Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[nobbygnome] 13/10/2022 11:28

Not sure how you say previous tests suggest ‘the stuff works’. The drug has never met a primary endpoint in any trial properly conducted to a conclusion. I maintain at the dose they are using Lupuzor is extremely unlikely to work and it appears the FDA agrees with me!

[colsmith] 13/10/2022 10:29

IMM may well have a good product but strategically the company are naïve. The US has been a graveyard for UK companies, such as TESCO, Sainsbury and probably many others. The one trick FDA shot or nothing was as I se it naïve as they are now as Lord says skint, or nearly so. Maybe they should have gone for a French company and seek EU approval at least that would have given another path. The share price is in the bog but maybe doing a deal with another company such as they had with TEVA years ago and CNRS are French would have been a good practical way forward even if some rights had been forfeited.

The real shame in all this is that if the stuff works for most people and previous tests, over years, suggest that is the case then patients are being hung out to dry by the FDA, who could have said, much as they did for COVID stuff, that wasn't tested to normal procedures but put on market to test on people , put on market on an emergency basis or whatever term the industry uses for market before P3. And if the side effects are minimal what is the risk provided of course patients are given the information in an open and honest way before agreeing to take.

[lord loads of lolly] 13/10/2022 09:12

nobbygnome - thanks for the link. I've since found it's also available here without having to register: The terrible Tims did say they could already proceed to Phase 3, as the protocol had been agreed by the FDA. But they also said the FDA wanted a PK Study and that it was sensible to do this, as a) it doesn't pay to ignore - hence upset - your regulator & b) Phase 3 approval wouldn't be granted without it. I guess the same applies to where we are now. They could ignore the FDA's recommendations & plough on as is. But that would likely lead to yet another failed Phase 3, which IMHO would spell the end of IMM. So in my book, their future now basically hinges on whether Avion will countenance the delay & extra funds needed to comply with the FDA's additional recommendations. Someone on LSE implied Avion would proceed, as they'd have said by now if they intended pulling out. But I don't think it's that clearcut. Even if they do plan to keep calm & carry on, they're probably trying to negotiate more territories out of IMM as payback. And being close to skint, IMM really wouldn't have much option but to agree.

[lord loads of lolly] 12/10/2022 22:43

In English?

[tenniselbow] 12/10/2022 17:08

Look what landtead dudvfor VRS

[nobbygnome] 12/10/2022 16:47

In fact with hindsight there are various ironic parts in the presentation. For example Tim talks about it being the right time to do the Lanstead deal because he was expecting the price to go to 30p which means the company gets more money…..ho hum

[nobbygnome] 12/10/2022 16:45

I listened back and he did say the FDA gave approval a year ago….it’s about 48-49 mins into the presentation during the Q&A

[lord loads of lolly] 12/10/2022 12:46

colsmith - saying they could progress a P3 regardless is NOT the same as saying the FDA had already given approval (which Nobby implies). Hence my request for a link to the interview in question so we can all listen to exactly what Tim said at the time. It's important because if he can be proved to have misled investors, there's a case for him to answer to the FCA.

[colsmith] 12/10/2022 10:58

lord - I believe Nobby is correct - he did say they could progress a P3 but chose not to as FDA were gatekeeps (my words).

Tim should do an interview to update and whether FDA as Avion see it have a real issue with the proposed P3 plan; and if Tim was correct in what he said why an earlier FDA lot said it could go head. If its just more of the stuff pumped in why do the experts differ? There's strong evidence to support the view the stuff works such as the long pedigree from CNRS, and previous phases of testing, on the other hand like anything a singe test may fail whilst a second test with the same profile passes. I guess there are so many variables - such as have the folks on a failed test been on holiday on a 747 fight whilst on a previous test all the folks were at home during the winter; you get the meaning although the example is trivial. So an interesting question could be - if the previous P3 test were repeated what would be the results be - bearing in mind P2 passed.

I guess I'm a sceptic but the whole aspect of testing seems at best advisory and at worst gives the wrong result - be that a pas or fail. Maybe it would be the best of 3? Of course the gatekeepers hold the key like all these regulators and their decision may be based on many things.

Sorry a brain dump but this story has so many twists and turns - its like a computer game where the good guy just keeps being stopped by a villain jumping out of the bush.

