Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[tradoil] 15/12/2021 15:45

BoreOff Walter

[back2basics1] 15/12/2021 14:47

“West of Shetland oil and gas remains UK’s best bet for growth despite recent setbacks”:

“Despite being relatively under-explored and under-developed compared to the rest of the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) it has yielded some huge, if hard-won, successes.”

[ngms27] 15/12/2021 14:30

Further North East along the Rona Ridge.

I don't believe HUR found overlying prospective sand on drilling just sands on the flanks. Solan anyone...

[monkeybusiness1] 15/12/2021 14:25

Meaningless Map/Content found and displayed to support an even more meaningless sentence, lol.

[kooba] 15/12/2021 14:17

Where's Clair exactly?

[thecomposer] 15/12/2021 12:26

ngms27, have you ever looked at HUR‘s WoS acreage on a current IHS Markit’s map (paid subscription), it is not only vast but potentially incredibly rich, and that’s why all surrounding areas have already been gobbled up by the bigger players, DYOR.

[bearnecessities33] 15/12/2021 12:02

As a long term HUR shareholder, I am now more optimistic here than ever before, GLA.

[luckyjoe999] 15/12/2021 11:59

Post from lse bb today:

TopCat81
Posts: 424
Price: 4.288
No Opinion
RE: bonds
Today 11:43

Once again, it is now very clear that HUR’s now Ex Board of Directors tried EVERY underhanded tactics that they could think off to deliberately completely destroy shareholder value and no doubt that the last HUR CPR was also part of this unbelievably massive Ex-BoD “giveaway scam”, all stakeholders now need a new and truly independent CPR of HUR’s vast and potentially extremely prolific WoS acreage conducted in order to see “the significant value we see in our West of Shetland portfolio”.

After all, “How is it possible that an independent assessment carried out in 2017 is able to produce in place volumes for Halifax amounting to 5,143 MMstb (best estimate), up to 9,043 MMstb as a High case, when only a few years later, without any more wells having been drilled on the discovery, its volumes essentially disappear from the radar?”; West of Shetland is the region’s most prolific area and that is precisely why ALL of HUR’s surrounding acreage has been snapped up (and predominantly by the big boys) but strangely, HUR’s vast WoS acreage, licenses, absolutely massive Tax Credits, unique IP……R30;…was all about to be given away for free!

[kooba] 15/12/2021 11:00

Ha..thanks for your vote of confidence..i doubt i am diverse enough these days but was a nomad and served on an Aim board in my time..not entirely sure i would have the diplomatic skills to talk to the bondholders constructively!

[kooba] 15/12/2021 10:34

Yep might be better ..looking at 2.8m barrels in 12 months $10 jump adds $28m if ,as a number predict we see $100 brent then obviously makes a big impact.My average production could be slightly low , management forecasts were for production to continue to end '23 with production then down to 6000...so could look at average over 8000 on 12 month view. Also as well as outside risk of issues around bubble point with gas there is also a stronger possibility that one will see a stabilisation in water cut and therefore in production from what i am told.Number of variables and some risks but seems a no brainer to secure the AM for at least a year for all remaining stakeholders.

[kooba] 15/12/2021 09:57

Cash position always slightly difficult to forecast.They have interest payments to bonds..timescales?Appears interest was due 24/10/21 so last payment should have been taken into account for $99m figure (Nov '21 rns)Next int payment 24/01..then 24/04..redemption 24/07/22Though future interest payments are coming down nicely.They then have central operating costs again no real transparency on any quarterly variation.But there should be close to $30m left from that $99m and one offload in the bag.My guess would be year end cash nearer $40-$45m range..maybe being conservative. Offload may not hit the cash position for November to be announced within days i guess.I figure 4 further offloads during the life of current Bluewater contract ( will also have $18.7m released to free money at end of existing contract)..5 before redemption due if we can extend the production contract we would then have to have money held in escrow against early termination say $25m.We would then have an unencumbered production asset averaging around 8000 bopd and allowing 5% downtime and production costs $30 per barrel..i am taking $80 average price for next year as i see a sharp recovery near term , maybe can be accused of being conservative there but just guesstimating.Would give cash net of central overheads of $130m in 12 months.There are risks..but there is a idea of the reward.

[officerdigby] 15/12/2021 09:42

The negative RNSs are needed to shake out BHs. With unfortunate consequences to short term share price Any discussion on the water cut to be had? To what level of water can they produce too? I note that the 7z was described somewhere as watered out? Is that wrong? What level of water did it get too? Or was it the connection between two well that was only real problem? .Thanks.

[ngms27] 15/12/2021 09:39

Not as simple as that as there are liabilities that only accrue later.

You also need to add a further £80m to support the current share price.

Bond Holders are jumping in my opinion due to the imminent bubble point risk. i.e. 10% in 6 months is not risk free as they could also not be redeemed.

[senseman] 15/12/2021 08:52

Good posts today. 80 mill owed, 55 mill free cash. Phoenix that is HUR about to soar from ashes. But still weighed by RNS false negativity

[sji] 15/12/2021 07:51

So, according to my rough calculations, HUR should still have some $55m in free cash (counting cash from our latest oil offload in late November)against around $80m bonds due in 7 months' time, a deficit of only $25m which should almost entirely be recovered with our next offload in mid-January 2022. Whilst we are still not out of the woods yet, one should admit that our position has extremely improved in the last 6 months thanks to CA. I wonder what is going to happen in respect of the $17m squandered by our previous BOD earlier this year on the restructuring proposal which was thrown out by the courts! Also, I wonder why our previous BOD never purchased any bonds for redemption when they were lying at one-third of their current price earlier this year. CA had been encouraging them to do just that for over a year now.

Anyway, the next couple of months should really be interesting for HUR shareholders. IMO, once all bonds are cleared, we should get the company's plan forward to enhance our oil production.

[nicholasblake] 15/12/2021 07:48

The hedgies are looking for 15% plus returns. At these prices the max return is at the poor end, and it is not without risk. Expect Coy could get a chunk more at 96.

[kooba] 15/12/2021 07:37

As they run to the end of the financial year they can bank a huge return on the holding over the year ..probably doubled from where they were. Some might have even written the holdings off. Sure their risk reward analysis may come into it and even an outside chance of production issue makes cashing in make sense..but that does not mean a high risk.There is also some pressure i imagine to not be the last man (he she indeterminate no offence intended !) standing if there was an issue and others had taken the money and run and they are left holding the baby.I do not see that this demonstrates genuine concern at imminent failure..and since the board are inside on production and the bondholders clearly are not got to figure the board are more aware of risk profile.

[steve73] 15/12/2021 07:27

IMO it's bit worrying that so many of the BH's are prepared to take a c. 10% haircut to "cash-out" now rather than waiting another 6 months.

I'm sure they can't see an alternative investment that would pay anywhere close to that, which leads me to conclude that some of the BH's think the bonds will default - (meaning the shareholders would get nothing..??)

Of course, from HUR's viewpoint, it does make perfect sense to repay as much as possible (whilst they are able), since every little saving helps.

[kooba] 15/12/2021 07:26

Makes good sense why sit on the money earning no interest..saving on redemption cost and interest fees some of 9% ..annualised effective 15% return to redemption.Shows too that they remain confident of repaying outstanding with some margin imo.Dip in oil disappointing but this keeps things on track and i see a decent rebound in Brent early next year.