Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ngms27] 07/2/2021 22:44

Kooba, look at the OGA figures for November.11.9k bopd 29% water cut averaged over the month.That's why they switched on the ESP late November / early December.It clearly demonstrates water cut increasing rapidly on natural flow.

[kooba] 07/2/2021 22:14

Rather more interested in update on this promised early in first quarter.While no firm decisions have been taken, the Company has focussed on the location, operations planning and execution in 2021 of a new production well in the central "attic" high of the Lancaster field, by re-entering and side-tracking the existing 205/21a-7z well. This could add meaningfully to the production capacity from the existing 205/21a-6 well, accelerate production of existing reserves, and, depending on oil price, materially improve near-term cashflow generation. Development costs are currently estimated at c.$60 million. Subject to a sanction decision early in the first quarter of 2021 and securing a suitable rig and equipment, first production from this well should be possible by late 2021.

[kooba] 07/2/2021 22:12

Lancaster EPS Production Update Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Current Oil Production (MMbbls) 1.25 1.17 N/A -------- -------- ------- Average Oil Rate (bopd) 13,600 12,700 12,100 -------- -------- ------- Water Cut(2) 26% 25% 25% -------- -------- ------- Does this show increasing water cut ?A drop in production yes as announced they choked production back to current levels, and i reckon production could fall a bit further over the year .

[fat frank] 07/2/2021 22:10

From HANNAM Report dated 14.01.2021

"Q4 production and water cut in line with guidance

Hurricane’s Q4’20 production averaged 12.7kbbl/d with a 25% water-cut. For the final 4 months of the year, production of 12.5kbbl/d was within the 12-14kbbl/d guidance range. The current production of 12.1kbbl/d and water cut of ~25% remains steady. The water production level is well within the handling capacity of the FPSO but the well production rate has been choked back to manage the reservoir and avoid water coning issues. In 2021, we expect production of 11kbbl/d, a moderate decline, which may be partially offset by a Q4 bump from the 205/21a-7z well re-entry."

So, ngms, do you dismiss this comprehensive report completely?

If so, on what grounds? Have you ever been wrong?

[ngms27] 07/2/2021 21:57

Kooba, the article to which you refer was the commissioning of the ESPs so of course they were tested...The RNS on 14/1/2021 stated:The Lancaster field continues to produce from the 205/21a-6 well alone, with current production of c. 12,100 bopd on artificial lift and a water cut of c.25%.The RNS on 18/12/2020 stated:The 205/21a-6 well is currently producing at c.12,300 bopd on artificial lift with a c.23% water cut.So in 4 weeks on the ESP oil production has gone down 1.6% and water cut has increased 8.7%Remember this will be exponential growth of water cut and will eat into oil production. Will well 6 pass the commercial threshold in six months time?

[leoneobull] 07/2/2021 21:14

Pro takes sad man 2020 award for posting something negative on the HUR BB about the oil price on CHRISTMAS DAY, despite not holding. The oil price has since risen to 59.50 USD. ....will leave everyone to figure put motivations..

[kooba] 07/2/2021 20:36

https://www.ogj.com/drilling-production/article/14180393/hurricane-energy-completes-esp-program-in-lancaster-eps"Well 205/21a-6 has returned to natural flow while the 205/21a-7z well will continue being produced using an ESP."Pumps were being used on project long before water cut was recognised as a problem, this article mentions well 6 returning to natural flow, can you just point me to the release showing ESPs being used again on this producing well. I can then look closer into their use.

[kooba] 07/2/2021 20:10

So you have no idea about the ESP type or useage..but are prepared without any information to support to say projections on the basis of information from the company are false. I was merely extrapolating from latest company RNSs and the oil price...is the rise in brent false too?? Your reason for such posting on this counter when not a holder is interesting. I find often when folks have taken a nasty cut they want nothing more than the company they have exited to fail. I tend to move on when I've made a mistake.

[ngms27] 07/2/2021 20:05

Yep HURs on my favourites on ADVFN

[leoneobull] 07/2/2021 19:44

"Your conclusions are false" says sad man who doesn't hold, yet follows the Hur BB 7 days a week and said we would be subeconomic by end 2020. Next!!

[ngms27] 07/2/2021 19:24

Yes it was the GameStop brigade lol.

[ngms27] 07/2/2021 19:23

You haven't accounted for the ESP use so your conclusions are false.

