Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bearnecessities33] 23/11/2021 14:22

Brent prices surging today and back again in the $81+ range.

[kooba] 23/11/2021 14:02

$2 off lows back into 80s.

[kooba] 23/11/2021 13:28

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/rounding-error-oil-prices-surge-biden-spr-release-backfires

[wbodger] 23/11/2021 09:51

Reading that comment on HUR in CRS's RNS suggests Bernstein will want to get his reward for gaining 27% of a very solvent oil producer at a price below 27% of the current Market Cap. I think he will try to keep that 27% in whatever the successor to CRS looks like.

Anyway wind down will take a while and meanwhile HUR ought to re-rate when the plan for the next two years is presented (at latest by mid-2022).

[monkeybusiness1] 23/11/2021 09:48

“OPEC considers lowering production to account for oil reserve releases”:

hxxps://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/11/22/opec-considers-lowering-production-to-account-for-oil-reserve-releases

[kooba] 22/11/2021 21:18

This was totally anticipated and perhaps it means that some holdings may not be held to there full potential but does mean they will accelerate any corporate or strategic solution that maximises their return in a more limited time frame would be my view.

[kooba] 22/11/2021 21:15

Do you read anything ?No fire sale and CRS working on strategic sales...wonder what 'anticipated corporate transactions' means exactly ?'The Articles now require the Fund to formulate proposals to reorganise, reconstruct, or wind up the Company. In the coming weeks, the Fund intends to provide shareholders with specific proposals. It is currently envisaged that these will centre around the continued realisation of assets and increasing capital returns to shareholders. Based on the Manager's assessment of the status and timing of anticipated corporate transactions, the Fund is targeting additional shareholder returns of at least GBP40 million or 50p a share before 30 June 2022. This would bring returns of capital since the 2013 amendment to the Articles to more than GBP100 million. When such disposals are concluded, it is intended that returns to shareholders would be paid as soon as practicable. Further significant realisations and returns of capital are planned for the period after 30 June 2022.'

[luckyjoe999] 22/11/2021 17:28

Post taken from lse bb:

onthebeach3
Posts: 719
Price: 4.40
No Opinion
Sun 10:10
RE: Crystal Amber AGM

In order to hedge against their large investment in CA, Saba Capital Managment opened Shorts in CA’s largest holdings (like DLAR, and ALM), interestingly however, Saba has absolutely no Short position in HUR, and tracked institutional Short positions in HUR remain at 0%, as IMHO, upside potential in HUR now by far outweighs any downside risks, please DYOR:

hxxps://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B580MF54/

hxxps://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B3DGH821/

hxxps://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BLRLH124/

[wbodger] 22/11/2021 17:18

I took it off, so you get the votes :))

[thecomposer] 22/11/2021 17:13

@Wbodger, No problem, it’s a key note from CA today, and certainly worth a re-post, thanks.

[wbodger] 22/11/2021 17:08

(Sorry Composer, crossed with your post)

[bearnecessities33] 22/11/2021 17:08

No certainly not (no fire sale!) as whole point of Saba Capital buying in to CA was to enhance value via any sales, hence now whatever the process ahead, it will be very calculated and value creative over time, particularly when it comes to HUR which by far has the most upside potential here IMHO.

[wbodger] 22/11/2021 17:04

Edit: Post removed, duplicate.

[frederickbloggs] 22/11/2021 17:03

Fire sale now CRS is likely to be wound up?

[thecomposer] 22/11/2021 16:56

From CA RNS of Today:

"At Hurricane Energy, in the six months to 30 June 2021, operating cash flow was $75.9 million. Since Crystal Amber successfully blocked the proposed financial restructuring in the High Court, prospects have been transformed. The Fund has a clear pathway to maximising the strategic value of its shareholding and believes that if production continues according to the current projected trajectory and the oil price remains stable, this realisation could be at a multiple of the current share price."

[miltondad] 22/11/2021 16:34

CRS happened as expected. 50% of votes for continuation of CA was not enough and now it is planning the next steps.

[cyrilsneer1] 22/11/2021 14:58

Yep, will be interesting to see what happens over at CRS today.

[dave999dave999] 22/11/2021 14:39

yes not something to thow money at...

by the end of the day 27% of the shares may be up for sale again....


Dave

[lfdkmp] 22/11/2021 13:39

Steve

Many thanks for clear and prompt response.

So if I understand it the "events" of well 7 and revised OWC (and fundamentally different second CPR) overtook the EPS which rapidly went out of focus as the company struggled to address the new realities. Ditto I suppose any thoughts of further (FFD) activity, particularly in view of the very active bondholders.

Quite a different animal to the one at the time of the AM setting sail from Dubai,

[steve73] 22/11/2021 11:56

LFD..
The EPS via the AM was supposed to be a 6-10 program. Data gathered, and profits made were to provide the backbone of funding for the FFD(s). Early data indicated that it would be possible to add a couple of wells (incl. Lincoln, which proved unsuitable).

As I then understand it, the early watering-out of the 7 well prompted a revised OWC many hundreds of m shallower, which resulted in a 90%+ reduction in potential resources & "proven" reserves.

IMHO a separate FFD now looks unlikely, although a couple more wells from the Halifax end of the ridge might be possible (although the presence of mobile oil still needs proving) and funding is currently restricted due to the bonds. With further income from production looking ever diminishing it may be insufficient to encourage external funding.

[lfdkmp] 22/11/2021 10:41

I'm going to ask a couple of basic, even simplistic questions.

In doing so I wish to be clear that I am am not wishing to be controversial and realise I could be open to accusations of not being up to date and even worse open to ridicule. A risk I am willing to take.

With the fascinating developments re the ad hoc bondholders' promoted restructuring and the firm Mr Justice Zacaroni rebuttal, I have not heard for quite a while any mention of EPS and/or FFD.

Have we now moved firmly out of the era of early production system and its importance in terms of data gathering and knowledge? Have we shelved any/all thoughts of full field development? Is HUR now a completely different proposition to what it was when the terms EPS (and the potential, later, FFD) were the common currency?

Would welcome any constructive thoughts on what for me would be a very welcome update/sanity check.

[ngms27] 21/11/2021 17:02

Steve73, in the past they have said bubble point is around 1605 PSI and current bottom hole pressure is 1619 PSI.

That to me suggests using your calculations that the top of the reservoir is already below bubble point and thus there will be a gas cap of some sorts.

This may well explain why the production profile of Well 6 has materially out performed the progression it was taking?

[back2basics1] 21/11/2021 10:31

“West of Shetland oil and gas remains UK’s best bet for growth despite recent setbacks”:

“Despite being relatively under-explored and under-developed compared to the rest of the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) it has yielded some huge, if hard-won, successes.”

[fat frank] 20/11/2021 21:09

Steve73:

As always you make a realistic, informed case.

HUR has been one of my worst performing investments and yet I remain fascinated that a well drilled in the wrong place, based on wildly incorrect data, could be so prolific.

West of Shetlands is a strange place and I wonder how much P6 would have produced if it was in the right place??? I read somewhere that even the completion was set at the wrong depth??

I'm just not sure if it's all over yet.

That's why I still have a (reduced) holding