I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[buffythebuffoon] 29/5/2018 16:29

Begorrah, are you buying?

Buffy

[caters] 29/5/2018 16:21

The 30th Round was only announced last Wednesday.

I'm sure the BoD are getting on with sorting out funding but it will surely take a litte bit of time, I'd expect.

[jon1962] 29/5/2018 15:31

Would be better to have done a rights issue at 90p clear these cln's out!

[begorrah88] 29/5/2018 15:25

So far, in May alone, about 20% of the company stock has changed hands (30% if you exclude the 13m held by GH & NC) yet only about 610000 (1.6% to total stock) has been confirmed as being sold by previously notified significant holders.Odd

[coscos] 29/5/2018 14:21

Hopefully it'll give them a kick up the backside to get on with funding news.

[begorrah88] 29/5/2018 13:49

Looks like someone tired of seeing their gains dribbling away

113880 sell @92p

It has looked likely to fall today as each of the buys during the day was getting cheaper as the sellers tussle to be first in line for any buys that were coming in

It was an odd amount for Nicolas Mathys to sell the other day so maybe he has left a sell order with the MM's

If it wasn't for the expected funding announcement I'd be very troubled by the speed of the fall back since the licensing award

Don't know what has happened to the chart above because it is incorrect. Now 92-94p

[caters] 29/5/2018 13:03

From a risk-management point-of-view, I like the idea of appraising Phase 2 East first, getting whatever oil that's there hooked up quickly and producing. It's likely that there will be sufficient oil to be commercial. This will be the extended Phase 1 production.

Once Phase 1 is up and running, then I3E can move into the more adventurous period of exploring/appraising Phase 2 West and the other prospect(s) within the new licence.

[cashandcard] 29/5/2018 12:14

Caters #1939

-- A Liberator West appraisal well is being planned for late 2018 (into the Contingent Resource area), with i3's Competent Person, AGR TRACS International Limited ("AGR"), estimating a 70% chance of finding commercial hydrocarbon volumes"



Thanks, that puts the matter to bed, into the contingent resource area.



Cash

[cashandcard] 29/5/2018 12:10

Caters,


Having gone over the RNS and CPR again, I would probably agree, if reserves are to be developed via this well, then its probably for phase 2 East with the GCoS you mention above.

Its an interesting question, what other potential the block holds? If I'm not mistaken, the south-eastern portion is host to a discovery that flowed oil (wester ross, 13/23-1).

Cash

[thegreatgeraldo] 29/5/2018 11:56

cashandcard
29 May '18 - 11:15 - 1935 of 1940

I was under the impression the firm well was to test the entire structure; this would mean testing phase 2 West, not phase 2 East (which is considered contingent resources). This is from the RNS;

Cash, I was responding to your comment above. The upcoming well is just to test phase 2 east.

[caters] 29/5/2018 11:51

I think the JV partner is only interested in known oil and is willing to take a punt on the amount of oil in Phase 2 East.

[caters] 29/5/2018 11:48

From I3E's 30th Round licence award RNS:

"Liberator West adds 22 MMBO Mid-case 2C Contingent Resources (ie, Phase 2 East) and 47 MMBO Mid-case Prospective Resources (ie, Phase 2 West) to the Company's currently held 11 MMBO of 2P Reserves

-- A Liberator West appraisal well is being planned for late 2018 (into the Contingent Resource area), with i3's Competent Person, AGR TRACS International Limited ("AGR"), estimating a 70% chance of finding commercial hydrocarbon volumes"

nb, my additions are emboldened.

[cashandcard] 29/5/2018 11:46

tgg,


No, just Phase 2 West, East is considered discovered.


Cash

[caters] 29/5/2018 11:41

Cash,

You're right in that all of Phase 2 East and Phase 2 West is called 'Liberator West'.

According to the CPR, Phase 2 East has a gCOS of 70% but that is not a question of whether oil is there but whether sufficient oil is there to be commercial.

Again, according to the CPR, Phase 2 West has a gCOS of 56% (which became 51% when the 90% chance of acquiring the licence was applied).

As the well planned for Q4/18 has a gCOS of 70%, it sounds like Phase 2 East is the target area. That would make sense to drill it as a producer - it's the volume of oil, not the presence, that is in question.

An exploration well rather than an appraisal well is needed for Phase 2 West, imho, as the presence of oil has not been confirmed. If there is oil there (56% chance), then the volume will be large enough to go stand alone.

It sounds as if there is a further prospect within the new licence that isn't either Phase 2 East or Phase 2 West. I wonder what they know about that as it's not covered in the CPR.

