Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[bloomberg2] 11/3/2024 08:08

Paul Scott effect!!! He's took a punt pos fame

[bingham] 07/3/2024 15:48

Shush!Shush!

[stockriser] 06/3/2024 15:26

Tks SK - Great interview

[lord loads of lolly] 06/3/2024 12:20

nobbygnome - You say IMM looks cheap, is priced to fail and that its holding & warrants in Incanthera could prove a significant asset.

So despite your reservations about any imminent deals to provide upfront cash, do you regard IMM as over or under valued at its current level (post-today's uptick)?

Notwithstanding McCarthy's pre-disposition to - ahem - exaggerate, I view today's RNS as a major positive.

Assuming he doesn't totally go back on his word in a few weeks' time (admittedly a big assumption), surely the major fear that IMM was about to go bust has been dispelled. For now at least. To me, this is now a share to hold & sell closer to (but importantly before!) any trial readout.

Your thoughts?

[the imperialist] 06/3/2024 09:54

End of dilution!

Nothing to see here :-)

[colsmith] 06/3/2024 09:49

RNS seems to be a balanced view on where the company is and where it could go; a more measured view to the market based on the look forward activity and fiscal position. Regular updates on progress should underpin the view of the RNS and provide confidence on the trajectory outlined in the RNS.

[sicilian_kan] 06/3/2024 09:08

Avion is investing $25 million in the P3 that is starting this year. That investment alone is worth multiples of the current market cap.

[nobbygnome] 06/3/2024 09:01

And I agree Icanthera could be a significant asset….

[nobbygnome] 06/3/2024 09:01

The last upfront was a big fact ZERO so it would be difficult for it to be lower….

[ny boy] 06/3/2024 09:00

Nobby, start another Guild lol

Jeez… is that McCarthy still drawing his pension, this one is going nowhere but down, with jittery dead cat bounces

[sicilian_kan] 06/3/2024 09:00

P.S. They already have two deals, on US rights in Lupuzor with P3 fully funded, and 10% of Incancthera that has a deal with the worlds largest international health and beauty retailer. This is just not factored into the share price.

[sicilian_kan] 06/3/2024 08:59

Because they will structure the deal differently. On Lupuzor US rights, they focused on royalty rates getting double digit tiered up to 17%. I suspect they will reduce that a little on CIPD to get a bigger up front payment.

[nobbygnome] 06/3/2024 08:55

You make some good points S_K but you are definitely over egging the pudding. Pre clinical programs are of little interest to Pharma so don’t expect any upfront if they get a deal there. And why do you think CIDP will get a significant upfront when SLE got zero upfront?

I don’t dispute it looks cheap if they actually achieve some sort of deal but….

[sicilian_kan] 06/3/2024 08:46

Outstanding RNS. Remember IMM is currently priced to go bust, despite holding significant assets and today it being confirmed that there are no current plans to raise equity and that future cash requirements are expected to be non dilutive from up front payments in new commercial deals with unpartnered assets. Active discussions / a bread range of discussions confirmed.

Among the assets are:

1. Fully funded P3 trial for Lupuzor, which IMM has double digit tiered royalties on up to 17% and milestone payments, whilst retaining all non-US rights that they hope to partner on this year. The US only deal itself is worth more than the current market cap, let alone the ROW rights that they can sell.

2. They have the worldwide rights for Lupuzor in CIPD that can go straight into a P2/3 and which they hope to partner on. Again, any deal would dwarf the current market cap. Orphan drug status being submitted which again would provide a large boost to the share price even before a deal.

3. The worldwide rights for BioAMB, an anti-infective program that they also hope to partner on. Part 1 of new dose ranging study in animal model complete and no toxisity. Moving to Part 2. Intial partnering discussions have commenced.

4. IMM owns 10.8% (as well as 7.3m warrants) in Incanthera, which concluded a significant commercial skincare deal with part of the AS Watson Group. This is the world's largest international health and beauty retailer owning brands like Superdrug, The Perfume Shop and many others. Significant revenues and profitability are expected to commence for Incanthera in 2024.

5. Overheads reduced by more than 75% since the new business plan came in.

All for a market cap of £4.7m. Yes, sub £5m market cap, with no funding needs, for double digit royalties in a fully funded P3 trial, 100% of ROW rights to sell for that trial, 100% of CIDP worldwide rights to sell for the same drug to go into P2/3 trial, 10.8% share of a company expected to generate revenues and profitability this year with a partnership with the world's largest international health and beauty retailer, anti-infective progress and partnership discussions having commenced, and overheads reduced by 75%.

It is in my view one of the most undervalued companies on AIM. It should easily have a market cap of £20m in its current position, or around 5p. And that is before any deals are done.

[nobbygnome] 06/3/2024 08:12

This is a classic McCarthy over optimistic statement.

The anti infective is preclinical and Pharma always prefer to see clinical data before they sign on the dotted line. So the chances of getting a significant upfront for this program is absolutely minimal!

With regards to the P140 programs well you have to remember it’s soiled goods because it spectacularly failed its first phase III. Also IMM received no upfront payment from Elan even though in theory it’s a phase III ready drug so it’s hard to believe they will get any significant upfront for the second indication. Ironically the best chance to raise money is the holding in Incanthera which is nothing to do with IMM directly because that looks like it could succeed in the short term.

So I don’t hold out much hope for significant deals providing upfront cash to keep the company going in the short term. However you have to say the company is priced to fail and any half decent deal could well precipitate a rise in the price!

[stockriser] 01/3/2024 10:27

Yes it's a crazy Mcap - it cracks me up when watching Dragons Den and some of the valuations individuals give their companies lol.

[colsmith] 01/3/2024 10:16

Interesting the way this is being walked down. I read piece in the DM about UK companies being taken over from overseas (link) and it occurred to me that at £3.6M cap IMM could be taken over for an amount that is spare change.

[chesty1] 19/2/2024 15:40

Whose gonna be the one switching out the lights here???

[the imperialist] 19/2/2024 11:55

It's been said many times that the guy isn't to be trusted.

[value viper] 19/2/2024 11:46

This is chronicTM should be forced to quitNo news for nearly 6 monthsUnacceptableWhen will trial actually start - no confidence will even be this yearWhere is news on apparently the other parts of the businessNow at 1p which is the nominal value Market seems to be making it very clear what it thinks

[lord loads of lolly] 08/2/2024 11:20

nobby - agreed. Though as I posted on 6th Feb, assuming the trial still proceeds with Avion's full funding, I suspect IMM's share price will rise significantly at some stage within the next two years or so, closer to readout. This is less in McCarthy's hands now than at any time previously.

In the unlikely event it met its endpoints, IMM's share price would go stratospheric. Otherwise, it's likely to be RIP IMM, IMHO.

[nobbygnome] 08/2/2024 08:37

You have to say that on the face of it a market cap of around £5 million is ridiculous for a company that has a drug about to go into phase III. However it’s the spectre of the serial failure of McCarthy in this field which puts me off even thinking about an investment here.

[dr biotech] 07/2/2024 15:10

I've not looked at this for some time LLOL. I used to own a lot of Biotechs as thats my field (or was) and I basically bought a whole stack of different bios that virtually all failed. Good luck if your in here we could do with some successes.

[blackhorse23] 07/2/2024 14:49

https://www.alliancepharmaceuticals.com/investors/shareholder-centre/significant-shareholders/