Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[senseman] 24/3/2023 09:52

nothing naughty at all kooba, nothing illegal, nothing underhand, not from ca.
whatever our current differences you know by now i don't tell porkies
if i say i know - i know
if i only think - i say i think
the plan proposed with albion was genuine
apart from what i state, i suppose one could also look at it this way - if it was not kosher, it would mean that ca were brazenly lying to the market via rns. i really don't think they would take such risk, do you?

[kooba] 24/3/2023 09:30

How is that ..do you have inside information from CRS? Is the information on CRS plans you posted also based on direct communication with them..if it is then they could be in breach of take over code and their irrevocable undertaking? They could be engaged in hampering the scheme that they very publicly supporting..by encouraging you to post against the scheme. Who are you acting for??

[senseman] 24/3/2023 09:25

Koob - I quite agree of king of speculative assumptions
And there's another flying pig just passed my window
Have a nice day
By the way, I can tell you with absolute certainty that Albion was not a put up.

[kooba] 24/3/2023 09:04

Strikes me it is not the company that is desperate and panicking!Pre-guessing CRS next move when they are totally committed to this transaction is an unusual approach when you have no idea what their thoughts are apart from wanting this to go through.Knowing why CRS put Albion up and then withdrew the GM again is pure speculation.Maybe it was some clever game playing by CRS putting pressure on the board to deliver the exit strategy that they had publicly declared...job done.Maybe Albion who seemed to think they could just go drilling for more oil on Lancaster did their due diligence and spoke to the NSTA and realised that it wasn't for them.Either way presuming that bringing in Albion would create a new golden age for Hurricane ( actually they never had one in terms of finds!) and not just be a very high risk exploration strategy that would be hit or miss over a long timeframe without having any detail on their plans if there really were any is an amazing vote of confidence in the unknown.Maybe after years of disappointment many shareholders including the better informed 45% prefer a realistic exit strategy than just throwing the dice again and risking everything.The long list of other off beam points on the previous post is again all just desperate stuff and i haven't got time or inclination to bother debunking it all. The funniest is the end"NOMAD should not be broker ..illegal conflict of interest."Just bizarre in the majority of aim stocks the NOMADs are also company broker...it is a very normal position and there is no recognised conflict of interest..it is absolute not illegal and to suggest so is just more ignorance and lies.

[senseman] 23/3/2023 23:00

RE: Q & A - SENSEMAN THOUGHTS Today 22:58 LSE
Have been serious musing:-
CA RNS confirms CA still detest HUR chief execs.
The severity of the Irrevocables suggest a fragile deal of forced bedmates uncertain 75% will be achieved.
The speed and extent of a Q & A RNS suggests panic after overwhelming PI outcry at deal.
Which leads me more firmly back to the elephant in the room unaddressed by the Q & A and the question I raise re Q6, ie:
"Q6 What happens if this deal doesn’t get approved? Would you switch to another bidder’s offer,
or go straight into a capital return process?
Relevant missing part 3 of question - IF DEAL FAILS 75% - WILL CA REISSUE EGM REQUEST, REMOVE BoD, INSTALL ALBION AS EARLIER PLANNED?"

I firmly believe that if 75% fails, CA will, rather than leave BoD in place till well 6 economic limit, reissue EGM request, oust chief execs, and install Albion. The question is - will Albion still want in if it perceives it has been messed about. But I am fairly certain that this is what CA will want to do. Since Albion have thick skins, they would likely still play ball.
CA of course will never admit this whilst the deal is in play. But you can bet your life HUR BoD are scared stiff of 75% failing!
So I would build scenario 3 into your thoughts - if 75% fails - BoD out and Albion likely in (in my view).
Opinions?

[dil 21] 23/3/2023 21:26

Keep the change :-)

[dil 21] 23/3/2023 20:05

Oi senseless , I’ll give you 7.45p cash for yours.

Cheque for £15 on the way.

