Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[plat hunter] 17/2/2023 17:03

HUMRF up 30% now

[plat hunter] 17/2/2023 16:53

Something's going on, pasofino up 90% now since last Monday.

[zhockey] 17/2/2023 16:36

Dangers,

It’s pretty simple, the price actually went up briefly on the issue news. The reason for the fall is Ruffer selling down. If you have a holder offloading a 10% stake into volume then this is pretty understandable price action.

Some input from gold and short term momentum traders, but that’s the main reason.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/2/2023 15:29

A positive share price going into the weekend.. :o)Hopefully Ruffer have declared and finished selling, if they have been dripping their 20M into the market for months it is hardly a surprise the share price has been struggling with any upward momentum..The equity raise does grind the gears of a shareholder but it also makes sure we get Kouroussa into production which is more important and that 1st pour day is rapidly approaching now..Onward and upward for 2023...!

[borderterrier1] 17/2/2023 13:40

dangersimpson2 Good, well thought out post. But the part you missed out is the fact that perhaps nobody trusts a guy with zero previous mining experience and who displays narcissistic, nepotism and duplicity tendencies. Why would they?

[temujiin] 17/2/2023 13:38

Good post Dangers and all fair comment. HUM are defo in a better financial position than it looked last quarter, but regardless, if an II decides to sell literally millions of shares, even good news won't move the dial north. But it is a buying opportunity once selling has stopped, and assuming HUM continue to produce the gold at a reasonable AISC.

[dangersimpson2] 17/2/2023 12:13

The reaction to the news of the Q4 production and the placing seems a bit daft to me. I'm not sure I really expected them to hit their revised 2022 production guidance, given their history of missing these. And neither did the market, given that the shares have halved in the last six months or so.

So the Q4 production figures and positive EBITDA were undoubtedly good news. However, the update highlighted that they were cutting it fine on their debt financing, which for a company with a history of missing targets and a large amount of debt is particularly worrying.

I'm sure Betts & co wanted more debt, but Coris said they wanted equity. However, they were willing to pay pretty much the market price. This massively de-risks the company in the short term. Yet the price failed to react positively to the news. Usually this is because a placing means flippers who take stock int he placing and then sell in the market to lock in a risk-free profit. However, in this case, Coris are locked in and there is no stock to flip. Yet the share price dropped way below the placing price.

This doesn't make sense. Some people may point to the loss of upside due to dilution. However, the upside was never in question. If they can get Yanfolila and Kouroussa producing profitably, the share price should be 5-6x the current price, so cutting the top end via dilution to 4-5x really doesn't make any real difference. The issue was there was a large risk that something would go wrong in the short term, and shareholders would get nothing. The placing massively de-risks this outcome.

So why is the share price below the value at which Coris are happy to purchase a large amount of equity? Well, I think the placing acted as a final straw for some investors, and they sold in disgust at any price they could get. And I get this emotional response when someone feels let down. However, viewed with fresh eyes, the announcements this month have massively shifted the risk-reward in the favour of shareholders. Yet the price remains below where it was prior to these announcements. Hence, the current price seems a bit daft to me.

[plat hunter] 17/2/2023 10:15

Pasofino up 66% over the last 2 weeks

[plat hunter] 17/2/2023 09:22

What trend

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 17/2/2023 08:49

This one seems to be bucking the trend.

[creditcrunchies] 17/2/2023 08:17

The updated numbers of institutions invested in HUM has dropped dramatically from 28% of shares in the company to 19% since Friday. So it's mainly the owners and PIs owning this company now. So the owners should be fine on any deal on asset sales. Question is will the PIs.

[dickbush] 16/2/2023 15:20

Just to round off a bad run of the important numbers, the US PPI came in at 0.7% v the expected 0.4%. Both the headline and core inflation numbers y/y declined thanks to dropping out even bigger numbers a year ago, but markets are reacting solely to the m/m number.

[borderterrier1] 16/2/2023 13:27

More rats leaving the sinking ship.....

[dickbush] 16/2/2023 09:35

At these low prices even an initial 11% holding would have been pretty meaningless to Ruffer. So, I guess they have just shrugged their collective shoulders and decided to sell. I have no idea if recent developments may have changed their minds but I would tend towards them being sellers of the remaining, even less significant, shareholding, which will take a while.

[creditcrunchies] 16/2/2023 09:30

I think the problem isn't the profitability it's who gets it. The owners and the bank's not the shareholders that's probably why Ruffer dumped

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/2/2023 08:57

#PH, the volumes do stack up for delayed reporting, selling now would not make any sense at all now we are moving forward again, as #Charlieee comments the reasons could be anything, what is more important is CIG see an opportunity to increase value of their new shares..

We just need to focus on the future now, and that is looking a whole lot brighter.. :o)

[plat hunter] 16/2/2023 08:23

Bit of a coincidence though, 20 million dumped in one day followed by 4-5 days of circa 4 million a day spread over the next 4-5 weeks.

That chart I posted was the weekly, drill down into the daily volume and you can see the days that add up to circa 40 million imo

[charlieeee] 16/2/2023 08:13

Plat

They still had them per RNS at 3rd January.

The only assumption to be made is that they sold into the recent rise from 5p to 8p and will have capped that rise and will have let CIG in at a laughable share price

There could be all sorts of reasons for selling, including lack of corporate governance: DB as chairman and CEO is not what reputable institutions want to see.

Interestingly, they continually denied having any shares at the beginning of last year.

[johnhemming] 16/2/2023 08:07

It does look like delayed reporting.

[plat hunter] 16/2/2023 08:04

LLB, looks like they sold before the corner was turned, clear capitulation imo

[plat hunter] 16/2/2023 08:02

I suspect this was Ruffer selling..

20 million dumped, in one day at the back end of October...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/2/2023 07:36

A surprise to see Ruffer reduce by 50% just as we turn a corner, but for every seller there was a buyer..CIG clearly see an opportunity to increase the value of their new 10% position, with their T2 pending..

[creditcrunchies] 16/2/2023 00:13

They used to hold over 40 million shares end of last year. So it looks like half has been dumped. The other institutions just hold small percentages. Hum had pretty low institutional investment, end of 2022 it was 28% mainly Ruffer holding that. So the institutions have reduced dramatically.

[creditcrunchies] 16/2/2023 00:03

Wow they've dumped the lot they were the largest institutional investor.

[whitehunter] 15/2/2023 19:24

They look to have sold about 19m shares since the previous notification