Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ngms27] 06/1/2020 08:31

I'm not categorically stating 7z is coning, what I am saying is some of the released news doesn't tally up in my mind. I could easily be wrong.s_murray has raised some interesting points. However some don't compute to me.The initial water cut on 7z may well have occurred after 6 hours and was almost certainly perched water. What I cannot get my head round are these pieces that to me don't correlate with hard data in the RNS releases.1) Bottom hole pressure has hardly been affected. Question why has 7z oil production materially dropped then? 2) The two well bores effectively behave as one.Question why has 7z productivity plummeted in comparison?3) The 7z water cut has increased from 8% to 25/30% but isn't rate dependent.Question why has water cut materially increased then? Question if they hit faults/fractures in the well bore containing perched water why isn't the water cut going down with production?

[amaretto1] 06/1/2020 08:28

Mkt picked up on it ?

[hazydaisy] 06/1/2020 08:16

Hurricane Energy’s exploration adventure offshore UK is the most exciting of them all, in my view.

[stepone68] 06/1/2020 08:15

Maybe long term shanklin but right now EPS performance is all that matters

[shanklin] 06/1/2020 07:23

The spot price is irrelevant but a permanent upward shift in the forward curve would be highly relevant. Minor participants may be interested in de-escalation but not too sure that is what we will see from Trump and Iran.

[stepone68] 06/1/2020 06:10

Brent price is almost entirely irrelevant.

[sji] 06/1/2020 05:07

Brent currently at $70.46. This should be a positive for HUR or no?!

[thegreatgeraldo] 06/1/2020 00:35

& if someone's pushing the coning theory, they need to offer an explanation as to why well 6 is dry

[ngms27] 06/1/2020 00:26

Agreed, the BoD need to put up a decent technical explanation as to why the water cut on 7z is beyond the reservoir modelling.

[steelwatch] 06/1/2020 00:21

s_murray - clearly you understand much more than I 🤓

[thegreatgeraldo] 06/1/2020 00:16

I had a lucky escape....was sorely tempted to start opening a position ahead of the Warwick West result, in the mid-40's. I'd still like to know what the problem was at Warwick West.

[thegreatgeraldo] 05/1/2020 23:57

Why did Kerogen reduce their exposure?

....No idea

Who thinks this is all a game by the “in the know” people to get your shares

...Grow up! How many shares do these folk "in the know" want? The company dished out over 700 million @32p a couple of years ago

What event in the foreseeable future will move the share price back 100% to where it was.

....Spirit selling out to a major who commit to peppering Lancaster, Lincoln & Halifax during a 2 year drilling campaign

[lunanlodge] 05/1/2020 23:45

Thank you thegreatgeraldo. I will put that in the negative column if that’s ok

Four to go

[thegreatgeraldo] 05/1/2020 23:36

lunanlodge
5 Jan '20 - 23:28 - 7355 of 7355
0 0 0
Putting all the technical arguments to one side I have a couple of simple questions.
Why has share price dropped 50% from high?

Warwick Deep was a bit of a shocker (in my book), then the shameless pump operation just ahead of the Warwick West result suckered in credit punters & obv failed to deliver.....those 2 results raised a few questions over future drilling plans & will test Spirit's resolve?

[lunanlodge] 05/1/2020 23:28

Putting all the technical arguments to one side I have a couple of simple questions.
Why has share price dropped 50% from high?
Why did Kerogen reduce their exposure?
Who thinks this is all a game by the “in the know” people to get your shares
What event in the foreseeable future will move the share price back 100% to where it was.
I am in up to my neck here so if you have a positive spin on the above please let me know
Thank you

[s_murray] 05/1/2020 23:12

Steelwatch

It is actually a hard question, water is 1 sg if no salts and no viscosity, oil lighter about 0.85 sg maybe r less but has a viscosity, so pulling through both what will produce more, that is hard question IMO.
But as the CMD says Drawdown is too low to lift water from the aquifer. Far to low. and he states impossible after 6 hour.

So to lift the water through an oil column as suggested by some is not possible.

[thegreatgeraldo] 05/1/2020 23:09

Given they've pulled a touch over 3 million bbls out so far, maintaining BHP can only be good news, imvh. Maybe ngms has a point about 7Z tapping an area of low permeability though...... AIUI, water moves more freely thru a reservoir relative to oil, which may partly explain increased water production? Pure speculation, of course!

[s_murray] 05/1/2020 23:02

TGG,

Good question since they are so close and acting as a single well.

I can't answer that????

Maybe in CMD in March.

By the way what do you think about the BHP observed thus far?

[steelwatch] 05/1/2020 22:59

Simple theory: 7z passes through the bottom of a pocket of perched water to oil beyond. As oil is recovered, some of it escapes into the water pocket rising to the top and displacing the water gradually down into the well bore where it co-mingles and is recovered to surface. How long this displacement lasts depends on how much perched water was trapped. Is there a case to argue that the greater the volume of oil accumulating at the top of the water trap, the more the weight of that accumulation increases the water displacement? Sooner or later most, or all, of the water is expelled?

[thegreatgeraldo] 05/1/2020 22:23

Simple question for the coning fans - given what we know about the 2 wells - why is one wet & t'other dry?

[sloppyg] 05/1/2020 22:22

7z water cut going from 8% to 25% is clearly a material change in a relatively short window.

However the BOD publicly state they consider it to still be perched in nature; this would be a gross misrepresentation of the facts if behind the scenes they suspected otherwise. They would for sure be far less committal in their comms in order to buy time to evaluate more fully if there was reasonable doubt.

All this being said I accept we are still short of a decent explanation.....

[s_murray] 05/1/2020 22:20

I also recommend listening from 1h28 50sec summary slides.

and from 1.35min interesting.

Future updates. 1.36.30 about bottom hole pressures with a compared to the simulation. bottom case, middle case or high case.

so update in 13th Dec stated about BHP.

"Notwithstanding the instant communication between the two wells, and that the wells are effectively acting as a single well bore, the bottom hole pressure response observed to date gives the Company sufficient confidence to reiterate 2020 guidance of 20,000 barrels of oil per day"

So one of the key parmiters is BHP. and they have confidence that the 2020 guidance of 20,000 bbls oil per day.

Another tick in the box in my opinion...

[amaretto1] 05/1/2020 20:19

US Embassy been in Baghdad .. been rocket attacked !!