[lord loads of lolly] 11/10/2022 22:01

I’m not sure those were Tim’s exact words Nobby, though I agree he gave a very misleading impression. Do you have a link to his statement, so we can listen to it again?

[nobbygnome] 11/10/2022 17:44

Strange that Tim hasn’t done another Proactive interview explaining his statement that approval had already been received from the FDA! The man is a charlatan…..and I wouldn’t normally make such a statement about a CEO on a public BB but in his case it is entirely justified!

[criticalthinker1] 11/10/2022 16:49

Well x2 PMEs after 1630. Prior to that some offloading.
RNS tomorrow?
Personally I feel this is being deliberately talked down....

[lord loads of lolly] 11/10/2022 14:45

colsmith - True, though due diligence is always just a best estimate of how things will pan out. Not being privvy to past meetings between the FDA & Avion/IMM, investors can't really say if the FDA's current "reservations" were to be anticipated. For all we know, they may have given out completely different signals previously (though I somehow doubt it!). I don't think Avion fears the costs of jumping through further hoops - followed by a successful P3 trial - would outweigh eventual US rights revenues. Trouble is, they can't tell whether the next P3 WOULD be successful, even if they jumped through all the hoops. Therein lies their dilemma. Which is probably why it's taking them so long to update us.

[colsmith] 11/10/2022 10:01

lord re your "The only question left is whether Avion funds the revisions or pulls the plug."

Indeed, however, if they don't fund then that means their due diligence wasn't due at all. In a sense it would be illogical not to fund as it would admit their experts weren't that all, or that the cost of funding new P3 wasn't worth it as the cash generated (in the US) by the product wasn't adequate. of course if they really believe it should pass P3 then another track is open to them to negotiate rights in different territories as IMM are under the cosh without them!

Sure is a strange world - new technology(mRna) not tried on humans before and given to billions gets the checkered flag without anything more than a belief in the company papers whilst a mino is under the microscope.

[alancapone] 10/10/2022 21:29

The ramping crew TMS are here. The price will go up.

[lord loads of lolly] 10/10/2022 18:00

colsmith - they obviously won't go through with P3 as originally planned. That would just be p*!ssing more money away. The only question left is whether Avion funds the revisions or pulls the plug.

[colsmith] 10/10/2022 17:29

The only strange thing to me is that 1 group of experts (Avion) are prepared to pay 25M$ for P3 after what seems to be due diligence on the previous P3 result. However another group of experts (FDA) who don't have any fiscal interest in IMM and can therefore make a decision based on something, but whether P3 fails or succeeds doesn't affect FDA peoples pay check so to speak. I still take the view that the FDA are delaying matters because if P3 went ahead on Avion plan and failed so what but if it passed is that good news for others? who knows but it still seems there is hope but with delay.

I guess Avion and IMM are in a difficult position - should they go ahead with P3 as planned or do as FDA advise, because the coded FDA position is that if you want it pass then we need you to do this, or to put another way if you go ahead with P3 as planned we wont approve even if it meets end points.

[ribbo8788y] 10/10/2022 13:36

!FOLLOWFEED

[burtond1] 10/10/2022 10:12

Is Immupharma worth a punt ask @TMSreach "...With IMM's stock now priced less than 3p, and the approval process – though delayed – still on the tracks, is now the time to take a stake? IMM has never been cheaper. Positive news – whenever it may come – may inject new value into a share worth 7p just a couple of months ago..."https://total-market-solutions.com/2022/10/immupharma-plc/

[supernumerary] 09/10/2022 17:05

It's a fault in the design of the TR-1 that it doesn't show the change in the number of shares held, only the percentage, so as you quite rightly say it could easily be a recalculation of the same holding. One would need to do the sums, which I frankly cannot be bothered with.

Interesting that McCarthy put his own money into the Incanthera financing.

[cap160] 09/10/2022 13:05

Incanthera issued more shares and warrants to meet contractual commitments so I believe it's a dilution as opposed to a sale by imm

[supernumerary] 09/10/2022 12:26

Imm reduced in Incanthera not the other way round. A small sale, but I've also been wondering if it means anything. Perhaps they're going to give the money back to Incanthera, which looks like it needs it. The sort of roundabout financing I can imagine McCarthy would love ;¬)

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 09/10/2022 00:05

What did you make of Incanthera reducing?(I have no position here)