[senseman] 23/3/2023 17:39

senseman
Q & A - SENSEMAN THOUGHTS Today 16:56 LSE
Apology no time to opine save in note form.
Beware new false prophet joining discredited old false prophet in busy abacus posting blitz

Deal negative reaction FAR greater than expected by Prax, HUR, CA. Damage limitation 44 Q & A document rushed out - speed & length extraordinary.
Quality: toilet tissue on fundamentals: Qs & As cherry picked

SHRIEKING OUT
Q4 How much cash is Hurricane generating now?
Projected $80 Brent. Historic HUR fiction. Today Brent $77. Project $90 Brent (more accurate) - see figures rocket
Deliberate omission - Projections with Brent $85, $90, $95, $100
Q5 Won’t Hurricane have cash equivalent to 12.5p/share by the end of 2024? If so, why should
shareholders not just wait for that cash?
HUR standalone cash return figures - fiction
Q6 What happens if this deal doesn’t get approved? Would you switch to another bidder’s offer,
or go straight into a capital return process?
Relevant missing part 3 of question - IF DEAL FAILS 75% - WILL CA REISSUE EGM REQUEST, REMOVE BoD, INSTALL ALBION AS EARLIER PLANNED?
Q7 Will Prax come back with a higher offer?
Question unanswered. If Prax offer final, would state No. Truthful answer - YES
Q9 Why have the Board, Crystal Amber and Kerogen agreed to an irrevocable support for this
deal – what happens if a better offer is forthcoming?
True answer - Irrevocables signed anticipating vocal 21% PI backlash, attempt to present as nearly done deal
Q12 Why the deferred payments? Why not all the cash at once?
HUR BoD deliberate exagaration of Well 6 catastrophic failure
Q13 Is Prax not just buying Hurricane with its own money?
Question unanswered. Correct answer - YES
Q14 What about a dividend in the ordinary course? Why did management decide to push on with
finalising a deal before returning capital to shareholders?
True answer - if circa 3p had been returned as promised, even more PI's (and Inst Invests) against deal and 75% target made harder.
Q17 Was this the best offer in terms of immediate cash consideration?
Question irrelevant to PIs main value concern
Q18 How much money will management make from the deal? Will any of Management retain
their jobs and will their pay increase?
True answer - (i) A lot, espec seniors (ii) CEO & CFO will (iii) Likely
Q20 Is it a court-led process? Does it require 75 per cent support from voting shareholders?
Fuller answer - (i) If 75% not achieved, Prax higher offer or walk away (ii) If 75%-90%, those voting against cannot be forced to accept deal but can elect shares in private HUR (offerer's nightmare) (iii) 90% needed for compulsory purchase of those voting against. Is there a forum expert to expand upon this?
Q23 How common is this type of deal structure?
Rare. Usually when offerer getting target for below value
Q38 Will we have any voting rights in Prax activities?
Non-sellers between 75%-90% threshold - YES
Q44 Why are Stifel involved with all these share trades announced on the 8.5 RNSs?
NOMAD should not also be broker- illegal conflict of interest

[wbodger] 23/3/2023 16:11

#37144, kooba:
"A full cash offer reflecting 12.5p up front would have been nice..but no one would pay due to the risks of early cessation so this is the compromise."

Just so. Every takeover offer with paper asks shareholders to make their own assessment whether they're better off with the buyer or with the status quo. You're never going to get an all-cash offer, except from the likes of Big Oil, and it would only be a premium to the trading price when they sat down, so 14p was always blind optimism. (I see Sensemun has been plastering HBR board with his fantasy.)

More cash up front? Fair enough, but not many Boards are going to completely deplete the treasure chest when it might be needed to keep the oil flowing. It's not enough just hoping it will be replenished before Lancaster stops.

A guarantee of cash is therefore too much to ask but I will accept a compromise between cash of around the present share price plus DCU value to add another 2-5 pence. I will also need to know who's in charge ... but at least I won't be checking the trading price of HUR every day.

[agnabeya] 23/3/2023 13:53

Interesting- I thought they hadn’t found anything yet to mitigate that fungus.

My first buys of hurricane were around 50p- and I bought far too many then.
I really don’t want to spend more time watching shares-
nothing more valuable than time ;)

[marmar80] 23/3/2023 12:55

Well done. No extra money available here unfortunately. Dont want to bank more losses to get in here and wait 3 yrs. OT.Hopefully my recent bet on the small antifungal stock in the US will pay off soon (they have an outbreak in the hospitals and this is slowly getting some attention).

[agnabeya] 23/3/2023 12:46

Marmar- I averaged down to 10p when the share price was really low.

[marmar80] 23/3/2023 12:25

If can ask, what's your average here?