[ngms27] 07/2/2021 19:22

Leoneobull, I know that stuff. However there are multiple types of ESPs what I want to find out is the manufacturer and version along with the specifications.

[kooba] 07/2/2021 18:41

Just re checking last update , third Q water cut 26% forth quarter 25% reflecting choking back production shown in reduced average production. However current (early Jan) water cut at 25% on production levels of 12,100 bbpd showing stability.Now since the mention of thresholds in Dec brent has rallied 25% ..when costs have remained static I guess giving a significant uplift in margins, which will also result in incremental decrease in profitable threshold I imagine and will mean the company will be throwing off increased cash even at reduced flow rates.Even if we say production costs $30 (probably high) then they were making $18 per barrel early Dec , now making close to $30 per barrel with Brent nudging $60 with stability in production (or gradual decline to say 11,000 this year on knowns )and water cut manageable from information the company has given , the picture is not all bleak..and quite promising for bondholders!So we keep pumping cash out of the ground and await mitigation and funding proposals, just hope the company remembers that shareholders from the start put up the risk capital and should be given very fair consideration in what happens next.

[leoneobull] 07/2/2021 18:26

This should also help...Https://www.pumpsandsystems.com/electric-submersible-pumps-oil-and-gas-industry

[leoneobull] 07/2/2021 18:24

Article on ESPs.Http://oilproduction.net/esp-electric-submersible-pumps/item/3695-extending-electric-submersible-pump-esp-runlife

[leoneobull] 07/2/2021 18:20

Ngms. Any idea who bought 6 million Friday?

[ngms27] 07/2/2021 16:57

Pro, both are correct. It's the semantics.

Essentially well 6 is finished on natural flow due to massive increase of water cut during November.

The question is how long will the ESP keep the oil produced above the commercial threshold?

In the mean time the reservoir is approaching bubble point and water will continue to increase reducing oil produced. If they pump harder then they bring forward the day of reckoning and bubble point.

In my opinion HUR are now between a rock and a hard place as any intervention is likely too late.

[pro_s2009] 07/2/2021 14:33

If the OGA figures are different to the HUR RNS stated figures, then the OGA data needs to be sent off to the Market Regulation team for them to contact the company for comment/clarification.

RNS are legal documents and what is said in them is subject to rules and law.

[jotoha2] 07/2/2021 13:42

20P Wow now that is some target within 6 months , am sure CA will want at least 30p , greed /fear wonder which will win here , let it be greed , lth deserve some good news here.

[tournesol] 07/2/2021 13:24

20 p in next 6 months

never mind the market cap, what about the share price?

[1joo] 07/2/2021 12:45

20 p in next 6 months

[ngms27] 07/2/2021 12:41

So you are calling the OGA liars?Production was 11.9k bopd with 29% water cut in November end of.It got so bad they had to switch on the ESP. I've been told ESPs usually aren't used unless water cut on natural flow is circa 40 to 50%. More research required here though to be 100% confident.Perhaps Leoneobull should re-read the RNS especially the bit where the word 'average' is used.If this behaves as 7z then in a few short months commercial production is over from well 6. That's the real risk anyone investing at this point should consider.

[leoneobull] 07/2/2021 09:32

This should help NGMS...perhaps read the RNS rather than try to misinterpret and mislead ?Lancaster Production UpdateSince the Company's last update on 8 October 2020, the Lancaster field has continued to produce from the 205/21a-6 well alone, except for a short period of testing the 205/21a-7z well to assist in the refinement of the Lancaster reservoir simulation model.The 205/21a-6 well is currently producing at c.12,300 bopd on artificial lift with a c.23% water cut. In early November 2020, the Company decided to limit production to approximately 12,000 bopd for reservoir evaluation and management purposes and aims to maintain production around this level in the near-term.Since 1 September 2020, the Lancaster field has averaged 12,500 bopd and as a result, the Company expects production for the period 1 September 2020 to 31 December 2020 to be within the previously announced 12,000 - 14,000 bopd guidance range.

[ngms27] 07/2/2021 09:10

So 8th October 14.5k bopd 19% water cut18th December 12.3k bopd 23% water cut on ESPBut the OGA say November averaged 11.9k bopd with 29% water cut So it's clear water cut has increased dramatically on natural flow, probably above 40% as ESPs are designed to be used with high water cut.All this means is that well 6 is following a similar trajectory to well 7z and decline will continue to be exponential.