Hvivo Share Discussion Threads

[tonyw99] 08/10/2018 13:30

Fair point. I had Nicholls confused for Philips however.......
How do you know it was Philips that vested on Aug 10. There is no notification of that, just it was employee options. If he had vested, it would have to be declared. Given they were only awarded in 2017 it's unlikely (but possible) that they would vest immediately (and why wouldn't he convert them all?).

Far more likely that Yeatman exercised his 664,600 and the balance from other employees (ex directors)

[bernymadoff] 08/10/2018 13:29

And CFO Graham Yeatman was also awarded 100k options at 5p in August but he already had 644,600 vesting at 8.15p. As a director if he is selling then it will have to be announced to the market. You really are a piece of work aren't you? Every single one of your HVO posts is not only negative but also factually inaccurate. Are you trying to put people off investing here? If so you're going to have to try a lot harder

[bernymadoff] 08/10/2018 13:10

Wrong Tony. Trevor Philips exercised 779,600 options on 10 August, the same day that he purchased some shares on the open market. If you look in the 2017 annual accounts you will see that he has 850,000 options vesting at 5p. Would be a bit odd for him not to exercise these and choose instead to buy shares at 65p on the open market!

[tonyw99] 08/10/2018 12:48

Logical view - except for the fact that none of the existing or directors are holding vested options therefore there won't be any disclosures or anything to cash in. Nicholls is the only one holding and he won't be cashing those in at 101p. Denny would have had to purchase hers within a specific timeframe following termination. No doubt the CFO will have to do the same. As ex-employees / directors they will not require any notification either other than to admit the shares to the market

[bernymadoff] 08/10/2018 12:09

So a logical corollary of my view is that the directors are much further on in the commercialisation of Flu-V than they have disclosed to the market. They clearly see an interest in being in now rather than later. Contrarians may counter that maybe they want to sell their stock into the market, but as I have said before they'd have to disclose their sells and since we haven't had any disclosures to date I think we can safely discount that possibility.

[bernymadoff] 08/10/2018 11:40

Hi James. You are right in that they can exercise their options up to a stated date but the danger with leaving it late is that they may get frozen out by developments. By way of example HVO may decide on the basis of a sale of Flu-V to pay a special dividend to shareholders. If the management aren't holding shares at this point they risk being frozen out of any dividend because they may be subject to insider trading rules. Similarly if HVO suddenly agree a HoT or MoU with a pharma major, the same rules may prohibit directors from taking up their options. That's my take on it anyway. Besides it's just too much of a coincidence that they've all decided to take up all their options at the same time after the successful trials of Flu-V.

[discojames] 08/10/2018 09:49

In regards to the options, Berny, unless they are expiring, can the directors not just wait as long as they want to exercise them? I would have thought exercising them early was only ever because they wanted to sell: if they wanted to hold then they just wouldn't bother exercising, would they?

[bernymadoff] 08/10/2018 09:42

£21m in new contracts and many more big ones in the immediate pipeline to underpin valuation of core business. No doubt the company's and Imutex's contacts with the major pharmaceuticals will have been tapped to advance the commercialisation of Flu-V. Sp being kept in a very tight range here suggestive of MMs pressurising PIs to 'boredom sell' to the bigger holders. The directors' recent exercise of options ties in neatly with the announcement of new contracts but I have no doubt they are all waiting for the big payday when Flu-V gets sold/licensed. Seen it all too often before. Pis get bored into selling as a result of share price inertia and then one day out of the blue it's BOOM! Easy hold here for multibags if you're prepared to be patient.

[discojames] 08/10/2018 08:28

Nice to have £20m of new contracts confirmed when the MCap is only £45m

[qs99] 08/10/2018 08:03

quiet board considering

[qs99] 08/10/2018 07:07

nice Monday morning RNS

[bernymadoff] 05/10/2018 10:19

Is it still posting?

[a1samu] 05/10/2018 08:26

Institutions are falling for their misleading statements, especially the RNS released in June 2018, advising immediate news and after four months still nothing. In any case institutions can park their bad investments and eventually even writing it off against other successes. This is smoke and mirrors, because there is no value creation by this company. If there was value creation, the market would have sniffed it out and rewarded the share-price!

