Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[gisjob2] 07/1/2020 10:55

Ngms27,

If you don't mind I'll choose to trust Dr T's explanation rather than your finger in the air guesswork.

[amaretto1] 07/1/2020 10:51

Please explain the temperature quote ... what can been seen to make him so confident ?

[ngms27] 07/1/2020 10:43

Any water, read the CPR and technical papers from Dr T 2016 onwards after well 6.It's absolutely clear ANY water was unexpected in the EPS and hasn't been taken into account in the models used for the CPR and EPS.The reason being well connected fractures DONT leave stranded / perched water and aquifer water is more likely.Remember well 4 was stated as perched then changed to aquifer two years later. Dr Ts reasons for the water being perched are straight from a 2015 research paper that makes certain assumptions that may or may not be correct. It also states coning is more likely early in production if there are large vertical fractures and they have more prominence over horizontal fractures. Guess what HUR have.HUR previously tried to sample and test the aquifer but failed. Thus they are missing an important dataset.That's why to me the juries still out.

[gisjob2] 07/1/2020 10:33

Ngms, water breakthrough ? You mean perched water.

[idleduck] 07/1/2020 10:33

This is a very good and up-to-date paper.What distinguishes this company from so many other upstream juniors is the fantastic grip that its CEO has on the complexities of hunting for and securing the prize.

[tournesol] 07/1/2020 10:28

NGMS

Risk of ruin is materially higher than 3 months ago.

If you don't bet the farm then you do not take the risk of being ruined.

What's wrong here is your insistence that there is a binary choice between a farm bet and a zero bet.

The right strategy, IMHO, is a correctly sized bet. In my case I have 16% of my portfolio invested in HUR. If your prognostications come good and water breaks through and the shares become worthless I'll be disappointed but not ruined. If the best case comes good and the shares double, treble or more, I'll be delighted. IMHO there is a better chance of my ending up smiling than crying.

[ngms27] 07/1/2020 10:16

I suggest you read the CPR and the two main risks associated with the EPS. One is water that wasn't considered and would have to be addressed if it were to happen. Quell surprise it's happened and will impact the model so all bets are off.It's my opinion with the latest drill campaign, the reduced work and unexpected water breakthrough that risk has increased and reward materially lower. That's why I'm out and glad of it. Risk of ruin is materially higher than 3 months ago.

[excell1] 07/1/2020 10:14

A common sense post tournesol among all the traders dross that has been posted lately on here.Be nice to see the 20,000 barrels of oil a day going through and at very good poo prices too.

[wessexmario] 07/1/2020 10:14

"The market is a voting machine".
It doesn't mean that the voters are always correct.

[amaretto1] 07/1/2020 10:14

Who i might add... as been consistently right on the direction of share price

[amaretto1] 07/1/2020 10:13

Odviously it was me.

[telbap] 07/1/2020 10:12

So you do not know to whom I refer, and yet still call me a fool?No words for that.

[m5] 07/1/2020 09:58

tournesol7 Jan '20 - 09:30 - 7501 of 7503

Very fair post. Buy low sell high. To me this is now coming well into a buying area again, but I will look to trade for a 10-15% return.

[amaretto1] 07/1/2020 09:43

What u talking about ? U fool ..

[telbap] 07/1/2020 09:37

Is it not amazing what crawls out every time we hit a down cycle.....this is what it is, how many times have we seen the same action now?

[amaretto1] 07/1/2020 09:29

It's going to test 29 ! Breaks ... 25

[amaretto1] 07/1/2020 09:15

PMO have made some cracking deals in the past ... there last one years ago off EON saved them from folding.This one is company changing again.Gives confidence to the NS Durrant is a smart cookie, say all u want.. normally ahead of the curve.

[dcarn] 07/1/2020 09:05

Depends where BP is planning to spend its war chest.