Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[wbodger] 25/4/2023 13:13

My mistake. Should have noticed the time.

[scaleyman] 25/4/2023 13:10

Good question kooba, only occurred to me after i hung up!! My bad.
Someone at the number I posted yesterday has SH details??
Wbodger, out of interest did they call a landline or moby? My call was to landline.

[kooba] 25/4/2023 12:55

How did they get your contacts? Do you not hold shares in nominees or wrapper where your id would be unavailable to registrar? Or do the company hold your details inc telephone number on file. Cant see how telephone canvassers getting details.

[jacquibic] 25/4/2023 12:52

Not aimed at you WB sorry did not put intended target label on

[jacquibic] 25/4/2023 12:47

Prax offer..return 6+p of share holder money to shareholders Prax to stump up £16.5m (initial payment to buy Hurricanes bag of goodies) if well 6 keeps pumping and Prax can utilize tax credits plus bring on line other income producing assets a poss 6.5p could be paid out before end of 2026 (tax position unclear at present on this promised monies). Wonder what the losing nearest bid looked like?

[wbodger] 25/4/2023 12:42

I didn't mean to sound so self important. Just trying to steer the debate away from personal attacks. The Boards are about opinion.

[jacquibic] 25/4/2023 12:23

You definitely do have an opinion and it’s entrenched from your own importance how dare anyone question your ability to sway opinion in such times as these sorry but you are dangerous

[wbodger] 25/4/2023 12:23

Can I try to discourage a tit-for-tat about motives and try a different approach. (I just had the obligatory call to find out which way I'm voting, which was short and sweet. I hope for no more of them.)

The way forward is the one available all along: Prax need to withdraw their Offer and deal with CA for their 29%. They should have done what we all did: buy shares at market price. Crystal Amber's 29% would naturally cost more than prevailing market price, but by the end of 2023 it would have given Prax substantial control of a company with free cash of perhaps £100 million. If that was distributed the rest of the company would have been valued on a conservative assessment of how much economic value was left in Lancaster. Currently it looks something like £50 million but the Stock Market is always pessimistic so perhaps less. At some point their £20 million sweetener will look attractive on a company valued at £50 million. Until then they would have received their 29% of gross cash distribution (perhaps £14.5 million) and at some point would offer to buy out the remainder of Hurricane (essentially Lancaster plus tax write-offs) fully at their own risk. If they didn't want the risk, they would lose the tax write-offs. If you fancy the rewards you take the risk. Simples.

Oh, I told the canvasser I will vote No. Which may or may not be true.

[kooba] 25/4/2023 11:45

I'll pop you on ignore..its for opinions on the stock not me. You have no opinions on the stock.

[kooba] 25/4/2023 11:42

As to cost pressures..thereshttps://www.upstreamonline.com/production/wave-of-uk-strikes-reaches-north-sea-energy-operations/2-1-1439625Then quite clearly with the high level of fixed operating costs that are rising and the level of production that is falling the attributed cash cost per barrel is going to rise sharply.Once again i think rubbishing the company forecast to slot in what suits you is not an argument..your assumptions are mostly wishful thinking.Probably end it here thanks.

[jacquibic] 25/4/2023 11:41

I have accused you of conformation bias before!

[kooba] 25/4/2023 11:35

I'm not reading it all but instead of googling stuff read the announcements..note 3o Cash production costs (excluding 8% incentive tariff): $38.6/bblo Quarter-end net free cash, as at 31 March 2023(1) : $132 million -- 2023 Expected cash production costs(2) o 2023 Expected cash production costs (excluding 8% incentive tariff)(3) : $45.5 - 54.7/bbl1. Unrestricted cash and cash equivalents, plus current financial trade and other receivables, current oil price derivatives, less current financial trade and other payables.2. The "Expected cash production costs" is based on previously announced estimates for operating costs and production guidance.3. Cash production costs relate to operating costs only and excludes other costs such as G&A. The cash production costs shown above also exclude the 8% incentive revenue tariff, payable to the FPSO owner. The 2023 forecast, shown as a range in US Dollars per barrel, is dependent on the number of barrels produced in the year and reflects the 2023 production guidance range as announced on 11 January 2023.

