Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[colsmith] 22/6/2023 13:41

Question is guys - if the 1st P3 had been carried out three times would the result be:

- 3 fail, or 1 pass, or 2 pass, or 3 pass? Maybe the issue highlighted here is that the testing regime the industry uses is: - lucky to pass and the stuff isn't much good (or worse), or unlucky to fail and the stuff works.

IMO the useful action from the original P3 would be to start a use on market, could even be a Covid like emergency use, to get a so called real world result. After all it seems the stuff has, at the dosage level used, no or very little negative effect. Industry was very keen to get a real world Covid result! So regulators seem to have some interesting approval for market use!

The risk reward currently for the P3 test seems a good bet which is why trading until result would seem a good policy.

Supper's comment is perhaps the most practical on:

"First you aren't yet proven right - it will take a successful trial to be able to say that, and even then one would have to ask was it the increased dosing, or the narrower selection of patients, or something else entirely...?

[lord loads of lolly] 22/6/2023 12:03

Yes. By "worked", he meant it didn't kill anyone!

[nobbygnome] 22/6/2023 10:33

Plus the statement in an interview after the failed phase III that the drug ‘worked’ was unforgivable! McCarthy has a lot to answer for….

[lord loads of lolly] 22/6/2023 10:26

supernumerary - McCarthy has frequently misled investors in presentations & interviews. Remember the time he told us they could plough on, regardless of the FDA outcome? Only to find the FDA gave them comprehensive guidance (which it would have been commercial suicide to ignore, as any trial was sure to fail, short of following the guidance). So now - belatedly - they are. And you STILL respect him?!

[bumpa33] 22/6/2023 09:52

Nobby - clinical trials are a graveyard for wannabe drug solutions period ffs 🤦‍a94;️

[supernumerary] 21/6/2023 21:40

Oh dear Nobby, I would have thought you of all people would have known that pride is one of the seven deadly sins, and act accordingly?

First you aren't yet proven right - it will take a successful trial to be able to say that, and even then one would have to ask was it the increased dosing, or the narrower selection of patients, or something else entirely...?

And second, your constant denigration of McCarthy is, as I've already pointed out, utterly misplaced. He has, almost singlehandedly, kept this company alive: if anybody is to blame for the failed trials, it's the scientists, not him. I've no love for the guy but at least he's done his job, they haven't.

[colsmith] 21/6/2023 17:28

There is a reason for keeping price low, if that is what is going on, as another possibility from my 38543 - stimulate corporate action of some kind, such as some entity is interested in buying for what at £8Mcap is in relative terms small; one could see a large Pharma could buy for peanuts on the basis it passes, but if it doesn't its only £8M - probably a good bet?

PS - Lords "until something comes along that works" but it seems works only in statistical terms as the precise action of many/most all drugs is only known through dark glasses - the body is amazing complex system! In that sense it seems the test are usually one shot at P3 in that it could pass or fail; perhaps it should be the best of 3 P3's running concurrently - costly though; 2 out of 3 or ideally 3 out of 3 but 2 passes adequate.

[nobbygnome] 21/6/2023 14:53

Just for old time sake, here is the relevant post from 4th September 2017….

[lord loads of lolly] 21/6/2023 14:25

nobbygnome - couldn't you say that about any disease though? Littered with failed drug trials until something eventually comes along that works. Drugs generally cost a fortune because research & trials are so expensive & fallout rates so high. BTW, I've just posted on IMM's LSE board, where it was asked how anyone could know higher dosages would be required. Referred them to your multiple posts of many moons ago!

[nobbygnome] 21/6/2023 13:45

Well Bumpa if you look at the overall stats for clinical trials in lupus, you would find it is a graveyard for drugs. Add in that Lupuzor has failed before spectacularly, then the chances of success are already small…..

[bumpa33] 21/6/2023 12:16

Maybe they’ve learnt from their mistakes Nobby.

Otherwise you better give both IMM and Avion a call and tell ‘em not to bother with it!

[nobbygnome] 21/6/2023 11:58

Incidentally I don’t disagree that the price could well rise ahead of the results in late 2026/early 2027. However there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge before then…..and you would be very brave to hold for the actual results

[nobbygnome] 21/6/2023 11:46

On the contrary shareholders need to question the current board about how they wasted £millions on a trial which was never going to work? Do you trust them to deliver a successful trial this time? Yes Avion are running the trial but they have no experience in lupus which in itself is revealing; IMM could not get a deal with any company which actually worked in the area! I wonder why….

And don’t quote that the FDA have passed the trial so it must be ok. That was said on multiple occasions last time and was proved to be complete bunkum!

[bumpa33] 21/6/2023 11:16

Past is the past Nobby, question is where does IMM go from here now with the long awaited FDA approval for Lupuzor trial…?

Maybe you’d get more recognition if you turned the volume control on your ego down a notch or two. Just a suggestion :)

[nobbygnome] 21/6/2023 10:43

>> Bumpa

An acknowledgment from you I was correct after examining the evidence would be sufficient reward! TIA

[bumpa33] 21/6/2023 10:36

I’m amazed you haven’t won a Nobel prize for your services to medicine Nobby, absolutely gobsmacked even.

[colsmith] 21/6/2023 10:28

Interesting trading - has been traded over the months with news flow expected, look at AT in particular. Now news is looking towards start of trial as path to pass or fail obviously. Question is I suppose will trading stick at the current level of share price or lift and churn at a higher level - I suppose if at a higher level more to be made? From this mindset as possibility to pass is say 50% it seems this is a good trading stock as potential sales of product if pass means large revenue. MCAP of £8M suggest there is room for lift off at least until the result is known.

[nobbygnome] 21/6/2023 10:25

My first post about the insufficient level of drug was made in September 2017 yet here we are in June 2023. Finally the company has acknowledged what I determined almost 6 years ago that the dose was not nearly high enough. Amazing the Chairman at that time has not taken any responsibility for this failure…..

[purple11] 21/6/2023 10:19

its unlikely they have it imho

if the news was good they would have released it straightaway like they did last time

a very risky binary punt

not for my money gl

[thordon] 19/6/2023 20:11

For me a calculated punt , its in the draw for the future.
Have to say there is evidence this works from previous data however Nobbygnowme is correct in stating the low dose levels warnings and need for higher levels.

[roberth176] 19/6/2023 08:51

Cbx could do 50.% east

[1bond] 19/6/2023 08:50

I don't disagree that results will be some time off, but we are now in a situation where we have 1 fully funded Phase II/III asset progressing, and the CIDP asset. Plenty of news to look out for along the journey now. Commercial agreements outside of the US, rest of the world rights, and a commercial agreement/partner to take CIDP forward. There is a case for this being very undervalued at £10m

[nobbygnome] 19/6/2023 08:36

To be clear the last study took 2 years 4 months from the opening of the first sites to reporting of the results. Now that was a straight phase III recruiting only 200 patients. This time we have an adaptive phase II/III which will need to recruit more patients and by definition be adapted along the way. Therefore undoubtedly it will take significantly longer which is why I estimate early 2027 although I concede 4th quarter 2026 might just be possible

[nobbygnome] 19/6/2023 08:27

Explain to me how….