[thegreatgeraldo] 29/5/2018 11:19

Cash - what distance are you talking about this well covering - to test phase 2 east & west? The app well is surely just to test phase 2 east? Not sure how they're going to do it for $13 mill though.

[cashandcard] 29/5/2018 11:15

Caters,


Good post. Block 13/23c hosts Liberator West, broken down into 1) Phase 2 East and 2) Phase 2 West. Phase 2 East is the geological extension of Liberator immediately to the NW, with no break in the reservoir from Liberator discovery all the way to the 'saddle' they describe, hence the confidence in concluding its all but discovered. The uncertainty is with the larger Phase 2 West, for the reasons you mentioned above.

I was under the impression the firm well was to test the entire structure; this would mean testing phase 2 West, not phase 2 East (which is considered contingent resources). This is from the RNS;

"To assess the potential of the entire Liberator structure, the Company plans to drill an appraisal well into a relatively low-risk area of the Liberator West structure in late 2018, subject to funding. In the event of success, this appraisal will not only enable reserves to be developed through Liberator Phase I, but will also form the basis for a second phase of development of the Greater Liberator Area"

Might be wrong and happy to be corrected.


Cash

[caters] 29/5/2018 10:48

Hi Euclid,

70% gCOS is for Liberator West (aka Phase 2 East in the CPR).

There is a saddle in the geology that separates Phase 2 East from Phase 2 West.

For Phase 2 West, the gCOS is 51%.

I think landing the licence (and thereby Liberator West) is why NC & GH were beaming from ear-to-ear!

[euclid5] 29/5/2018 10:44

Thanks for the post Caters

70% CoS is very high for an exploration well - as good as an appraisal well IMO

[caters] 29/5/2018 10:40

Morning all,

I've been re-reading the Nov2017 CPR issued last week by I3E.

It seems to me that Liberator West (aka Phase 2 East) is pretty much taken as discovered and now it's a question of how much is there. That's the appraisal well planned for Q4/18 hopefully. It has a 70% gCOS per AGR, but I get the impression that the BoD are pretty confident about this. As GH said, getting the licence unblocks funding. The appraisal well will be drilled as a producer, so we can expect it to be located in accordance with the revised FDP.

I reckon that the co-funder will only want a slice of this pie and will only be offered a slice of this pie by I3E.

The prospective resources in Phase 2 West are much larger but there is ambiguity about the similarity of the sands, potential gas caps, aquifer drive, etc. It's not helped by a well drilled to the north that was a duster and one drilled to the south-east that had no sands as it was beyond the pinch-out. This area has been given a gCoS of 51%. If oil is found, then the area is large enough to possibly have a stand-alone development.

My guess is that:

(A) the BoD have a deal to (i) *appraise* Liberator West and (ii) develop Liberator and Liberator West.

(B) will either use cash from production or from a placing or from a farmout to then *explore* Phase 2 West. From a get-on-with-it point of view, I can see a farmout being the best route here, but it won't necessarily be with the JV partner for the production of Liberator and Liberator West.

I had thought that the BoD may sell on without having explored Phase 2 West, but the potential value here is too large to just hand away for $1/bbl or whatever. It needs to be explored and Neill Carson won't be able to let it go without having first explored it imho.

This company is still so cheap at 96.5p !!!

[scotty666] 29/5/2018 10:00

I have a buy order at 90p and a sell order at 300p :) Relaxed to hold what I have and wait plus happy to add more at 90p if the opportunity arises before funding news.
Funding news wont be far off imo.

[coscos] 29/5/2018 09:28

Believe me, the MM's will swing these up unexpectedly from here, just make sure you've got the holding you want.

[ducati2345] 29/5/2018 09:22

I fear that is exactly what will happen, a delay a drop or no rises in between then rns stating funding is in place , it's a lottery as to when, I don't think they will hang around too long though they need to get moving due to current high oil price.

[5chipper] 29/5/2018 09:17

Up 4 x since 20ps and that includes a large dilution! Hardly stubborn

[begorrah88] 29/5/2018 09:15

I don't think any news did get out,just expectation.

Remember the share price was over 80p at the end of March

Just had a shiver run down my spine at the thought of silence from the board for weeks then an RNS saying 'delighted to announce funding negotiations now extremely,extremely advanced and look forward to updating on progress in due course'

I'm hoping 'The Market' will recognise the value of I3e and see the picture as clearly as we all think it is when the funding is announced because it has been very stubborn to do so so far.

[cashandcard] 29/5/2018 09:13

Funding will bring a stop to this volatility, until then there maybe buying ops. It will come.



Cash