[senseman] 25/4/2023 11:11

koob
googled OPEX and it already includes all the ancilliaries you add on
also - how HUR defines OPEX will be consistent - so however they define OPEX it rose only $4.9 pb over 9.5 months, but they now say it will rise by ++$11.4 pb over next 8.5 months (likely more as HUR cite $50 average for ALL 2023)
as i said, it's a fairy tale
they recited on 18 april 2023 total costs $110-$120, and stated $10 mill pm rounding.
do the figures @ $80 4 offloads by end dec, deduct the 8%, then deduct $90 mill, then add to current $132 mill. for accuracy deduct $3.5 mill FSP cost, then HUR declared $5 mill EPL cost (less if some 2023 proportion already accounted for). divide end figure by 2 bill shares.
then do same for 4 offloads 2024
you'll be surprised - and all at $80
there is gross disparity between what HUR's own figures @ $80 prove, and the figures they used for their P6 standalone figures. it's as plain as a pikestaff
re the we must rely on their figures aspect - why? err, no we must and should not. it's like relying on a policeman who has told lies in the dock multiple times before, to tell the truth next time round. or trusting a wife who has played away from home numerous times not to do so again

[jacquibic] 25/4/2023 11:07

Morning Kooba if you use the data supplied by Hurricane I would say there is a high probability your conclusion will be inline also!
Going off previous history (track record) just so you are not totally guessing! the data supplied by the company in the past has been proven to not be vary accurate or at best choice

[philwalker36] 25/4/2023 10:55

The rns yesterday finally convinced me to vote no to everything.May or may not make a difference 4M+ holding. But felt right.

[kooba] 25/4/2023 10:34

The simple truth is yes i am using the company figures i have no independent way of coming up with my own ..i would be just totally guessing without detailed access to non public information.Just saying the company produced , advisor cleared forecasts are nonsense and you don't agree them is not really an argument..the company can't go although the massive futures market is demonstrating a fall off in the price of oil over the next 2 years we are going to say no...we think it will go up by $20 because it suits a more bullish argument..future curve is used by industry to make investment decisions and can't be ignored.The cash cost is the cost directly against the production.The difference between that and the $10m a month is the administration and general costs it does not include..central office cost staff advisor fees etc etc etc are all fixed costs.Repeat happy with my numbers and that the 17.5% gross does represent 50% of clear profits in my opinion and likely will be even greater % of the future production clear profits to economic exhaustion..i imagine that exhaustion point is determined by Prax if this goes through.

[kooba] 25/4/2023 10:10

No i think if the scheme is approved on the 4th it is binding on all shareholders and the board..the final approval needs NSTA approval and a final court clearance but i can't see a basis for anyone to try to come in after that date if it gets shareholder approval.

[senseman] 25/4/2023 10:07

kooba
not wishing another handbags, and will post more fully if time allows.
but at 18 April GM CFO stated HUR's P6 standalone figures were based on $76 Brent forward curve
also P6 standalone cost figures were based (for 2023) on 2023 mid-range average $50
it's a fairy tale
wrongly using the forward curve led to the 2021 debacle, the forward curve is NOY meant to be a price predictor
in 9.5 months till april 2023 OPEX p.b rose only from $33.7 to $38.6. so OPEX p.b AVERAGE in 8.5 months from 18 april to end dec 2023 will jump ++$11.4 from $38.6 april 2023 to $50 AVERAGE for ALL 2023?
err....no they won't. the 2023 average will be max $45, unless production decreasing linearly suddenly falls off a cliff
HUR's P6 standalone P6 figures are deliberately mickey mouse by minimally $10 a barrel, and likely, it was done specifically to argue Prax deal would give more
i even worked it out for end 2023 P6 cash figures using Brent $80 & HUR's $10mill a month cost figure (by the way - there $10 mill a month cost does not equate to 2023 $50 pb OPEX, and costs (barring inflation) are static
i will copy my LSE posts here if time allows. but with absolute certainty, HUR'sP6 standalone figures area re-run of the 2021 tactic you abhorred

[evilblues] 25/4/2023 09:41

Kooba do you think the 11th hour could happen after May 4th?

[kooba] 25/4/2023 09:33

I’m not sure you get it at all..you are confusing your net and gross even after i have explained it..we are getting over 50% of the net by getting 17.5% of the gross..if you want 30% of the net..you are asking for less money..i don’t think that is going the right way!! happy with my numbers so will leave at that.
The fact is they are not going to change the deal however much you stamp your feet..i don’t think they need to…nor do they it seems.
Only hope is an 11th hour firm offer from 3rd party that board can support..or this is voted down and we are back to square one same management with long wind down.

[marmar80] 25/4/2023 08:43

This way we could gain almost twice from P6 well. This deal should not be constructed this way to give them p6 and money to maintain it so it is a risk free investment. Prax will get sweet 300m in tax losses and if they use them, and they will do for sure, they will save a lot of money instantly. We all also forgetting how much money has Hurricane spent on developing the field, on drilling, testing area around. All of this comes as a top up to Prax for how much really? 0.83p cash consideration :)