Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[the guardian] 11/6/2018 13:45

Nav of 81p per share is lower than I expected.

[damac] 11/6/2018 13:14

cont......


Focus shifting to EPS commissioning

Execution of Hurricane’s Lancaster EPS development appears to be progressing in line with management’s unchanged expectation of first oil in H119. We believe market focus in the coming months will shift to commissioning, data gathering and 2019 production expectations. Management guidance of gross 10kbod per well initial production rate implies low initial draw-down with potential production upside once data gathering objectives have been met. Our 2019 production expectations reflect an end-H119 first oil and slightly more modest 12-month production ramp-up than company guidance. A more aggressive view on first-oil delivery will have a modest positive impact on NAV, but of greater significance will be the data gathered by Hurricane once production has stabilised, which will shape Lancaster’s full field development.


Farm-in value on the rise

The recent rise in Brent crude increases the likelihood and value retained net to Hurricane in the event of a farm-out of its asset base. In our view, a farm-out on the back of supportive data from the Lancaster EPS seems a plausible scenario and Hurricane is keen to ensure that value is ascribed to the all of its Rona Ridge assets through continued appraisal of contingent and prospective resource. We continue to assume a development farm-out in our base valuation using a farminee 20% IRR.


Valuation: RENAV 81.0p/share

Our RENAV stands at 81.0p/share (up 3% from 78.4p/share) as we mark to market for EIA 2019 oil price assumptions and increase our EPS commercial chance of success from 90% to 100%. We continue to include 10% capex cost contingency, which we expect to release closer to first oil.

[mirabeau] 11/6/2018 10:28

-



Hurricane Energy
Enhanced EPS returns at current strip
11 June 2018 | Hurricane Energy, Oil & gas, Outlook

Download printable PDF



The development of Hurricane’s Lancaster early production system (EPS) remains on track for H119 first oil. We estimate a 1 January 2018 point-forward IRR of 63% for the EPS phase based on current commodity price forecasts. We use the EIA’s short-term oil forecast with Brent at $66/bbl for 2019 and long-term $70/bbl (from 2022). We believe the market is fully valuing a 10-year Lancaster EPS phase (34.7p/share net of debt), a project that has the potential to significantly de-risk our RENAV of 81.0p/share (increased from 78.4p/share). Our RENAV includes a risked value for Lancaster full field development and two mid-sized field developments (250mmbo) at Lincoln and Halifax.

cont...........pdf

[gary38] 11/6/2018 09:56

LaserLook forward to those posts.

[telbap] 11/6/2018 09:27

Laser........dont feed the trolls!!

[laserdisc] 11/6/2018 09:23

pg 23 current guidance

[fardistanthills] 11/6/2018 09:12

Surely HUR's main forward EPS costs must by now have been negotiated and be relatively fixed? What we want going forward is a stable and highish POO, and demand for good offshore assets?

[carcosa] 11/6/2018 09:09

gary, I have been invested since 2016...
Oil price $100... ha ha!

[gary38] 11/6/2018 08:27

CarcosaDoes that mean you will not be investing here.

[bocase] 11/6/2018 08:25

Carcosa:

I agree that costs will increase BUT if you read the article, the writer see oil at 100$ per barrel which will have a dramatic affect on the bottom line of HUR and therefore it's share price by far exceeding the increased costs of the oil services industry.

[carcosa] 11/6/2018 08:19

"Very positive for Hurricane Energy" Why?

Just means everything going forward becomes much more expensive for Hurricane along with diminished equipment availability. Hurricane were in the enviable position of doing much of there explo work at considerably cheaper rates; going forward (post EPS anyway) it is going to be very expensive. So I see this as a negative, not a positive.

[football] 10/6/2018 23:53

30 FREE oneplus coins here but running out fast so don't miss out!!!

[bocase] 10/6/2018 22:57

Very positive for Hurricane Energy



Particularly like this statement:

“It will soon be clear to the market that there’s a recovery also in offshore capital expenditure,” Westeren said. “We’ll then get a repricing of a lot of offshore-related investments, whether that’s bonds in large U.S. offshore drillers or equity in drillers, supply-vessel companies or subsea construction.”

[f1araway] 10/6/2018 18:33

I used Shareprice since its inception. Around 2 weeks ago I had a prompt to confirm my email address in order to have my research portfolio transferred into the iii system. Another prompt for the same last Monday and the Shareprice website was due to terminate on Friday. From that point on - nightmare! They don't recognise my ID or p/w & now they don't recognise my email address. Time wasted for the last time.

[puzzler2] 10/6/2018 12:34

iii site is unusable - I've been signed up since 1999, but won't now bother looking there again.

[gibso6767] 10/6/2018 12:20

Yes one poster has posted a ‘SOS’ for a response or rescue

[zztop] 10/6/2018 11:23

Yes its gon

[fireplace22] 10/6/2018 10:56

They probably used the same consultants Barclays used to develop Smart Investor!

[madmuppet] 10/6/2018 10:40

What the heck have they done to the iii bulletin board??!!

[bargainbob] 09/6/2018 18:19

The 5 Bob 5 coin links Qty 6 30 coins in total

[gibso6767] 09/6/2018 18:12

Ye Gods , I don’t post on iii but just watch and lurk , just visited the HUR Bulletin Board or I think I did .

It’s unreadable and navigates like ( insert own euphemism ).