Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[wbodger] 06/4/2023 13:33

IIRC Malcy initially just restated the pro-deal RNS that was put out by the Board when they announced it.

As to the whimper, it will be very hard to overcome 45% in favour before any other instis are even counted. That's reality and nothing to do with sentiment. Many instis will take CA's lead.

I have decided to accept it and keep my fingers crossed we end up with most of the 12.5 pence. It will help the cash dividend if the April lifting comes in when PoO is over $80.

Anyone see any sign of a tanker?

[marmar80] 06/4/2023 13:25

Yeap, he did. Perhaps he has sold and now would like the price to drop under 7 to buy back. What I have noticed this week, actually tested it twice with a small amount, it is easy to sell just above Bid but hard to buy back at the Bid level. Some funds are accumulating for sure and hoping we will sell them all cheap. I can sell all but above 8.50 with a loss. No way I'm selling all now.

[agnabeya] 06/4/2023 13:15

Malcy says-“Hurricane going out with a whimper” and “What a waste”

I thought he liked the deal?

[kooba] 06/4/2023 09:45

I think overall and looking back on the last couple of years i have followed the performance of well 6 it has been very good..i remember batting off the bashers saying it would be watered out or uneconomic ages ago. As it goes it chugs on , not without risks but so far the performance and up time has actually been remarkable considering where the FPSO is stationed. There has been no real surprises though in the rate of decline, though consistently better than worse estimates..so far , fingers crossed that continues whatever the outcome of the current proposal.

[marmar80] 06/4/2023 09:35

Ah yeah, I looked into that table only. Now see the small decline contunues.

[kooba] 06/4/2023 09:18

As of 9 January 2023, Lancaster was producing c.7,800 bopd from the P6 well alone with an associated water cut of c.51%.As of 2 April 2023, Lancaster was producing c.7,530 bopd from the P6 well alone with an associated water cut of c.53%.Seems to be pretty much as expected i think production declining water cut increasing within expectation though being at 7530 end of 1st quarter probably extrapolates to production being toward the higher end of expectation i guess.

[marmar80] 06/4/2023 08:58

Ophorst a little more again

[marmar80] 06/4/2023 08:16

Water cut has stabilised at 52%?

[marmar80] 05/4/2023 10:08

Ophorst added again

[rahosi] 05/4/2023 08:19

Can a PI make representations to the court? If so how?

[kooba] 03/4/2023 15:48

Well i cant see any leverage to go back and try and renegotiate on the back of an oil price rebound ( i guess the terms were set when oil was $80) same applies i guess if the oil price had fallen below $70.It only gets interesting now if someone who was in the FSP or has been watching afar tables something firm and unconditional to the board and shareholders.It is difficult to see how members of the board who have signed irrevocables can switch to recommend a more attractive alternative as individuals but maybe can as a corporate entity ..as the board. That certainly is the take from doc's. If there was to be a superior offer made we also maybe see if there are any escape routes for the 45%. I don't however see the oil price rising as a basis change event on its own.

[marmar80] 03/4/2023 15:01

So even if oil goes to 100 tomorrow, there is no chance to amend the payout to shareholders?

[telbap] 03/4/2023 14:55

@kooba......thanks :)

[kooba] 03/4/2023 09:55

There is no dividend announced. If the scheme goes through there should be the 2 dividends and cash payment all totalling 6.02p early June. Then you have the DCU's which should pay royalty payments every 6 months. If the scheme fails then the company has said in a going it alone scenario they would pay out 3.32p dividend shortly after scheme is defeated again likely early June and then make another payment next year.But nothing is on a formal timetable until the shareholder vote and scheme goes to court.We should be getting the notice of GM for shareholders to approve the scheme next week i guess with that vote being at the end of April. There could be more detail then?

[telbap] 03/4/2023 08:28

Any sign of the promised divi yet?

[kooba] 03/4/2023 07:52

Well its positive for oil price up 6% ..a surprising move outside of an OPEC + meeting so has caught the markets on the hop. Certainly indicates they are not prepared to take no action with the oil price touching $70 recently so sends a strong signal to the market and should support these higher levels ..brent slightly off highs at $84..which is now slightly higher than the modelling down buy Hurricane at $80.
Could be a positive factor with the April offload as should lead to a first 5 days in the 80’s for pricing..then needs to hold into te end of the month.
Its a positive to a stand alone outcome or DCU outcome both benefit from higher offload revenues if the oil price holds up , so this move is a positive..might also be a nudge if anyone unknown is lurking in the background.
A positive but probably not a game-changer unless oil moves sharply higher again.

[marmar80] 03/4/2023 07:31

Any impact on Hurricane?

