Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[rayrac] 14/2/2017 16:20

Just added...has to be!

[bloodhound] 14/2/2017 15:49

"How does HUR raise $400m needed for the EPS? Dilution?"

Hi nicebut - I've pondered the very same Catch-22 myself as we all have I expect. AS making the 'audioBoom' call to Justin when it was fairly obvious he was in the US I took as(ok a pretty tenuous clue) that AS is talking to the 'Big Boys' state side and a FID as has been stated will be announced relatively soon.

My feeling is we'll do a farm-in on Lancaster on favourable terms which will be a huge success and as DrT has stated full field development isn't for HUR, so on the back of Lancaster we could well sell off our other assets or be taken out.

BH

[perfecthindsight] 14/2/2017 14:44

cashandcard

That is true, yes, and I'm certainly not disagreeing with HUR. I'm distinguishing between flat and level.

When they say flat they are describing how the OWC looks at Lancaster compared to the jellyfish model of oil/water contact they have described. I think that is more about connectivity and the ability of oil to displace any water above it. Combine that with no formation water found in the pilot drill and it is definitely a good thing and just adds to HUR's confidence about the connectedness of the reservoir.

My point is a flat OWC does not have to be stay absolutely level (at the same contour if you like) over long distances. If the fluid pressure environment at Lancaster is different to Halifax then the absolute level of OWC will respond to that. Variation in pressure 30kms along the ridge might mean the OWC is still flat but with a slight tilt in response to pressure.

When HUR talk about Halifax they say they ARE looking for "similar" results to Lancaster, not necessarily identical.

[nicebut] 14/2/2017 14:44

bloodhound,

Agree....but:

How does HUR raise $400m needed for the EPS? Dilution? Debt? See its bit Catch-22. It`s why I think the share price and everyone will do better if we get the farm-in now/soon- It`ll send the right message about what HUR have here. IMO

And agree wrt to a seller- Probably CA unloading into strength again. At least there are buyers around too.

[gary38] 14/2/2017 14:16

Volume up 850,000 shares brought in 30 mins.

[bloodhound] 14/2/2017 14:15

We've still got a seller, anyone else agree?

BH

[cashandcard] 14/2/2017 14:10

perfecthindsight,


Take your point re API varying from one part of the field to another. However OWC - as per recent RNS - is thought to be flat across the field. How likely is it that an extension would be tilted?

Yes, they did say they would drill outside local structural closure to test the FB megastructure theory for Lancaster/Halifax.

Of the most exciting aspects of this campaign is the oil-down-to and the water-cut (which was modelled at 50%) in 7z produced hardly any water!

.....cannot wait to see the revised CPR numbers. I think HUR and its team have been cautious, very very cautious.


Cash

[perfecthindsight] 14/2/2017 13:59

I also think HUR have said they will drill below the structural closure before the DST. Then if appropriate they would drill on to look for OWC.

[perfecthindsight] 14/2/2017 13:55

Separate point.

If Halifax and Lancaster are separate then that means Lancaster has a northern lateral seal which is currently unknown. I suspect that means the upcoming Lancaster CPR has to be bounded by the old block boundary (like the old CPR) rather than a whole view of a separate Lancaster field. Implies that even as a separate field Lancaster is likely to be bigger than the new CPR estimates.

[perfecthindsight] 14/2/2017 13:46

I agree the drill will at least start to answer if Lancaster & Halifax are one field.

Couple of points if it is one field. It is still possible for the API at Halifax to be a bit different to Lancaster - depends a lot on source and how the field filled among other things.

Secondly, the hydrocarbon/water pressure regime may not be the same across such a big field. That could mean the OWC is not identical at Halifax and Lancaster. The OWC may be tilted over 30+kms.

Not disagreeing with the caution, it will be a huge field if it comes in, just suggesting the drill results might need careful interpretation.

[garymegson] 14/2/2017 13:31

oilandgas, data room is already open.

[bloodhound] 14/2/2017 13:31

"Pure wishful thinking on your part. You have no idea what any major will do- nor do any of us. The way they manage risk there is still a very good chance that they won`t do anything but wait...Even if Halifax is a success."

Nicebut - Ok, HUR make a FID for the FPSO. Lancaster then flows as Dr T predicts "Lancaster should be a fantastic producer" we put the price up, significanly!

BH

[gary38] 14/2/2017 13:29

Getting very excited .

[leeson31] 14/2/2017 13:26

i reckon alastair stobie right now is speaking to a co. that knows it wants a bit!

[laserdisc] 14/2/2017 13:18

nicebut agreed I have no idea what any major will do, with the vast amounts of oil and information being produced it has to be a possibility that such an outcome could result

[thegreatgeraldo] 14/2/2017 13:10

Or P&A, of course! ;-#((

[soggy] 14/2/2017 13:08

Pounddreamer, oilandgas and others - many thanks. Sorry for being a lazy toad! I'm sure others will appreciate the helpful info. and hopefull wll also pile in - and help drive the rise!

I'm in for another wedge..can't resist this share, the ultimate story is just so compelling.

[thegreatgeraldo] 14/2/2017 13:08

You're a bit muddled with Halifax.... drill, test, then drill deeper....

[oilandgas1] 14/2/2017 13:05

Soggy.. news due and IMHO rough timeline

Feb: lincoln : flow test complete and still due more information on Lincoln,that in itself could add significant incremental value via tie-back to the Lancaster development hub
28Feb- 13mar: Halifax drilling completed?
Mar17: Data room open?
31Mar - 16apr: Halifax Flow test
31mar: Lancaster CPR
Apr17: Capex: debt , placing, Farm out
Capex and funding plans? Farm in? Sale?
Jul17: FPSO status update, Aoka Mizu for the Early Production System

[nicebut] 14/2/2017 13:02

laserdisc,

Pure wishful thinking on your part. You have no idea what any major will do- nor do any of us. The way they manage risk their is still a very good chance that they won`t do anything but wait...Even if Halifax is a success.

[kaos3] 14/2/2017 12:56

due to the chart I waited for the right moment and now I doubled my holding. there always was pre RNS buying and local higher highs and an all time high made my decision. all is underpinned by value. one way or the other will be extracted. I just need to be lucky as no one knows atm

[laserdisc] 14/2/2017 12:48

hur have significant amounts of oil which ever way the drill goes, if its continuous then the big oil companies will take note ,I feel they will put their fortunes in the form of an offer for hur rather than use their capital on exploration drills, AS going on about size etc that's what the big majors want, just a matter of being patient, I see little downside from here whichever way this goes.

[greyingsurfer] 14/2/2017 12:33

But it's wait for the drill. Can't fault that, but there does seem to be a view round here that it must be the case that they are continuous. That's clearly nonsense, that's why companies spend significant fortunes on exploration drills.Peter