Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[temujiin] 11/2/2023 17:12

That last bit puzzled me first time I read it. I'd rather they diluted less and explored more after Kour was easily wiping its face.

[plat hunter] 11/2/2023 16:58

Last six words here are key..Always a shame to have to point out the obvious after someone has gone to such efforts to post an essay about something they're not that bothered about.


"As noted above, the US$15 million proceeds of the Subscription will be used to strenghten the Company's balance sheet and provide improved liquidity to help ensure we bring our second gold mine, Kouroussa in Guinea into production as scheduled for first gold pour by the end of Q2 2023 and to help fund additional exploration."

[1knocker] 11/2/2023 16:09

The one thing you can be sure of from the figures which we do know is that Hum's financing is only going to get more expensive, the same as anyone's does when they are looking for new loans or to refinance or renegotiate existing loans when they are in financial difficulty, even if that is only a temporary difficulty (which in Hum's case I doubt).

Don't imagine that contractor deferrals come free either.The contractor is is in business ; it is not a charity. The contractor on site has a pretty strong negotiating hand too. Contractors will not be queuing up to replace them, and Hum could not afford the short term delay and cost even if it could find a contractor offering better terms.

This is a business between a rock and a hard place, which has little control over its destiny. That is not a recipe for shareholder returns.

I do't expect to see my money back here. The only question is what the chances are of a better exit point than now. So far, hanging on has just increased my loss. The earlies cut is usually the cheapest, not least because it frees capital to be better invest elsewhere. If we get a bounce in the POG later in the year, that will probably be the best moment to get out. But if there is a dip first (which seems quite likely) will Hum be in any position to benefit from the bounce? And if there is no bounce,wat price Hum? It also has to be borne in mind that anything I take out of Hum now and reinvest in a stronger player now will probably do better than it would if left invested in Hum, even if the bounce comes and Hum is not bu then too crippled to benefit much from it.

I have very little in Hum, so the loss in ££ is infuriating rater than significant in the context of my portfolio even though the % loss is my worst on any stock I had. Its really a toss up between (a) the desirability of cleaning up the portfolio and ceasing to waste any time and thought on Hum and (b) leaving it in the sock drawer and trying not to waste more time and energy thinking about it.

The risk that I would be tearing up a winning lottery ticket seems minuscule, as one way or another either total collapse, limping on at an ever lower SP, or a capital raise and massive dilution look to be a racing certainty. I think I have just answered my own question, so I may not be contributing to this BB again.

[borderterrier1] 11/2/2023 16:00

Lots of "interesting" links to click on the LSE bb yesterday, especially the one from agricore. Thanks for posting and I sincerely hope the predictions come true. But after all the hype with the early Yanfofailure and the resulting miserable share price now, I wonder if any serious investors actually believe any of it?

[temujiin] 11/2/2023 15:15

Kinbasket, HUM won't renegotiate after missing a payment unless they have no choice. I was suggesting they could probably fairly easily renegotiate prior to principle payment due date, if required.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/2/2023 14:44

Cashflows for Q4 were +11M
CIG tranche1 +USD3.8M
CIG tranche2 +USD11.2M tbc
Cashflows for Q1 est 18M
Cashflows for Q2 est 18M + Kouroussa ramp up

Given the above (+62M) added to the balance sheet I do not see why we should be in a shortfall position in any way..? given the contractor deferrals already agreed..

Furthermore, IMO it is highly unlikely any CFO would agree to principle repayments starting before the funded project is scheduled to deliver cashflows to support the payments..?, that does not make sense, it is commercial suicide not planning..

[plat hunter] 11/2/2023 14:38

It's in arrears, paying in June would be equal to 11 quarterly payments. It's just a question of being able to count to 10 😂😂

[kinbasket] 11/2/2023 14:31

LLB, I don't know. I agree it could be either depending on how the loan is written. It could be payments suspended for 18 months then the first payment is due for the three months leading up to the 18th.

If I was a shareholder I'd ask for clarification on the exact situation from the company.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/2/2023 14:20

#kinbasket, thanks for you input, this is the information on terms I could not find, are you able to reference it is paid in advance..? the 1st quarter payable would be June/July/August, due on 01.09.2023..?

IIRC the AISC covered everything outside of our UK office costs, so FCF should be very close to margin per ounce multiples..?

12.10.2021 - the term of the loan is four years, being interest only for the first 18 months on each debt tranche once drawn, at an 8.5% fixed interest rate
The loan is based on a binding term sheet, with final loan documentation being completed to allow the first debt tranche to be drawn imminently
A capex payback period of approximately two years is forecast once in production

[kinbasket] 11/2/2023 14:13

LLB

Debt interest and principle sums will start at cUSD2.8M a month and ratchet up as the tranches drawn down trigger, but ounces poured will ratchet up too.. :o)

I agree with the amount but the significant thing is it's paid quarterly so they don't need $2.8m a month they need $9m in June/July. That difference could matter.

