Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[kooba] 14/4/2023 12:45

I think the company are committed to pay the 3.32p out if scheme fails..maybe can only get out of that short term if there is alternative M&A proposed.

[wbodger] 14/4/2023 12:37

Do you think the Board would make the cash distribution if the bid fails, kooba? That doesn't seem in character!

I think if the bid fails and Prax remain interested they would acquire CA's 28.9% for pretty much what they offered all of us. Other acceptances would be null after failure of the Scheme, so no need to divest to under 30%. With 28.9% Prax block any other Maris initiatives and maybe make a deal with BP for their contract of first refusal on the HUR oil. All the Board could do is farm down Lancaster and maybe make cash distributions until Prax think the rump of HUR can be had for a couple of pps. HUR would be much cheaper with Lancaster nearer to uneconomical, but of course in the meantime Prax's refinery has had to pay spot price for oil that would be cheaper to Prax had they succeeded with this bid. That's why they want it now, with PoO projected to rise.

It might not be Prax's best offer but that's a judgment call. It's everyone's call to make. IMO there is no competition because why would anyone else want the hassle? But Prax does have reasons: the tax write-offs and buying input to their refinery at Lancaster cost of production.

[marmar80] 14/4/2023 12:24

Agree. Hur needs a brand new management or at least the key person if we vote No to that Prax deal.

[marmar80] 14/4/2023 11:39

Ophorst added again

[kooba] 14/4/2023 11:26

All about right though not sure they would tank , but would be a bit lower i think , as the company would be announcing a 3.32p dividend immediately after an unsuccessful scheme meeting , then the shares would adjust for that ex and trade on future cashflow/distribution expectation..so likely net down on where they are now until later in the year depending on continued production.If the well continues to higher end of current estimates and the oil price moves and holds above $80 there is obviously some upside in the company forecasts of total cash distribution that could be available.Whether CRS /kerogen suffer the current management to deliver that wind down is an unknown , as is whether there is any plan b to resurrect the company ambition under a new management.Maybe try to replicate the PRAX model using the tax loses to build some production assets..but it needs new blood to get any confidence in that approach. If they could get that kind of model going it could still provide a dividend paying tax efficient model building longer term value.But you are right best bet for those against this deal is someone coming in and spoiling the party.

[senseman] 14/4/2023 11:11

Absolutely fair question
I guess it may tank short term but protected by cash held and oil price if Brent is looking buoyant going forward. And dependent on what CA decide re current or new BoD.
The problem is that we are always between a rock and a hard place - courtesy of an inadequate BoD. Unreliable contrasting CPRs, Covid, surviving plainly wrong 95% theft attempt. Then as soon as bonds paid & $60 mill cash, CA's winding up EPL & P8 disappearing hits us. Better senior execs would have navigated all this much better - managing to pee off CA, NTSB & 21% PIs is no small feat. And led directly to this between rock and hard place 'Scheme' deal.
We need and deserve a good luck break - one much overdue. As kooba says, best would be another interest party. But will be so lucky?

[kooba] 14/4/2023 10:25

The question was asked..nay demanded whether i think PRAX might walk..well i think it is quite possible. If the scheme is not approved its all back to square one and i guess the offer process all has to go through the hurdles again if they wish to make any improved offer by a scheme of arrangement. So yes they could come back with something slightly higher but i believe it would be marginal ( yes a personal view not an agenda !) so if they think that shareholders are not realistic in their expectation i doubt they will bother. Also getting a revised scheme approved will take another few months and move well in summer so any payments resulting could be deferred to early September at a guess its not the same as just increasing a contractual offer as far as i am aware. PRAX did reserve the right to move this to a contractual bid ie a normal takeover offer but as pointed out before that means they could end up with an dissenting minority if over 10%..something they cannot have as would be unable to utilise the tax losses.So all in all i think it quite possible they walk if they believe shareholders will not support in sufficient numbers to get a scheme through and the attractions here are not a strong as many seem to believe in my view.So that is an independent opinion ..it is not having an agenda..just because someone looks at things in a different way and is rather well informed does not mean they have an agenda. The main chance of anything better rests imo with someone else coming in at the 11th hour..again any offer could be marginally better ( otherwise it wouldn't be tabled) but that could make things more interesting.Moving back to my perfectly valid question what would the shares do if the scheme is voted down and PRAX walk?

[senseman] 14/4/2023 10:13

senseman LSE
EMAIL LIST OF SHAREHOLDER QUESTIONS - HUR GENERAL MEETING PRESENTATION
10am deadline - Total 32 emails sent
Gentlemen, well done.
On usual basis that a few emailed but not posted, I expect circa 35 have been sent
Thanks to Mariog for cc to Kerogen. We missed a trick there - all should have been cc'd to Ker. My error in not including Ker email address. My apology.
Had we the weekend, would have seen usual 50+sent. But time-short, 30 is a decent, sufficient bloc.
I would encourage anyone missing the 10am deadline who wishes to email, to still do so. A few more post-deadline reinforces better numbers for HUR to be aware of.
Again, gentlemen, well done.

[senseman] 14/4/2023 09:31

senseman
RE: EMAIL LIST OF SHAREHOLDER QUESTIONS - HUR GENERAL MEETING PRESENTATION
Current total = 29
30 mins left till 10am deadline
We need 1 more braveheart to reach 30 target

[marmar80] 13/4/2023 22:32

I am sure they have money to offer more than 0.82p per share from their own pocket.

