Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[professor_az] 18/2/2021 14:27

Anyone seen Fat Frank

[kooba] 18/2/2021 14:08

Very true..how can you do that ..would be jobbing in a few counters all day with some of these spreads!

[bocase] 18/2/2021 13:58

Yes it is meaningless. Better to subscribe £7 per month or whatever to have direct market access and put your orders on the order book yourself. At least you can buy at the bid and sell at the offer and do away with the spread.

[kooba] 18/2/2021 12:58

Its an order book , it is order led not price led counter where the MMs create a buy sell spread. In an order driven market a buyer can put up say a 3.75p bid , if that bid gets hit by a seller is it a buy or a sell exactly? It's both So differentiating between buyers and sellers in order driven markets is not a thing. It looks to me on the order book that it is rarely the MMs who are forming the touch ..but they normally match it in the rsp systems.

[canetois] 18/2/2021 11:51

In this day and age, if we can't tell the proper difference between those who are shelling out their brass in order to own some shares and those cashing in to get some of their brass back, I'll stand for Prime Minister. For God's sake.

[bocase] 18/2/2021 09:41

Slingerman: Early in the day the up or down amount is fairly meaningless as the spread will be wide and it is the last trade which determines whether is is stated to be up or down. It can therefore go from 3% up to 3% down without anything really changing, except the last trade.

There will have been buys. Those recorded statements of buy versus sells are meaningless as it just relates to where the transaction sat relative to the mid price..

[slingerman] 18/2/2021 08:20

Anyone else think it strange, that HUR is up 3.6 but no buys showing only sells. Asking for a friend. ;-)

[kooba] 18/2/2021 06:59

There is a strong argument to make market purchases when possible sub 50, not only does it reduce the full redemption due but also would save on the 7.5% yield. That yield at current price obviously represents over 15%. It is unclear on the company's ability to make market purchases of the CB to cancel (full terms not available from company) and on whether holders would sell..last indicated price i heard was still 45. The company is also weighing up capex on improving production levels and duration so probably all in the mix.I understand a bond buyback was being put forward by Crystal Amber some time ago but never got a straight answer.Thing is the board seem nervous and somewhat indecisive, they have advisors all over the place and recently signed up another probably all jockeying for restructuring fees when there may be a simpler value enhancing way forward that better protects equity holders interests. Although they have said they would engage with all stakeholders 4 months ago i do not believe this is the case with larger equity holders....so far.

[leoneobull] 18/2/2021 06:52

Simple answer is they must repay bonds in full BUT they can repurchase bonds on secondary markets, as suggested by CA

[sji] 18/2/2021 06:14

I am not sure whether this is possible. Can HUR buy some bonds from the market (not directly from individual bondholders) and cancel them? I mean, with Brent price now above $65 per barrel, I guess that with just one monthly offload of say 420k, we make something like 420k x $30 (profit, right?) = $12.6m in profit. If HUR can buy $12.6m worth of bonds at say half their original price (currently, they are even less than half!), we could eliminate circa $25m worth of the bonds (out of $230m) in just one go, no?!

Even if that is not possible, just sustaining current production until the bonds conversion, should be enough to pay off the bonds in full and still remain with around $100m cash in hand for future developments.

IMO, the price of oil this year (forecast by some to rise above $70 soon!) will do an enormous difference to HUR's fortunes. I am keeping my fingers crossed.

[mhin2] 17/2/2021 23:56

I just listened again to an old trice malcy interview...lets see what happens...interesting how things have changed, but is all lost? Have a listen...



In particular, note what trice says..."its an enormous area and we are not short of hole locations...to say the least"

But times have changed, lets hope that Barbara Smith worked to worst case scenario, as she intimated, and she is convinced there is `value' etc.

In the meantime Poo above 60 (or50) only requires HUR to sustain the current production level...lincoln would be a significant boost, and the BOD have always said that 7z was an option (I dont think it is abandoned...but correct me if I have missed something)

[sloppyg] 17/2/2021 22:32

Let’s not forget that at 60-70 Brent the bond redemption would have been a formality.

It has been the perfect storm for sure but one senses that storm is gradually moving through......