[agnabeya] 23/3/2023 12:09

Thanks Kooba. I was think that myself- that I’d need to get out around the delisting.
If it’s only 8p-so be it. GLA-whatever you choose to do.

[kooba] 23/3/2023 12:02

I see no reason why the offer will be changed I'm afraid in the absence of new interest..which i think unlikely. They already have boards backing they say its fair and reasonable and 45% of shareholders seem to agree. I can't see the leverage to force a higher offer ...if it is voted down i think the price now would fall and shareholders get 3.32p now and a long wait for much more.

[marmar80] 23/3/2023 11:35

It must be. Cant imagine taking it just like that without a plan ready to take off day after. Major issue for me is the price Prax is paying to unlock all the potential. Every 1p more would be a significant amount for myself, so I expected them to give us at least 3p not under 1.

[kooba] 23/3/2023 11:29

Didn't say it could be more, obviously 12.5p if firm cap. The other thing that could impact price is if PRAX announce advanced talks for production assets..they would not consummate a deal before the scheme goes through but if folks thought that a major asset was going in they might view the max payout as far more likely. I know nothing but wouldn't be surprised if there was a secondary larger deal in the background and this is preparing the ground.

[marmar80] 23/3/2023 11:06

I doubt it will be anything more as there ja a cap in place on this deal.

[kooba] 23/3/2023 10:55

Well i think the deal will likely complete and dividends paid early June if the scheme is approved or unless someone else comes along ( i think unlikely myself) so at around that point i think they also delist so you lose your shares and have the DCUs then. They say there will be a secondary market in the DCU's..details to follow. But if you don't want the DCUs then you obviously need to be out before delisting. One of the dividends is subject to the April offload i reckon around 26th -27th if this is completed with at least 450k offload...currently on track.So if that happens ok there might be a slight up tick then but i doubt folks will get 8p before delist..i may be wrong.I think on where they are now if deal does not go through the shares will fall back as there is more risk on cessation in the near term and more drawn out payments.

[marmar80] 23/3/2023 10:49

Selling now doesn't make financial sense for sure, expecially when we are in loss. Really don't like this deal and it is overcomplicated, maybe even unnecessary.

[dave999dave999] 23/3/2023 10:24

i don't like the deal but i have no choice....

lose 50-60% or lose 20%-30% of my investment if the outcomes are all positive

got me over a barrel...

part of me wants to make the wrong choice when i get the chance to vote, just to "stick it up em". because in my view the company has been badly run and they have mislead us deliberatly by omission.

i think a lot of PIs will be in a similar position and the ouctome of any vote could be dictated by anger and frustration rather than common sense.
provided there are enough angry and frustated PIs willing to vote the outcome could be the wrong one.

and we'll be happy for 5 minutes and then filled with regret


Dave

[agnabeya] 23/3/2023 10:21

Kooba- in the short term The next 6 months) with oil remaining at the present level- what best price can you see this achieving? I hold a self investing Isa- and don’t want to wait for DCUs and anything that will complicate my tax free ISA as it stands. I’ll do my own research etc- butI’d be interested in your opinion.

[kooba] 23/3/2023 10:15

No not really i think the value of the tax losses has been somewhat overstated and stifel before this process said in research that in reality they were worth 4p at most to a buyer.
So thats what we might end up getting ..all the cash out of well6 and hopefully about 4p on by sharing the benefits of other acquisitions being put into the company and taking advantage of the losses.
As said the process was exhaustive so i doubt any potential buyer who could have valued the tax losses higher was missed.
Look i get that folks would like more..I’ve never had a takeover where one can’t try to argue its not high enough..because they want to buy it , it must be worth more! But there has to be some value left on the table for the buyer otherwise why bother..its an expensive messy business corporate finance with lawyers everywhere.

I think it is a fair outcome as i have said previously ..not ideal but they never are!

[marmar80] 23/3/2023 10:05

Good morning Kooba.12p cannot be paid now because the risk of cessation is too great.Ok, if we talk about taking an ownership in Hur with P6 & tax losses and not doing anything with it.However if Prax can manage to takeover another producer using Hurricane, which is a plan to do, then even a day after a transaction things are changing as not only one well will be operational, they still will be able to get £91p back from any £1 invested. This will give them access to £300m worth tax losses which are worth that 12p.Am I right?

[ctc1] 23/3/2023 10:02

Yeah I'll take 12.5p pretty much guaranteed over longer period