Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[gary38] 06/12/2018 09:12

All these issues are only the concern off day traders,the only concern here for long term investors is the value of commercial oil flow without any major concerns.DYOR.

[fatnacker] 06/12/2018 09:09

I'm not having a go at spread betting, its useful in the right situation.

[bocase] 06/12/2018 09:02

Good points made by Snowcameron and Fatnacker.

None of these short term events really have much bearing on what we should all be here for. ie the take out price at a multiple of where we are now.

[bocase] 06/12/2018 08:59

Blueclyde:

I think we will get an RNS soon enough when AM leaves for, or arrives in Shetland. What we need is a shot in the arm from OPEC and less of the bad news from America, eg today the CFO of Huawei being locked up by the US. A bit like Tim Cook being locked up by the Chinese which is threatening to totally de-rail the US/China trade talks and slow the global economy and demand for oil.

[fatnacker] 06/12/2018 08:55

You spread betting blueclyde?

[snowcameron] 06/12/2018 08:54

https://www.samaritans.org/how-we-can-help-you/contact-us

[blueclyde] 06/12/2018 08:49

An urgent RNS required for operations update as the last RNS states the AM is broken down in the Med. Also there are magazine quotes saying a week or so in Rotterdam which is now two weeks tomorrow. Anyone got a contact at the company they can reach out to before we get destroyed?

[lfdkmp] 06/12/2018 08:45

hiddendepths

Thank you, very informative and expressed in a way that this non-oiler could understand.

I hope you will be willing next year to give us an update of your perception of the quality of the oil when we get to something approximating steady state.

[bocase] 06/12/2018 08:31

Hidden depths: Very interesting. Thank you for that. We live and learn.

[altom] 06/12/2018 08:29

The last date I remember “not before 15th Dec.” Someone else May know better.

[hiddendepths] 06/12/2018 08:25

I don't know if anyone's interested but here's a snapshot of some of the refining issues.

As far as oil quality goes, this is assessed by detailed laboratory assays of samples of the crude before any crude is processed in a refinery. It is important to have an accurate analysis of the quality for the refining process:- After being left in storage for a while so that the water content can settle out, crude is distilled in a crude distillation unit (CDU) into its major components (such as butane, straight run benzene, straight run gasoline, naphtha, middle distillates and residue) which are then piped off for further processing through catalytic reformers, hydrofiners, catalytic crackers and so on. When the components have been fully processed, they are then blended with many other components into final products which have to meet hundreds of precise specifications, with several of these being absolutely critical.

Refineries have to know exactly what qualities the components have in order to be able to blend the final products to specification. So a precise assay of a crude oil is very important. For a new field, the quality of the crude is initially somewhat variable and the assays have to be repeated fairly frequently. So new crudes are initially treated with caution by refineries until the oil quality has settled down and the properties are known and understood - sometimes refiners get surprises as blends do not always behave as expected (blending is an art form, and highly skilled!).

It wouldn't be surprising if the Lancaster crude is initially taken to several refineries so that they can learn more about it and plan how to use it efficiently in future. While the API measure of the lightness of the crude can provide a rough valuation of its relative value against a benchmark such as Brent, the qualities of the components will give a more accurate assessment of the crude's worth. For instance, some crude oils, such as Kuwait, provide feedstock for catalytic reformers which have a yield of high grade gasoline (petrol) component all of 15% higher than that from some other crudes. So Kuwait crude has a value some way above what one might expect from its gravity alone. Other, heavy, crude oils when passed through a CDU produce a very high proportion of "waxy distillate" which can be processed through a catalytic cracker into an exceptionally high proportion of high value gas oil (diesel) and gasoline components and very little low value "vacuum residue." These crudes also command a premium despite being heavy. Other crude oils passed through a CDU produce an excessive amount of a component, meaning that throughput of that crude has to be much slower than normal, reducing the refinery's capacity as it is being processed. Such crudes trade a a discount to expectation.

Refining is very complex and crude oil valuation is not obvious. It'll be interesting to see what premium or discount to Brent Lancaster will command. We won't really know until around the middle of next year when it settles down.

[fatnacker] 06/12/2018 08:23

Lfd, Llantwit

[francis55] 06/12/2018 08:16

What date is the ship due to set sail for WoS?

[lfdkmp] 06/12/2018 07:49

fatnacker

Rest Bay- Porthcawl

[fatnacker] 06/12/2018 07:43

As far as the weather goes it's entirely pot luck if there's a weather window this side of Xmas, realistically.

[fatnacker] 06/12/2018 07:39

Bocase I surfed as a kid on the beaches of south Wales also about 45 year ago, great place to be kid.

[steve73] 06/12/2018 07:25

Euroclear data for Stock-on-loan for Nov has just been released.
Shows monthly averages have dropped from 7.44% in Sept, to 7.02% in Oct, to 6.13% in Nov.
This suggests that much of the recent fall has been due to selling rather than shorting. Disclosed shorts have been up an down a little over this period though and are currently at 2.54%, up from 2.33% at oct 1st.

[bocase] 06/12/2018 07:21

Fatnacker:

I agree a 20km/hr wind does not generate swells but swells travel and a deep depression 500 miles away can cause large swells in an area where the wind is calm so there is more than just the local weather to be considered. I am sure a perfect weather window will come along but we might need to be patient.

I remember surfing in huge swells on the Sydney beaches in weather with zero wind due to a cyclone hitting the northern Queensland coast around Cairns. That was 45 years ago I must add.

Of more immediate concern is today's OPEC meeting in Vienna. We could do with a production cut and another $10 pb on the oil price

[fatnacker] 06/12/2018 06:57

Bocase 20kph is a gentle breeze, you won't get a swell off that.

[davidblack] 05/12/2018 23:59

BP et al I am sure have no issue finding out the output but my guess is an easier way would be to ring Dr on his mobile who would happily tell them all they want to know.

In the end they are his second JV deal testing the water ahead of an agreed buyout for stock at £10 a share [ok I might be optimistic there £9.50 would do?]

[gibso6767] 05/12/2018 21:54

HH , yes I posted similar on lse site a few days ago intimidating the same and if a specific refinery was fine tuned for this oils api etc

[hopeful holder] 05/12/2018 21:33

Gives BP a great opportunity to run any oil analysis they.need to in order to assess the oil quality first hand...

[gibso6767] 05/12/2018 20:33

So for argument sake , we are producing at ‘A Rate ‘ a Tanker then turns up , I know BP have an Option to buy , but where will First Oil be going to ie refinery and whom may purchase it

[bocase] 05/12/2018 20:29

No real weather window yet. (see windspeed column) We are looking for less than 20km/h and then of course the swell depends on wind direction and other factors.



Just need to be a little patient.