Tem

LLB, although not a given, I don't think HUM would have too much hassle renegotiating a 3 or 6 month delay to paying back principle as long as interest payments are met.

Possibly but missing the first payment is a covenant breach. Any breach of covenant means the loan is repayable in full. Standard stuff. Whether a lender chooses to enforce that or renegotiate is up to them. But it is up to them, not Hum. If Coris want it for themselves they can have it.

Right now all you know is EBITDA was $11m in the last Q. Which is meaningless. How much free cashflow, if any, is there ? And how much of that is needed for K ?

[plat hunter] 11/2/2023 10:59

Twitter clocking up posts about HUM

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/2/2023 09:49

#PH, confidence will return after the Q1 update as I see it after demonstrating progress on top of the already very good Q4, Q1 will give us all the indicators we need to see from Yanfolila, Kouroussa and an update from the strategic review of Dugbe..

[plat hunter] 11/2/2023 09:34

It really does look like a corner has been turned at Yani...Fingers crossed it's enough to save us from T2 but either way I'll be glad to just get there too.

Even with the T2 dilution we're still only talking circa 500 million shares in issue...Negligible if you're looking out to 2025 imo

[plat hunter] 11/2/2023 09:25

Just for fun Friday close.

Plat 9p
Tem 7.1p
Zhocky 12.5p

[temujiin] 11/2/2023 08:34

True Platt, I was just extrapolating from figures of the last 2 Qs as a maths exercise. I also believe 22k per quarter given KE being mined is a borderline lie prediction. It shld be easily 25k plus.

LLB, although not a given, I don't think HUM would have too much hassle renegotiating a 3 or 6 month delay to paying back principle as long as interest payments are met.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/2/2023 08:18

It is a fair comment that the debt repayments start in June, but this is nothing new and part of the timing of events, the new plant should/will be ramping up before then, how far ahead we will find out in the Q1 update, 25.04.2022 last year.

Debt interest and principle sums will start at cUSD2.8M a month and ratchet up as the tranches drawn down trigger, but ounces poured will ratchet up too.. :o)

Repayment period slated at 2 years, but we could get well inside of that with a 1,200 AISC across both mines..

Exciting times, the CIG tranche2 backstop is tbc, and we will soon see if an EGM is scheduled, unpleasant as this T2 is, it does underpin the balance sheet to ensure solvency and project timelines..

Net debt position cUSD114M end of Q4 2022 (USD110M including gold inventory)
2023 - 125K ounces, 1,250 AISC, 650 margin, USD80M EBITDA
2024 - 200K ounces, 1,200 AISC, 700 margin, USD140M EBITDA - debt zero/cash positive and dividends..?

Kouroussa estimate 120-140,000 for 1st 3 years then 100K ounces for LOM..
Mobilisation of mining personnel and equipment took place during Q4 2022, with mining ramping up in Q1/Q2 2023..

[plat hunter] 10/2/2023 23:26

Just for fun Friday close.

Plat 9p
Tem 7.1

[plat hunter] 10/2/2023 23:25

AISC guidance on that 80-90 is sub 1500, so I reckon we can safely add another 200 sheets an ounce... 360 x 22,500 = 8.1 million 😀

[plat hunter] 10/2/2023 21:09

Next Friday closing price... just for fun

Plat - 9p

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/2/2023 17:32

The contractor (Wacom) for the Kouroussa plant build is on an incentive to complete early, some free shares IIRC although I am unable to find the RNS text, but we are told all is on schedule for 1st pour before June..

[edit] the WACOM contract is a lump sum fixed price, with penalties for late delivery. Additionally, to help ensure the project is delivered on time, the Company has agreed an incentive package consisting of a potential bonus of up to USD2.6M, consisting of a cash bonus of up to USD0.75M with the balance of up to USD1.85M (£1,395,000) payable through the issue of 6,342,857 new shares in Hummingbird Resources Plc at the agreed price of £0.22 per share, to be issued 12 months after expected delivery date (i.e., in first half
of 2024).

Pint O'clock here, let them get on with it.. :o)

[kinbasket] 10/2/2023 16:43

From the 2021 annual report my bold

New Coris Senior Loan Facility

On 4 November 2021, the Group’s subsidiary, Société des Mines de Komana SA (“SMK”) entered into a senior secured term debt facility with Coris Bank International (“Coris”) for CFA 38,500,000,000 (approximately $70,000,000 before any fees).

In December 2021, the full amount was drawn down. The debt facility has the following key terms:
■ A 4 year term.
■ Interest at 8.5% per annum (payable quarterly).
■ Principal deferral period of 18 months from first draw down, payable quarterly thereon.

Further the Group’s subsidiary, Kouroussa Gold Mine SA (“KGM”) entered into a senior secured term debt facility with Coris Bank International (“Coris”) for $30,000,000. This amount was undrawn as at 31December 2021. The debt facility has the same terms as
reflected above.

I can't find the drawdown date for the $30m. It was still partially available in June 22 so It's potentially a bit later than I thought.