Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[plat hunter] 10/2/2023 23:26

Just for fun Friday close.

Plat 9p
Tem 7.1

[plat hunter] 10/2/2023 23:25

AISC guidance on that 80-90 is sub 1500, so I reckon we can safely add another 200 sheets an ounce... 360 x 22,500 = 8.1 million 😀

[plat hunter] 10/2/2023 21:09

Next Friday closing price... just for fun

Plat - 9p

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/2/2023 17:32

The contractor (Wacom) for the Kouroussa plant build is on an incentive to complete early, some free shares IIRC although I am unable to find the RNS text, but we are told all is on schedule for 1st pour before June..

[edit] the WACOM contract is a lump sum fixed price, with penalties for late delivery. Additionally, to help ensure the project is delivered on time, the Company has agreed an incentive package consisting of a potential bonus of up to USD2.6M, consisting of a cash bonus of up to USD0.75M with the balance of up to USD1.85M (£1,395,000) payable through the issue of 6,342,857 new shares in Hummingbird Resources Plc at the agreed price of £0.22 per share, to be issued 12 months after expected delivery date (i.e., in first half
of 2024).

Pint O'clock here, let them get on with it.. :o)

[kinbasket] 10/2/2023 16:43

From the 2021 annual report my bold

New Coris Senior Loan Facility

On 4 November 2021, the Group’s subsidiary, Société des Mines de Komana SA (“SMK”) entered into a senior secured term debt facility with Coris Bank International (“Coris”) for CFA 38,500,000,000 (approximately $70,000,000 before any fees).

In December 2021, the full amount was drawn down. The debt facility has the following key terms:
■ A 4 year term.
■ Interest at 8.5% per annum (payable quarterly).
■ Principal deferral period of 18 months from first draw down, payable quarterly thereon.

Further the Group’s subsidiary, Kouroussa Gold Mine SA (“KGM”) entered into a senior secured term debt facility with Coris Bank International (“Coris”) for $30,000,000. This amount was undrawn as at 31December 2021. The debt facility has the same terms as
reflected above.

I can't find the drawdown date for the $30m. It was still partially available in June 22 so It's potentially a bit later than I thought.

[temujiin] 10/2/2023 15:00

I believe I read the loan only becomes payable once Kour is producing.

[plat hunter] 10/2/2023 14:50

It can only be circa 10 million if you think there"s four months in a quarter.

[plat hunter] 10/2/2023 14:46

I have 7.5 million a quarter for 8.9% on 100 million over 4 years

[plat hunter] 10/2/2023 14:33

Total bank debt for 2021 was circa 61 million with circa 14 repaid in the year.

NET debt as of 31st December 2021 was 21 million.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/2/2023 14:31

#Kinbasket, thanks, you beat me to the next bit of research, so yes principle and interest due from June 2023 on the larger proportion, so the 1st quarter payable would be period June - August at around USD2.8M a month until T2 triggers..?

Cashflows for Q4 were +11M
Cashflows for Q1 est 18M
Cashflows for Q2 est 18M + Kouroussa ramp up

Easily manageable repayments..?

[kinbasket] 10/2/2023 14:06

Principle and interest is due on only T1 from June 2023, so c1.5M a month from combined cashflows..

In the 2021 annual report it clearly states the SMK loan of $70m was fully drawn down in December 2021. The KGM $30m loan was undrawn but drawn shortly after.

The principal repayments are split over the remaining 10 quarters of the loan term. So $7m plus interest (approx $9m) in June rising to about $11m in the next quarter.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/2/2023 13:46

#Kinbasket, 12.10.2021· The project is fully funded to production from internal cash-flows and a group financing package of up to USD100M from Coris Bank.

The financing package is split into three debt tranches:

1st tranche of USD40M to be drawn imminently ahead of construction scheduled to begin soon after
2nd tranche of USD30M to be drawn when further into the construction phase, expected in 2022
3rd tranche of USD30M is available for final capex requirements and internal growth initiatives
The term of the loan is 4 years, being interest only for the first 18 months on each debt tranche once drawn, at 8.5% fixed interest..
rate.
The loan is based on a binding term sheet, with final loan documentation being completed to allow the first debt tranche to be drawn imminently..