[tonyw99] 28/9/2018 19:32

They've been bought in for years. Why is Woodford increasing why they hold? What aren't they averaging down given a stack of their portfolio was bought at >150p.
No directors buying - although they are permanently on a close period due to their reporting.

I don't know the answers....just more questions

[bernymadoff] 28/9/2018 18:44

Both Invesco and IP already have a substantial holding. How many more AIM companies do you know with such a low number of shares in issue and with such a high level of institutional investment?

[macangts] 28/9/2018 17:03

Woodford needs to take the higher risk at the moment!

[tonyw99] 28/9/2018 16:27

My guess is that he'll buy another 500k from Denny. Why aren't IP and Investec investing?

[bernymadoff] 28/9/2018 11:11

RNS out. Woodford over 29%. Let's see how close he gets to 30%. My guess is that he'll take another 500-750k. Free float getting tighter and tighter and you have to ask why Woody would be more than doubling his holding after the Flu-V trial success.

[bernymadoff] 26/9/2018 10:24

Anyway Tony the important thing here is that the directors aren't selling because if they were they would have to declare their transactions. Personally I don't think Kym Denny is selling either as I think she would be mad to do so now when she didn't at 200p and when she knows that the monetisation of Flu-V could see an share price that is probably closer to 500p.

[tonyw99] 26/9/2018 09:36

Of course they aren't going to return the sale of the options to shareholders. That's their "profit" to which they are rightly / wrongly entitled depending on your view. That said, they could have exercised at any time but will have been advised not too. I'd have exercised too if I'd left the company.

I was talking about the company returning the money it receives from selling Flu-V and the effect on sp

[bernymadoff] 26/9/2018 09:04

I think you grossly underestimate the price that major pharma will be prepared to pay for a compound that has flown through P2 and is the only universal flu vaccine candidate to have demonstrated reduction in infection and flu symptoms in the real world. I was watching a BBC2 documentary last night (The flu that killed 50million) which I suggest everyone here watches on iplayer. The World Health Organisation and Global Health Council consider it possibly the single biggest health threat to humankind. That is why the production of a universal flu vaccine is being prioritised (eg The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has spent $12m on a new initiative aimed at developing a universal flu vaccine).

So any sale or licensing of Flu-v is likely to be in the region of many hundreds of millions of dollars. A universal flu vaccine really is the "holy grail" of vaccinations.

That kind of money is sufficient enough to grow by many multiples HVO's core business and there should be plenty enough left to return to shareholders.

Btw it's not often that I hold stocks long term on AIM but having done my research this is one that is going to be held until we see Flu-V commercialised. I anticipate we will be drip fed news on how it is progressing over the coming weeks and months.

[tonyw99] 26/9/2018 08:51

I'm not saying either way but it doesn't matter when the options are exercised. They can be exercised (and then held) at any point for 8p and sold whenever she wants / needs cash. They wouldn't have "been allowed / advised" to cash them in at 160p - 210p because of the message it would give to the market - we're cashing out because we don't see any more upside.

They could well be lining up a big payday however.....I'm not sure why the share price would spike on the back of it.

If they sell as expected then they'll need the cash to run the service business.
So unless they are going to return it to shareholders, that could be the only big gain.

At which point, max capacity on revenue is c. £40m and a 10% return on ebitda would give off £4m. It wouldn't warrant a share price of more then £1 on 20 times PE

[a1samu] 26/9/2018 08:15

This share will see -15p before it sees a "very big payday" for there is no news pending, after the market misleading RNS issued on 18 June 2018, when it was written "Further results will be release very shortly".

[bernymadoff] 26/9/2018 07:39

Just checked that and you're right the 1.3m options were awarded to the ex-CEO Lyn Denny. Those accounts also show that the options were available from December 2016 so Denny could have exercised them any time from then. Don't you think it's a bit strange that she didn't exercise any of them while for the period Dec 2016 to Jan 2017 the share price was ranging between 160p and 210p?
And is it just a coincidence that she has decided to exercise her options at the same time as the other directors? Is it also a coincidence that all the directors have exercised their options after the P2 Flu-v trial returned such astounding results?
Not a chance mate. This lot are all lining themselves up for a very big payday.