[senseman] 13/4/2023 22:27

Having read all I can find re Prax (which isn't much), my bottom line view is that it might take them years to find a better upstream vehicle buy to suit their mid-long term purpose. HUR fits their bill perfectly - no debt, large cash, large tax credits, producing well with poss 3 yrs economic left, licences, huge area potential, positive oil price forecasts. Kooba rightly points out they may walk if 75% fails. But I just can't see it. Knowing they are in driving seat their current offer must be lowest constructed to persuade HUR BoD & CA to support. With no other party interested, were 75% to fail why would they walk away below 15p? And if another party joined the fun, what would it be worth to them? I again return to the time, effort & timespan it would take them to find another entry company ticking as many boxes as HUR

[jacquibic] 13/4/2023 21:41

You not answering that most basic question fuels my belief…..you have an agenda!
Goodnight Koobs

[kooba] 13/4/2023 21:36

You are not worthy ..goodnight.

[evilblues] 13/4/2023 21:32

Kooba don't do contrarian views.

[jacquibic] 13/4/2023 21:30

Yes let’s go for it….do you believe it’s their best and final?

[kooba] 13/4/2023 21:19

Really you want to go here??

[jacquibic] 13/4/2023 21:17

I don’t know if you realised but that was a direct question for YOU to answer “ do yo believe that is their best and final” YES or NO CITY BOY?
Ps no nickers in a twist just asking because I suspect you are at it again!

[kooba] 13/4/2023 21:14

The only thing that can make a difference now really is if someone else comes in..there has been every opportunity it seems for anyone interested to put in a better offer and it hasn't happened yet..but who knows?

[kooba] 13/4/2023 21:09

I just asked what people thought..folks ask me questions ..I normally answer and don't go into a tizzy fit. It's a simple question if you don't have an answer then just chill.

[jacquibic] 13/4/2023 20:59

I thought your background was in the city (do you seriously believe that’s their best and final) probability would be they up their offer….here we go again working on doomsday scenario you do follow a pattern( why you bothered voting wise this is a slam dunk?) or ????

[kooba] 13/4/2023 19:49

Busy bees! What do folks think the shares do if the scheme is rejected on day one and Prax walk? The go it alone option is 3.32p divi this year and run down to Aug 2025 if all goes well I guess...a fair wait for more money?

[marmar80] 13/4/2023 15:56

They want your shares!

[senseman] 13/4/2023 15:01

Thanks Agna - current score 12
Note - deadline is 10am tomorrow Friday
If send, please vary intro and signing off sentences, for form's sake
Remember - email question content is only what I sent - please amend as minded.

[agnabeya] 13/4/2023 14:11

37288- done and mailed

[senseman] 13/4/2023 13:28

senseman
LIST OF SHAREHOLDER QUESTIONS - HUR GENERAL MEETING PRESENTATION 18.04.23
To:
[e-mail]
[e-mail]
[e-mail]
[e-mail]

"Dear Mr Chairman

See questions resulting from PI discussion. Please ensure that as many as possible are PROPERLY addressed within the 18 April GM presentation. Thank you.

1. Will DCUs remain under ISA umbrella, if shares currently held there? Such is an issue of fact under UK tax law & should be clarified for PIs. Also, please explain the difference between Class 1 & Class 2 DCUs.
2. Why were not a RANGE of Brent sensitivity figures included in the cash production P6 standalone figures estimates? NB. Brent is today $87
3. Why have the CEO & CFO's 2022 AGM comments that P6 catastrophic failure risk was minimal now been consigned to history, and the risk now been mutated into being major?
4. On 27 March, Hurricane communicated to a SH that up to another $60m would be needed in wind down costs on top of $60m already escrowed, leading to only 0.83p expected dividends per share in 2024. Please explain the reasoning/cost breakdown for the new $120m wind down figure.
5. What is current OPEX April 2023. Also projected 2023 OPEX average?
6. Is there opportunity to develop the Lancaster sandstone reserves of 20m barrels of oil? If not, why?
7. Which party was the principal instigator of the Irrevocable Undertakings? Prax, HUR or CA?
8. Having restated in a recent RNS it has no confidence in the BoD, have CA made clear what action it will take if 25% vote NO? If so, what action?
9. Will the CEO, CFO & Chair resign if 75% YES is not achieved?
10. What are FSP expected total costs?
11. What confidence can SHs have in HUR's risk assessment & P6 standalone cash production figures when, one year after the 2021 failed High Court 95% restructuring attempt, at bond due date, it's risk assessment proved overstated, and cash projections understated by circa $150 million in a single year?
12. Prax - Why do you have confidence in and plan to retain, HUR's CEO & CFO, in light of Q11 above? Also, when HUR's relationship with the NSTA has failed?
13. In the last 2 ERCE reports, the 2P level of oil in P6 effectively increased by around 3m barrels (ie: it did not materially drop despite oil being extracted for the last year). Please explain the reasons, and by how long this extends P6's projected economically viable lifespan.
14. Prax - (i) why cannot HUR remain AIM listed until 2026? (ii) how soon will the first added production be brought into HUR?
15. Why is Court vote being held 15 mins before Scheme of Arrangement vote?
16. When P6 pump was previously changed over, natural flow almost matched pumped flow. What is natural flow rate expected to be should pump changeover be necessary again?
17. If YES vote is 75%, is the deal binding on ALL SHs?
18. Why is HUR confident the NSTA will agree the Scheme?
19. PIs (a 21% block) consider the Scheme horrifically unfair. Why does not Prax immediately improve it's offer to gain greater PI support?

Yours sincerely
etc
Shareholder"