21-10-2022 - T4 additional financing includes a one year loan facility of approximately USD15m which has already been made available on similar terms to existing facilities the Company has in place.

Principle and interest is due on only T1 from June 2023, so c1.5M a month from combined cashflows to start with, then it will ramp up as T2 triggers, but given payback was slated as 2 years, I would expect the company to hammer the debt out just as quick as they are able to..

[kinbasket] 10/2/2023 13:05

And if they don't have $9m cash on hand in June to make the first principal repayment to Coris, how does that fit into the forecast ?

[zhockey] 10/2/2023 12:49

DB, if the produce 240k at $600/oz profit. How do you still have $125m debt at year end?

[dickbush] 10/2/2023 10:42

On a $600 net (gold price-AISC)and 240,000 oz, and using that 3.2 multiple from RSG I can get to an Enterprise Value of $460 mil for 2024. Assuming, again, optimistically, that net debt is down to $125 mil by year end leaves an equity valuation of $335 mil.

With 573.5 mil shares in issue and £1=$1.21, I get to 48p Add on 2p for Dugbe for a total of 50p. My pipe dream for 2024, assuming gold at $1850.

That's with everything going as well as possible, and we've been short changed on Betts' targets for the past three years. The 240,000 oz I've used is, obviously, above his target for 2024!

Note: every $14 mil debt reduction would be worth 2p on the share price.

[borderterrier1] 09/2/2023 19:37

Luckily, I can afford it and I have now more or less written off the remaining $50,000 I have invested here. Any new investors who are considering investing need to think very carefully and accept the hard facts over the last six years. But, please don't take my word for it. Many, many others invested have now said, long term this is a very, very, VERY, risky punt. Why? Don't forget the man at the helm is a completely inexperienced young guy that is determined to make a name for himself. He pays himself a large salary regardless of results and it appears that he couldn't give a rat's a$$ about the shareholders......otherwise he would stand down and hand the reins to someone capable. But he won't. If this eventually becomes profitable that's great, i will be very pleased. But please remember that DB couldn't care less if that happens in 5 years or 50. He still gets paid very handsomely regardless.

[trader465] 09/2/2023 17:58

Only Dans bank account has exponential cash growth, the company has exponential shares in issue growth

[plat hunter] 09/2/2023 17:32

It's not a lot...Could go a lot higher but 70 million a year which is conservative imo for 240k at 1200 aisc would still only be 7 times earnings for 500 mill mcap.

SLP is a great example as to what the trajectory might be from 7p now in terms of exponential cash growth

[bo doodak] 09/2/2023 17:19

PH,

It's going to be interesting too see if that hunch turns out to be correct.

I've always had the nagging feeling that DB, and understandably so I suppose given his history, could not bear to see Dugbe developed without him being involved right at the heart of it, regardless of how it is achieved. Hopefully, there should be 'strategic' developments on that soon as well.

But there's no way I'm adding here till there's more clarity on all of this.

[zhockey] 09/2/2023 17:00

How do you get to 500m Mcap?

[plat hunter] 09/2/2023 16:40

Good observation on the General Meeting, I had presumed the AGM also and you are correct that an EGM is not out of the question.

I guess I had hoped for the opportunity of having Q1 on hand with an outlook for Q2 before we are to vote. If we have to vote for it earlier than the AGM then it will be a painful lesson in being early but at least we get to see 240k ounces on the back of it, rather than being a jam tomorrow story that sucks us all dry without even the hint of any form of return.

Kor is guaranteed and with it, the exponential growth of the company. Sit back and relax now. My course of action now is to vote yes and carry on adding 500 sheets a month to my ISA.

Not touching or adding to my other wrappers now. 120 million EBITDA guaranteed. The alternative might be limping backwards and forwards for another 2 years.

Vote yes, get it done and start looking forward to the 80-100 million a year cash accruals.

500 million mcap by end of 2024 or an share price of £1 versus a potential 1.25 without CIG. I can live with that to make sure it happens

[bo doodak] 09/2/2023 16:29

On a more positive note, if the PRICE of developing HUM into a much larger entity over the next few years, with support from Coris, is to give Coris a much larger slice of the pie at this point then I can live with that

[zhockey] 09/2/2023 16:18

Below the placing price, pretty incredible. I guess no one has the patience considering this is now greatly de-risked.