Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[tournesol] 14/2/2021 18:43

Kooba

I think your analysis of Pharos is much too generous. Their management team failed quite spectacularly. They had a licence in Vietnam which was part owned with the national oil co and which had a relatively short life. That meant that any oil left in the ground at the end of their licence term reverted 100% to their state owned partner. Surprise, surprise the partner and the state dragged their feet over development of the field because that was obviously in their best interest. Duhhh!

They also repeatedly raised expectations by over-promising on the modest amount of explo drilling that they did do in VN - almost all of which turned out disappointing.

Their venture into the Congo was very ill considered. Firstly there is the rampant corruption. Secondly they wanted to drill in an area considered by many to be environmentally sensitive. They allowed the WWF to run rings round them in terms of PR and were made to look grasping and corrupt (I did not believe any of the allegations but mud sticks). Eventually they gave up and relinquished the acreage. I would not be surprised if it were being explored by the Chinese now using slave labour.

Then they went into Egypt in yet another ill considered move and over-paid for unpromising acreage in yet another corrupt jurisdiction. Last time I looked thaty was not working out either.

Whilst all this has been going on their core assets in VN have been gradually depleting as their licence moves ever closer to expiry so their cashflow has been drying up.

It's not just a bit of bad luck. It's very uninspired/uninspiring management and a degree of complacency.

One of the problems in the oil industry is that management teams get very very very well paid even when they destroy wealth for their shareholders. Management's interests are rarely well aligned with shareholders - as evidenced at both Pharos and at Hur where management have failed but have still departed several million pounds better off than when they arrived. That does not seem right to me.

[btvitexcoinvxcryptowhale] 14/2/2021 15:49

What's funny is now all the wee silly traders will post on lse upset trying to get in early Mon again lol.They might not mention a Shell buyout is on the cards when they post today https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/19084342.oil-giant-plans-north-sea-developments-targeting-net-zero/BT

[btvitexcoinvxcryptowhale] 14/2/2021 15:24

Told you.You're all worrying about who can afford to drill your licence.Look Shell look like they want to happily help Love ya 2.59p buys I got was ace https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/19084342.oil-giant-plans-north-sea-developments-targeting-net-zero/

[steve73] 14/2/2021 09:49

Only need to look at the performance of Soco/Pharos to answer that.!!

[jotoha2] 14/2/2021 09:39

They are covering their backsides , typical of inept personalities , lets see what the new CEO is made of .

[leoneobull] 14/2/2021 08:54

The share price hasn't moved much due to the Dec RNS. It's typical HUR BOD to warn of dilution then an RNS later to state how great the cash balance is due to recovering poo....

[thecomposer] 14/2/2021 06:33

Institutional Shorters here have been rapidly closing their Short positions in recent days/weeks, also, Brent incredibly now at circa USD $63 while still gaining further momentum and thereby, resulting in substantial increases in HUR net cash as we move forward in 2021; tailwinds here now seem to be timely and very much favouring HUR executive management at a key period, hence, hope they waste no time and utilise this unexpectedly positive situation since the only thing that has not yet moved north here is the currently very much ailing HUR SP, DYOR.

[jotoha2] 13/2/2021 11:04

Copied from LSE but confirms what we are starting to see , buy buy buy .

[laserdisc] 13/2/2021 09:52

Chrysaor Production has awarded the harsh environment semi Paul B Loyd, Jr. a 78-day contract extension in the UK North Sea. seems from August

Transocean have updated their fleet status, report
shows the extension maybe connected with us as we terminated this rig last year so that it could go to Chrysaor i have not checked out what the present situation is re chrysaor drilling timetable some rig swap i reckon from sale of ConocoPhillips see

Back then Transocean said that Hurricane Energy had terminated the contract for convenience

RE LUNDIN
Potential risk of Johan Sverdrup shutdown from union strike action

[leoneobull] 13/2/2021 07:56

You have to respect the sense of humour of HUR shareholders.From LSE...kitchen sink BOOM BOOM!!cashkingPrice: 3.20No OpinionRE: Oil priceFri 18:09A Few I Suspect Will Be Throwing The Kitchen Sink @ This Monday !

