Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr1] 20/11/2018 11:32

Here's a recent, and up to date, snap shot on L48 shale, if anyone is interested.

[xxnjr1] 20/11/2018 08:56

Off topic - the decline curve of shale isn't really an issue, as there's an economic case for investing in shale. ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, RDSB, even late comer BP, have been investing zillions in L48 shale, as in their compete for capital asset portfolios, shale is extremely competitive. Anadarko was arguably the best mid-cap conventional deep water explorer - yet it has chosen to transform itself into a shale biased player, rather than concentrating on an existing competitive advantage versus peers, in deep water exploration. Lets see what APC are up to these days



2019 CAPITAL PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS

70 percent of investments are directed toward scalable, oil-levered U.S. onshore assets [i.e. shale!!!]
$50 oil and $3 natural gas environment investment case
~$1.6 billion adjusted free cash flow expected at $60 WTI, $70 Brent, and $3 HH(2)
10 percent growth in oil sales volume(3)
15 percent or greater growth in oil sales volume per debt-adjusted share(3)(4)
FOCUSED ON SHAREHOLDER RETURNS

$1 billion addition to share-repurchase program, now totaling $5 billion
20-percent increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.30 per share, a 500-percent increase during 2018
$500 million increase to debt-reduction program, now totaling $2 billion

Seems to be doing rather better than Premier Oil and Tullow Oil!

If we learnt anything from the last oil price crash it was surely that shale is a resilient resource.



If the OP dropped back to say $35/bbl, looks like shale would drop about 1m bopd, then bounce back strongly. No problem if over leveraged shale players go bust, as their distressed assets will be picked up by stronger players.

[gary38] 20/11/2018 08:02

AM making good headway and soon will be off the French coast.

[kirtonender9] 20/11/2018 07:54

The worst seas I encountered whilst in the Merchant Navy were in the Northern Pacific. In fact I was on one of the sister ships to the Derbyshire which sank in 1980 with loss of 44 lives in the same location when we approached a typhoon so turned round to avoid it. Bay of Biscay can be bad as can the coast of Portugal but Pacific is worse.

[davidblack] 19/11/2018 22:59

No sorry I was not looking to be critical, you are right but thankfully not right for Hurricane.

Also it allowed me to point out we get an extra buck for our oil, I think many people would not be aware of that. And that extra buck is a big upside on the profits assuming costs run at $35 a barrel?

A nice friendly extra 3.1% before taxes (apologies, I’m an accountant!).

The conversation above about fracked oil rich gas is interesting. Maybe this recent $10 drop in oil will get Wall Street worried by its loans to the frack industry. If so that could be a nice bump on oil prices given the fracked well decline curve.

[miln] 19/11/2018 22:32

tom111 and DavidblackMy apologies

[davidblack] 19/11/2018 22:24

WTI $57
Brent $67

Oil from GLA apparently should be worth about $1 more than Brent according to Dr T

[tom111] 19/11/2018 20:07

Just bought in at 42p recently.I notice poo just jumped to $67 suddenly tonight,could be a better day tomorrow

[blueclyde] 19/11/2018 19:56

I found the following from the energy voice article very interesting. They are digging in and getting ready to unlock the the huge value that is hopefully there. None of this drill about for a few months then hope for a takeover. If someone know wants to buy our assets they better get ready to dig very deep. 70 odd staff now depend on this it won't be given away:Meanwhile, on terra firma, Hurricane has just relocated its Aberdeen operation to Consort House where there is capacity for a headcount of around 70, including a team from Petrofac which is being implanted to plan and run Hurricane's next West of Shetland exploration and appraisal programme.The company has also expanded its Godalming HQ in Surrey.

[prefab] 19/11/2018 18:37

TG if you look at the maturity dates on the debt across lenders then 2020-2021 will be crunch time for a few. Another slump in POO could hasten it for some if the debt market tightens, it's just one massive ponzi but it's hard to say when the music will stop. I'd also read an article a while ago about Continentals inability to even service it's debt interest at record production rates but that seems to have gone largely ignored. They are going to have to drill those 400 wells just to even come close to maintaining output as most on here are aware of depletion rates associated with these wells. This is potentially the next crash awaiting Wall St which perversely will probably send oil sky high as you say (unless Venezuela finds some sort of stability to mitigate the production shortfall). I remember shale commentators in 2016 proclaiming that due to efficiencies the break even for many producers was getting as low as $40pb, 2017-2018 has show that to be horsehit as most still can't break even or service debt at these prices. IMHO

[telbap] 19/11/2018 17:16

Steve.....Just in time for by birthday. We could well be waiting until mid year for something approaching true value, it's a very very slow process.Good, gives me a chance to buy some more early next year before they see true value.

[anley] 19/11/2018 17:04

I have seen another brokers report on USA Shale and its a reason why you wont be getting too many Yanks buying into HUR...just yet. See my last post.

[2kally] 19/11/2018 16:45

Fascinating read and so true, which proves that greed will often win over common sense, which is really sad.

[the guardian] 19/11/2018 16:08

An interesting article below. How long before US shale drillers go bust and the price of oil soars?

hxxps://en.reseauinternational.net/how-wall-street-enabled-the-fracking-revolution-thats-losing-billions/

[gary38] 19/11/2018 15:20

September 5% October. 4.8%

[anley] 19/11/2018 15:17

Thank you to all those shop followers.......I really like looking at those charts and its helpful as well.

[anley] 19/11/2018 15:16

I read posts that are fearful that the price will dip to 40p. Well its nearly there and if some would like to look at some of my recent posts I did warn that is where it could land up.

Looking at the 3 year chart it seems to me that there are not a great deal of shareholders who have made money on HUR. So at the current price this is a good place to have a close look and ask yourself the big question.........is under 40p still the price I would buy?

The Yanks are not buyers of HUR and as I have already mentioed in a post they will not come in until Morgan Stanley give an update in 2019........after the hook-up - when the stuff starts to flow and we have a leak to say its all working.......50p by then!!

[steve73] 19/11/2018 15:07

David - my guess would be around 8-10 weeks to first oil.. they might shave a couple off this as it's a relatively simply process train... or it could take twice as long.

BTW - "first oil" won't be exported for another 2 months or so. They'll be starting with just one well to 10k, then bringing the 2nd well on-stream no sooner than at least a few weeks later. Ramping up to design rate (20kbopd) over a 2-3 month period. Even at 20kbopd. it'll take at least 25-30 days for a full load, so much longer for the first load, although they'll probably load out the first one a week or so early just in-case there are any teething problems.
So first offload probably around mid-late April at best.

[dcarn] 19/11/2018 15:00

Thanks Korvet, nice read.

[gary38] 19/11/2018 15:00

Trader RB of CA still reducing his holding ,plus a basket of other short traders attacks here will very soon come to an end once they are over come with investors pouring in here very soon and trader RB and short traders will become history.

[davidblack] 19/11/2018 14:39

A question for “Oil Knowledgeables”;

The hook up seems to be a relatively simple mechanical coupling of the AZ to the buoy and production well which Dr Trice is expecting by Christmas.

What happens after that? And how long would it normally take before we get first oil.

Clearly there is a fair bit of work to do and it’s a lot more than “plugging it in and flicking a switch.”

Just curious.

[gary38] 19/11/2018 14:21

Most of the expertise required to enable Hurricane to graduate from an explorer to a producer is already on board.

[gary38] 19/11/2018 13:15

If all goes to plan,works completed within a week in Rotterdam,calm weather to WoS ,followed by good weather allowing hook up,this could all be done by 6-7th of December,thats 18/19 days time.