Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[kooba] 16/12/2021 16:51

Reasonable recovery in brent , up 2% ..all helps!

[kooba] 16/12/2021 16:48

Yep should be 4 offloads on existing FPSO contract or 5 offloads if we extend before the redemption 24 July 2022.There are central costs guess at $8m and a small amount of interest on the bonds left to pay Jan ,April and at redemption now less than $5m in total.So we could have additional $85m -$112m free cash by redemption...so add that to the say $55m year end figure totals $143-170m take off the $80m bonds outstanding. $63m-$90m by end July free of debt? Hopefully with that extended FPSO contract continuing to generate meaningful cash for 12 -18months.About time the board nailed down the extension and came up with a business plan to engage with their larger shareholders about.Parallel looking and discussing corporate opportunities around the tax position, from producing asset acquisitions to potential sale of the business. The tax losses could be worth significantly more than the current market cap alone.imo.All in good faith and there are obviously operation risks..no advise intended.

[canetois] 16/12/2021 16:21

kooba: that slight loss might be made up for by the AM bursting at the gunnels in January. We'll get there now in any event.

[kooba] 16/12/2021 15:53

The next cargo is anticipated to be lifted in January 2022.So no cash inflow in December ..therefore cash likely to be slightly down at year end on central and administrative costs.

[ngms27] 16/12/2021 15:24

What Taurus Merde.

LuckyJoe999 pasturised.

[luckyjoe999] 16/12/2021 15:16

Post from lse bb today:

RagingBull2
Posts: 76
Price: 4.152
No Opinion
RE: RNS
Today 13:08

“More buys then sells. This should be moving up.”

Significantly more Buys than Sells today, HUR should already be in the 12-14p range based on present day fundamentals alone, eventual catch-up rally here will undoubtedly be fast and furious so please do tighten your seatbelts!

[nicholasblake] 16/12/2021 14:53

Not being technical, what ought we to read into water cut consistently edging upwards since June?

[nicholasblake] 16/12/2021 14:50

Going concern cash is likely to be c. $110m by end of December, vs $80m of Bonds. All things being equal, I think we can expect platform extension following receipt of January offload.

[ngms27] 16/12/2021 14:44

1) I've never offered advice, just personal opinion
2) Yep I bought a top up tranche at 55p
3) My average buy price was below 25p as my largest buy was mid teens
4) I sold out for a small profit

Glad you're currently in profit but the risk is it evaporates to zero with a single RNS based on three different possible events:
1) Bluewater contract not extended - Unlikely I think
2) ESP failure - Will happen it's when not if. A material risk
3) Bubble point - Will happen shortly. A material risk

Sure upside could be multiples from your 2.5p entry but personally I see better and much safer risk/reward plays in this sector.

[kooba] 16/12/2021 14:33

N..thingy
Seem to remember you once saying you were still buying in the 50p range.
I’m in at 2.5p if you care to look back from when i started posting last year i was in previously in low teens pre campaign but jumped out too soon so didn’t see the highs. if you want to go back that far was posting back then when it was a backwater ..so doing ok thanks. Certainly very pleased i have questioned and ignored your advise over the past year or so.
So your presumption on your and my outcome is somewhat previous as are all your calls.
There were a few obviously CA but some on here predicting the outcome where we are now over the restructuring fiasco ..you were very very wrong and would have folded like a deckchair to the restructuring.
It’s good you now finally accept there is shareholder value and that you were wrong. This should be a pointer to questioning yourself as to your bias and addressing your dogmatism for the future.
Enough now..don’t bother replying ,back on ignore you go you attention craving chap you.

[thecomposer] 16/12/2021 14:05

Proactive Investors:

“Hurricane Energy PLC (LSE:HUR) is higher after a positive update from its Lancaster field in Scotland.

The oil and gas group said the P6 well was producing around 9,900 barrels of oil a day, and it also successfully completed the plugging and final abandonment of the Lancaster 205/21a-4z well at a cost of around US$1mln.

It added that US$2.2mln of decommissioning security (previously classified as restricted cash) had now been released back to the company and was used in part to fund the plugging activity.

As of 30 November 2021, the company had net free cash of US$127mln compared to US$99mln a month ago.”

[ngms27] 16/12/2021 13:44

davocon, it's in the name, pasturised.

[davocon] 16/12/2021 13:24

In the meantime, we are rising on decent volume.

[ngms27] 16/12/2021 12:17

kooba, yes I was proved right on the water being from an aquifer and not perched. I got out of here on many multiples of todays share price whatever you might like to think.