[leoneobull] 13/2/2021 07:47

The CBs have increased in price from 30 cents in USD to 45. That's quite some recovery....TLW were as low as 28 c if I recall Ggh Ggh 's post at one point. All here depends on 3 factors 1) CPR 2) amount of dilution and 3 funding needed for FWP. Only one of these three is known but even then we don't know if there is a Plan B such as CA suggestion and mine of develop Lincoln. If Crestal too close in terms of OWC, drill another one....

[leoneobull] 13/2/2021 07:41

Good post Steve. Good luck with Arb, I made a little trading it but then turned down opportunity to buy. More at 70p...it has doubled in about 3 weeks. That's crypto!

[kaos3] 13/2/2021 05:22

CPR - hot potato - whatever it will say - I ll round it up by a lot - because all people doing it are aware of litigation risks etc and will use "safety factor" (as it is used in engineering) at its upmost multiple (result being different by factor of several times - compared to the result without pressure of the outside - human nature) to protect themselfs.

[steve73] 13/2/2021 03:57

Frank - I agree with your ..695 post "IF" the new CPR can give a convincing and believable increase in possible Resources. IMO Reserves cannot increase without a fully funded forward work plan, and that relies on committing to an extension of the AM contract.

I also think the bonds still maintain most of the influence. If the co. wants to extend the term, then the CP will need to be renegotiated, and that would likely be close to the current share price Let's assume it could be negotiated at a 30# premium to the current price.. that would make it c. 4p. Recall the current CP is 40p, so a renegotiation would entail 10x as much dilution as currently "expected". This would dilute existing shareholders to around a 1/3 of the current share.

Previously, had the EPS generated the expected income and somehow confirmed the extent of the oil acrosss the wider acreage, then I was of the opinion that the shares could have been worth some 8-10x what they were. With the drastic reduction in the height of the Lancaster oil column, and the difficulty in access of other sections of the FB (Linc & Warw), then this was clearly very overoptimistic, and perhaps 20-30p would now be a more realistic target... But when you take into account the dilution that would now result from the renegotiated CB's, then 8-10p would be the fully valued price I could now for-see.

Sure, that would be a 3-4 fold increase from here, but even that is still reliant on maintaining current production until the FWP has been actioned, and would require significant additional funding to progress the wider developments.


For those who have decided to stay in for the ride it's good to see the price rising - perhaps RT has finally sold out... (I think he was below the minimum declarable share, and so once he resigned, he would have been able to sell without any notification being required.)

[ctc1] 12/2/2021 21:42

If the bonds are really priced as low as appear to be then not a problem for co buying them up. More likely a cosy symbiotic relationship. hxxps://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/hrcxf-stock

[fat frank] 12/2/2021 19:57

When you look back at all the pontifications from posters over the past few weeks, myself included, nothing has changed. Holders still need a believable CPR that shows an increase in recoverable reserves and we need a financed forward plan to get the stuff out and into a refinery.

Simple as that.

The increased price of oil obviously helps at it makes the overall future operation more attractive.

I still hold as I think the chances of recovering some of my losses makes it worth risking the pittance I have remaining.

I struggle to see the CB holders being more powerful with the massively increased income due to POO if the CPR is favourable. I do not believe they would be able to drive the company into the ground if it had a future. An extension would be a better option for them with minimal increased risk.

It all depends on the CPR.

Looking forward to the downticks......

[kooba] 12/2/2021 18:46

Could make the numbers on capex more compelling to boost production with crude up here..but could also make the CB holders less supportive of such spending. Hope the board stand up for shareholders ..or that institutional holders like CA who are only motivated in enhancing shareholder value are involved in the process of a forward plan .

[leoneobull] 12/2/2021 17:41

Delighted about the Brent price. Some have said it's the only positive. Yes, indeed as we only produce one product!

[bocase] 12/2/2021 17:30

My wife would give me a thumbs down too if I pointed out that I had just had a jump.

Have a good weekend all.

[kooba] 12/2/2021 17:29

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-soaring-amid-supercycle-chatter

[kooba] 12/2/2021 17:10

Ha both got thumbs down for merely pointing out crude has had a jump !Anyway I'm told the early bird gets an early beer ...cheers.