded as an immediate threat, but Simmonds flags companies will need to remain conscious on prices at launch and if they choose to hike prices.

This could lead to a more imaginative approach to pricing such as patients not paying if the drug is not effective within a specific time period.

What's happening with UK-listed drug companies?

Simmonds believes ‘rapidly moving technologies’ are behind the positive performance of parts of the UK quoted healthcare sector, pointing to upcoming Phase III results from firms such as ImmuPharma (IMM:AIM).

ImmuPharma is undergoing its Phase III trial for lead treatment Lupuzor with results expected in the first quarter of 2018. Lupuzor is anticipated to have blockbuster potential and is considered safer and more effective than GlaxoSmithKline&rsquo;s (GSK) Benlysta.

The drug treats lupus by modifying the behaviour of certain key cells involved in the development of the disease, which can be fatal as it causes the body to make antibodies that attack healthy tissue.

Shares in ImmuPharma have nearly doubled in price this year to 97p as investors anticipate positive results from the study.

What news will continue to drive a strong performance?

One of the key catalysts for any company working in the biopharma industry are trial readouts, specifically Phase III results. A strong outcome can lead to approval from healthcare authorities. These include the US Food and Drug Administration or European Medicines Agency.

In the run up to results, investors tend to jump on the bandwagon and ride the share price momentum. There are several Phase III results expected in the next nine months, with some expected as early as the first quarter of 2018.

These include ImmuPharma, Faron Pharmaceutical&rsquo;s (FARN:AIM) Traumakine treatment for acute respiratory distress syndrome and Shield Therapeutics’ (STX:AIM) Feraccru for treating iron deficiency anaemia.

[happyman7] 22/12/2017 18:12

i think, whilst the bitcoin is huge for certain investors, as a whole, it is really miniscule to the general world econmomy and so personally, i dont think a bitcoin bubble burst will have any material impact in the wider world market, since you have raised the question, perfect pete have you got anything to say on the matter?

[happyman7] 22/12/2017 18:08

best1467, you found Mt T's post 'very good'. To be frank, he just copied and pasted a report. In his absence, perhaps you can describe in a couple of sentences what went wrong in those failed approvals, only those reports seemed quite daunting to read from my point of view.
PS,to be fair, i think all this copying and pasting from BOTH SIDES is a bit much.

[perfect pete] 22/12/2017 18:01

How much of an impact on the wider markets do we think the bitcoin bubble burst could have?

[best1467] 22/12/2017 17:53

MR T Unless you mention the usual it is very unlikely you get a response on the board of late but very good post.Im heavily invested here solely from a value point of view quite preapared to lose 60000.00 to potentially make 6 million I think the odds are favourable.

[happyman7] 22/12/2017 17:51

zaza/jpleight regarding your recent postings, do you mean about stop losses that you had put a figure in to sell and for some reason it did not work 5 times when it apparently reached that chosen figure or is that completely up the creek, only i dont really understand your post in reality. And re the 45p bit, does that mean someone has put a buy order in for 10,000 shares at a hopeful 45p?, as you can see i do not have level 2.
Certainly with this share, IMM, the movement at right at the end of usually each the day is something to behold, when a real bit of action can take place and all in about 30 seconds, where the share can end up all of a sudden with a mfairly mighty dip or contrastly, a sharp upward move, as per today. Nothing can happen and then something happens.

[happyman7] 22/12/2017 17:39

Thanks L0ngterm, thanks for the reply. Not like for like, i suppose the Benlysta results phase 2 were worse than Lupuzor phase 2, which can be compared? Phase 2 and 3 are quite different, i guess ?
Did Benlysta pass Phase 3 first time and get the USA approval easily enough. And whoever owned the rights to Benlysta, what route did it's share price take, eg, did it get taken out/was the share price booming before the end.
Are there any experts out there who can answer these possibly naive questions.
It would be nice in any reply to have any answers translated into layman terrminolgy.
After your last post Mr T, it would good to hear from you and prefarably not cut and paste but an explanation in your own words.

[jpleight] 22/12/2017 16:35

cheers man merry christmas!

[zaza] 22/12/2017 16:12

Nothing to worry about jp, there is a bid for 10k shares left on level 2 at 45p which must be what your broker is using as it's closing price.

[jpleight] 22/12/2017 16:03

my broker just failed 5 stop lossess I had for IMM and is valuing imm at 45 gbx at the mo. what is that about?? rgrgr

[l0ngterm] 22/12/2017 15:53

Worth adding and from memory, the follow up after phase IIB for lupuzor after the trial was 80% plus.

[l0ngterm] 22/12/2017 15:50

Others are still in trials awaiting results phase II etc. and lupuzor phase three results are to be released. But the table below compares lupuzor and benlysta. Lupuzor phase IIB to benlysta phase iii.Results: Clinical studies results:  P140 Benlysta mannitol. (BLISS-76)Duration of treatment 3 months vs 12 monthsNumber of patients x arms 50 x 3 273 x 3SAE active/placebo 6%/6% 19%/20% Drop-out rate active 5% 23%Drop-out rate placebo 16% 25% Responder rate active 62% 43%Responder rate placebo 37% 33%

[happyman7] 22/12/2017 15:37

Now Mr T (or anyone) regards that other drug for Lupus patients, Ben?, that is crrently being on sale not meant to be anywhere near as good as IMM's drug, regards efficy and side effects, do you know how that drug compares to the IMM drug, at a comparable stage, ie in the last stage of phase 3