[leoneobull] 17/2/2021 18:06

My view is that Lincoln is commercial at 60 to 70 brent .whether that means drilling another well as LC may be too close to OWC, I dont know. Surely spirit also want to get something back on their investment too?

[leoneobull] 17/2/2021 17:55

Good post HD. Voted up.

[kooba] 17/2/2021 16:56

Yep cash is everything here and to get best bang for buck ..and then it's where the bucks come from. I agree though that there is highly likely there is still much bigger recoverable potential to these finds it's a question of approach funding and timing. The downside of the oil price rise is that the bondholders may now want to just sit on their hands if they think Lancaster can continue as a cash machine and they get their money back.Do you think Maris is man to make sense of it all ? I heard he was identified as the guy to lead development before it all went wrong but the good Dr wanted control ?

[hiddendepths] 17/2/2021 16:45

kooba - I think the Lincoln Crestal looks an interesting and relatively low-cost way of finding out whether that field has a water issue too and providing much needed cashflow whether it has or not. However, the company's financial resources are very limited and it may decide that there's a better way to recover the situation, such as the mooted waterflood, which seems odd to me given the near-vertical nature of the fractures but I'm certainly not technically savvy enough to suggest that I have any insight at all into that decision!

As for the consultation process, it seems very likely that it is pretty well advanced and that the appointment of a new broker suggests that something will be announced sooner rather than later. But I'm just guessing really!

[kooba] 17/2/2021 16:37

Sensible comments and it remains up in the air if there is value here but certainly the position should be improved with $15 on the oil price since Dec update.From what you have read do you think there is merit in the tie back to Lincoln Crestal , it seems the company do not have long to make that decision as it is due to be plugged and abandoned in June this year.Even with reduced reserve estimates if one could recover up to 10000 bopd through the excess capacity on AM it could be a big boost to production and extend the viability of Lancaster as production levels slip? It is 4 months since the company said they were to start engagement with stakeholders as an independent CPR was being prepared , it strikes me they need to accelerate the process as time is not on the company's side with proposals and this discussion needs to be sooner rather than later.

[hiddendepths] 17/2/2021 16:13

Leoneobull - been selling bits on each big rise but remaining shares still worth 15 times original investment.

Still watching here. Unlike some ex holders, I have an open mind about buying back in when it looks propitious - I got close a week or so ago but unfortunately (or unwisely!) decided against.

I do believe there's a lot of oil in them thar hills, a hell of a lot more than the current assessments indicate! The conundrum is how to get at it at reasonable cost without excessive water influx. It wouldn't surprise me at all if some bright spark finds a way - but whether it will be in time for HUR is another matter. Still, the acreage in a $60+ oil price scenario, especially with tax losses, could have a fair bit of value anyway. Who's to say, for instance, that Halifax or Lincoln have the same water issue that Lancaster has?

[jotoha2] 17/2/2021 14:55

Very solid share graph , lets get through that 5p barrier.

[leoneobull] 17/2/2021 13:45

Lucky you. Do you still have your 8p Arb?

[imnotspartacus] 17/2/2021 13:25

Brent now over $64!

[imnotspartacus] 17/2/2021 12:31

Bull flag forming.

[hiddendepths] 17/2/2021 10:21

It makes me laugh for sure - but I bought ARB for 8p in late November!

[leoneobull] 17/2/2021 06:24

1 bitcoin 50,000 usd12000 barrels a day.. value? Not much.Something funny going on... !

[leoneobull] 16/2/2021 21:47

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-Sachs-Turns-Bullish-On-Energy-Stocks.htmlGoldman, whose strategist Alessio Rizzi writes that the bank continues "to have a pro-cyclical tilt in our asset allocation" and following the poor performance of energy stocks in the past year, the bank thinks that "adding energy equity exposure is attractive at this juncture, especially considering our constructive commodity view."To justify its bullish bias, Rizzi writes that since the start of the year, "markets have been risk-on and cross-asset performance has repriced the potential for reflation" which is in line with Goldman's core views as it expects "pro-cyclical assets to outperform, supported by strong global growth and broadly dovish policy from central banks. Our US economists revised up 2021 US GDP growth to 6.8% given the increased chance of a large US fiscal stimulus package and pulled forward the first Fed policy hike to 1H 2024."