Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[leoneobull] 20/11/2018 18:39

The Saudis will do anything trump wants to save bin Salman frankly

[the guardian] 20/11/2018 18:39

pefab, yes it's crazy. Those wells will lose almost half of their production in the first year.

Take a look at this, it's four months old but you get the picture.

hxxps://srsroccoreport.com/top-u-s-shale-oil-fields-decline-rate-reaches-new-record-half-million-barrels-per-day/

[davidblack] 20/11/2018 17:59

Whilst the Saudis clearly want and need higher prices for their oil they probably are getting some comfort from the fact that sudden drops in price keep at bay some projects that now need to be financed with a downside price $10-$15 lower than bankers were willing to fund a few months ago.

As to the sudden rising in US oil I think some of that is coming from gas liquids from wells drilled a couple of years ago which could not be completed because of full pipelines. With a lot of gas being exported, going to Mexico and some more pipelines in place a lot of latent production came on stream quickly. Hopefully that will not reoccur.

[prefab] 20/11/2018 17:54

The Guardian: Further to your post yesterday re:shale.



I read a snippet earlier that asserted Pioneer had spent $1.5bn on 130 wells to add 10kbpd overall of shale production in 2018, astounding but it only goes to further illustrate the decline rate of those existing shale wells. So now they are competing with not just declining wells but poorer less productive prospects to replace them with which are getting increasingly expensive to put into production.

And of course a declining oil price right now.

[bountyhunter] 20/11/2018 16:51

Yes I expect they will given the recent significant decline in the oil price given that Iran is producing more post Nov 5 than had been anticipated.

[gary38] 20/11/2018 16:47

We have been Trumped.Lets hope that the Saudis cut output at the next OPEC meeting on the 6th ,which would lift oil prices for H1 2019 just in time for FOIL

[bocase] 20/11/2018 16:41

Bounty Hunter:

Yes when you allow for the different timescales on the x axis, they are more or less identical. I remember a poster on here last week telling me that there was no correlation. The big question of course is how the US, Russian and Opec games will play out. Longer term I think oil prices can only rise as we are dealing with a scarce resource.

[davidblack] 20/11/2018 16:40

Add in an unhappy Dow to the mix too!

[bountyhunter] 20/11/2018 16:28

You're welcome, x-axis not quite matching but you get the picture. Similar with many other O&G stocks

[bocase] 20/11/2018 16:20

Bountyhunter:

Yes indeed. A very close correlation. Thank you for posting those.

[bountyhunter] 20/11/2018 15:55

Yes bocase, that's probably what's been driving the recent decline here...

[the guardian] 20/11/2018 15:54

Oil price was doing OK until the US market opened.

[bocase] 20/11/2018 15:53

..that said the oil price move today is not pretty!

It certainly is not pretty, down 4.5% today. Tullow Oil down 4.5%, Shell down nearly 2% for example so HUR is holding up pretty well which bodes well for the share price of HUR when the oil price recovers, as it surely will.

[bountyhunter] 20/11/2018 15:52

Oh I see, I was looking back over more than just the last 9 days, but if it's down a bit from the high at least it's moving in the right direction. Agree about the oil price, a cold winter might change that but not much cold weather yet!

[homebrewruss] 20/11/2018 15:39

It's down from the Nov 11th high which is what I was talking about.
Guess it's too early to say if this is the start of a downtrend but with FOIL soon you might imagine so.

..that said the oil price move today is not pretty!

[bountyhunter] 20/11/2018 15:34

so why is that not the case right now on the shorttracker chart in the link above?

[homebrewruss] 20/11/2018 14:57

bountyhunter, shorts have come down recently if you search the thread there are some details further back.

[bountyhunter] 20/11/2018 14:48

Shorting here quite high right now looking at the chart...

[hiddendepths] 20/11/2018 14:42

xxnjr1 - all tallies with my understanding of what's going on, I'm glad to say!

[extrader] 20/11/2018 12:23

Hi Rayrac,

Interesting read. What isn't clear is how Wall Street expects this to unwind, without the banks losing money on the loans that the article suggests won't be repaid...

I 'get' the 'privatise the profits/bonuses, socialize the losses' argument ie get the taxpayer to bail out the banks, but not clear that'll work this time round.

Now if it were bondholders, under facilities arranged by the banks for fat fees, that were expected to face the music, that would be different.

But it isn't : it looks as though the banks (shareholders) will lose money. Something doesn't add up for me - or hasn't been explained to this bear of little brain.

ATB

[katiegos] 20/11/2018 12:15

Thanks TG for that info looking forward to those numbers
reducing the nearer we get to hook up

[rayrac] 20/11/2018 12:05

Yes, thanks xxnjr.

Spitting distance of production. Should be moving north anytime!

[the guardian] 20/11/2018 12:04

Short disclosures

Marshall Wace LLP........................... 0.70% ...........2018-11-14
Och-Ziff Management Europe Ltd.... 0.65% ...........2018-11-12
Polygon Global Partners LLP........... 1.09% ............2018-11-14

Total 2.44%

[geordy2] 20/11/2018 11:43

xxnjr1

Thanks, very informative

G2