So if you have held equity through that than I think my outcome has been materially better than yours ;)

[senseman] 16/12/2021 12:15

fellas - with respect - 'IF' is a huge word. the village idiot knew POO would rise hugely as vaccines worked and market recovered - read history. ergo POO did not 'save' HUR - high POO was reasonable expectation. 27 argues the kitchen sink on a very narrow bandwidth picture. one CANNOT do that. as soon as one throws perspective and proportionality out of the window, one's argument fails. and stevie - are you barking mad giving any crumb of comfort to one of the resident nutters? he will misuse miscite and misquote and crumb of comfort (he immediately did)

[ngms27] 16/12/2021 12:00

Thanks Steve73. It's already there. They said 10k bopd @ $40 oil was the breakeven price. They are now producing below that figure.

I have accepted that production has held up far far better than I modelled (Pre ESP mind you) so it's fair to say that principally POO saved HUR equity in conjunction with the ESP allowing the well to sweep oil from a larger surface area which Steve73 did state would likely happen ;)

Note the average ESP lifespan is 3 years but it's clear that HUR have been making the ESP work harder and harder to maintain more or less constant fluid production. Water being denser that oil has a greater wear characteristic than oil. Gas in pump would be a disaster.

[steve73] 16/12/2021 11:46

kooba - to be fair to ngms, if the oil price had remained where it was 12 months ago, HUR would be looking at a significant shortfall on the bond repayment, and the production rate for CoP would be approaching fairly soon.

It was the oil price rise that saved the day... and prevented the BH attempted takeover (with due recognition of CA).

Yes, I feel there is very much a good "continue" case, but IF the pump fails then it's game-over almost immediately... and I think this is why equity is not currently reflecting the higher potential value... still a binary bet on a c. $1MM piece of kit.

edit: when I was working in NS operations (c. 15 years ago), the mean time between failures for ESPs was around 2 years, having been increased from just 1 year a decade or so earlier, mainly by careful attention to restarts, ramp-ups, etc... At the time there was thought to be relatively few gains left to pursue.

[canetois] 16/12/2021 11:32

I nominate kooba to deal with all future HUR matters geological.

[kooba] 16/12/2021 11:21

Ng….whatever
Maths maybe not everyone’s strong point..
Steve i believe is saying that the company with another four offloads by end May , will have excess cash over bond repayment of $70m.
He then goes on to estimate that an extension of AM , depending on terms could provide further $130m free cash over next 12 months.
There is also $18.7m in escrow against early termination to free if no early termination is triggered.

So i make that rather in excess of $200m by june ‘23

I would hasten to add i believe those numbers could prove conservative.

As to further plans and tax losses that would be value accretive then thats above and beyond simply draining economic serves from well 6. Equally any issue at bubble point or ESP failure would be negatives.

Six months ago you said the equity was worthless , 12 months ago you forecast the well would have ceased production mid 2021..i only hope no body makes any investment decisions on your calls…you are never right.

[thecomposer] 16/12/2021 11:19

Same as bondholders here, CA also fully realize that many O&G companies would only DREAM of HUR's current production levels and at today's lucrative Brent prices where now additionally, even higher prices are clearly forecasted for next year onwards; West of Shetlands is known to be an extremely prolific region, and I believe HUR's mysteriously vanished Oil (Billions!) will suddenly and miraculously reappear one day in the not too distant future, and now with this new very much improved proactive HUR BoD in place, fortunately, it will only be us HUR shareholders including long suffering LTHs who will get to enjoy them (along with the relating rewards) instead of the unknown mysterious group of "ad hoc bondholders" as intended by the old corrupt incompetent and now thankfully Ex-HUR BoD! Also, don't loose site of the massive HUR Tax Credits, they on their own are worth more than our unrealistically low market capitalisation of today!

[ngms27] 16/12/2021 11:05

senseman, maths obviously isn't your strong point.

Equities currently valued at £80m.

To support that they have to pay off the bonds and generate free cash of £80m in addition assuming production stops in June 2023.

Steve73 numbers suggest this is a close call. Now if an ESP fails or bubble point has negative affects then equity is currently beyond terminal value.

Kaos is right there needs to be something else, lets call this Plan B for equity to appreciate to any material degree. We haven't yet seen Plan B.

I'm not saying there won't be one and equity can benefit but Lancaster is bombed out as a cash cow for equity in the next 18 months max.

[onlylongterm9] 16/12/2021 10:56

Brent Price Up, building momentum, and doing nicely here so far today:

[senseman] 16/12/2021 10:56

27 - what utter drive. that is neither what steve wrote or implied. rather the opposite. you would argue that a hooker was a virgin