[kooba] 02/4/2023 15:37

OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut that will exceed 1 million barrels a day, curtailing supply from May despite a recovery in prices from 15-month lows. 

[marmar80] 31/3/2023 14:41

Funny. Oil prices recovering fast and Hur proce weaker.

[senseman] 31/3/2023 14:02

RE: Cont'd Today 13:08 - Senseman LSE

My subconscious whilst aslumber tried to fit the jigsaw pieces and gauge if my 01.11am post was too unnuanced. It was. With caveat I may be wholly wrong this is my best quesstimate of how things evolved, and current status:-
1. CA's EGM request & Albion plan genuine. RB bats straight. And Albion wouldn't be party to tactical misuse. It evidenced time & effort input by RB. In short, RB worked his side of the fence whilst HUR & Stifel worked theirs. CA was not prepared to rely on HUR finding a suitable deal. CA will have communicated to HUR that any deal, if not whole cash, must be part-cash returnable to SHs + beneficial interest in future. As well as Albion deal, RB will have worked phones with other companies to see if any would provide the ideal - a 'farm-in'. Always biggest deterrent - HUR chief execs - mistrust of which by now industry-wide.
2. HUR execs & Stifel, facing EGM removal, actually work to deadline to achieve deal meeting CA basic requirements in some albeit convoluted form, & achieve such (amazing what can be achieved when needed, eh?). I remain sceptical of HUR & Stifel inputting same effort into other party deals which did not ensure senior execs & Stifel remaining in-situ.
3. CA board meet to consider. A decision must be made. Brent -$80, share price 6.8p?, banking squall imminent. Such magnitude decision is not RB's to make - it's board time. CA Chair & board fear Brent crash to -$70, share price to -6p, lengthy bank unrest, CA share price dip. Irrespective of RB view, Chair & board view is CA risk/reward dictates deal acceptance. RB may or may not hold similar view. But even if RB holds different view, will be outvoted. CA board votes yes to deal. I have avoided criticizing RB personally always believing was CA board decision, not RB personal decision. Hence my always writing CA this, CA that, rather than RB this or that.
4. I would be surprised if RB was not still working phones to find a 'farmee' or 'better deal' which, though CA & Ker have signed Irrevocables, HUR BoD would be obliged to consider. HUR itself can walk away from Prax deal. Which leads nicely to 2 further clarification points:-

5. I rarely consider things over till the fat lady sings, and don't now. With 1 month till AGM, 2 things have happened:-
(i) HUR is now in 'auction territory'. I've read enough since 2021 re oil deals to know a month is a long time. Other companies now know the deal they need beat. Clarity focuses others' minds. It would not surprise me to see another bidder surface. NB. this is not saying I EXPECT such.
(ii) PIs' outcry will have provided CA (& thus HUR) honest ammunition to put before Prax & say deal needs be improved otherwise AGM 75% may be at risk; alternatively 90% wont be achieved thus Prax may have a rump of PIs electing to remain noisy disgruntled SHs in new private HUR.
6. I would be astonished if RB had ceased working to achieve farm-in or better deal.

Will post final thought when time allows.

ReplyRecommend (3)

[marmar80] 31/3/2023 13:41

Jersey Oil and Gas, beautiful today, North Sea deal secured. We could be same, but need another team

[rahosi] 31/3/2023 10:44

Any gas or oil transport infrastructure expenditure would have to have accelerated write-down due to the perceived future for hydrocarbons. That makes such investment more difficult.

[steve73] 31/3/2023 07:23

UK gas (or oil) transported via fixed infrastructure is surely by default "sold to the UK".

Oil exported via shuttle tankers can go anywhere (as IIRC some of the early HUR cargoes did).

But there's not much gas that's directly exported via ships.. apart from some massive offshore developments in (or off) Australia where there are no local consumers, and I can't see similar projects getting developed in the UK sectors where there is a substantial local market.

[marmar80] 30/3/2023 22:04

hTtps://www.irishnews.com/news/uknews/2023/03/30/news/government_refuses_to_commit_to_blocking_rosebank_oil_and_gas_field-3176158/Critics of the Rosebank development have said that Equinor, a Norwegian oil giant, is under no obligation to sell its oil and gas to the UK and will do so to the highest bidder.Because of allowances in the windfall tax which mean fossil fuel companies can offset their tax contributions if they invest in new oil and gas projects, Equinor would pay only 10% of the development costs.Government support would amount to £3.75 billion if Rosebank is approved, while Equinor would pay only £350 million.

[marmar80] 30/3/2023 13:56

Agnabeya,Believe me or not but that antifungal company that I bought has been offered $90m plus royalty today by Glaxo :) what a luck there.