Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[temujiin] 26/9/2020 20:53

A recent article by Seeking Alpha (yes all articles need to be taken with a pinch of salt) suggested mid tier ($100m to $3B) gold producers offer the best upside. HUM fits this/his view and he lists HUM as one to buy. I agree with the posts above suggesting Kouroussa is a fantastic. Yanifolia is great and very profitable, Kouroussa will be just as good imo, and possibly better. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4376036-how-to-ride-this-precious-metals-bull-market-to-top?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=must-read-tesla-to-make-cells-in-germany-umm-not-so-fast-elon&utm_campaign=nl-must-read&utm_content=link-7 Mid-Tiers and the Sweet Spot Ideally, the best entry points for mid-tier producers are FD (fully diluted) market caps between $100 million and $200 million. Many of these size companies can grow into billion-dollar companies. The one factor that seems to be pervasive with mid-tier producers is that they tend to grow their resources and production. This is the factor that makes them so appealing - they tend to be growth companies. While the sweet spot is acquiring mid-tiers with lower market caps ($100-200 million), I think the returns are sufficient all the way up to $3 billion. Of course, I don’t only use the market cap to determine if a stock is suitable. I also look at the upside and downside ratings. If a stock has an upside rating of only a 2 (rating descriptions are included at the end of this article), then I will check it carefully to see if it should be included. Basically, it had to be a very good 2-rated stock to be included. Below, I have a list of 27 mid-tier producers that all look good if this bull market has legs. If I was going to create a gold/silver mining stock ETF today, this would be my list.

[roguetreader] 26/9/2020 19:16

As an update / correction to my previous post I see that at least some of the exceptional drill intercepts are from 2007 / 2008. Getting a bit ahead of myself and need to wait and get an update from HUM; still think it has game changing potential :).

[chipperfrd] 26/9/2020 17:03

Agreed. The overall grade of the 1.178Moz total resource at Kouroussa is 3.08g/t. However, I assume that HUM will aim to build that resource, especially to add ounces into Measured & Indicated on the road to establishing an initial Reserve ready for the DFS. Much more to come in news about that project in the months to come!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/9/2020 16:38

Those grades and gram metre highlights are outstanding at Kouroussa, but will of course get blended with the run of the mill grade ore to achieve a very respectable average.. For reference Yanfolila averaged 2.66g/tonne in H1-2020 The share price softened a little this week, it is possible/probable that SC are still selling down but we will get another TR1 when they hit the next reporting threshold number.. What is much more important than today is where the company is going to be in 12-24-36 months time, and that is debt free, cash positive, paying dividends and potentially producing a combined 200-225 K/oz per year..

[chipperfrd] 26/9/2020 15:51

Thanks RT, Here is the table of exploration highlights for Kouroussa with Gramme-Metre calculations added for emphasis given how results over 100 gm are considered pretty exceptional. Hole ID .. Prospect ...... From .... To . Length . Au g/t . Gram-Metre KRC0565 .. Sanu Folo ..... 30.0 .. 48.0 ... 18.0 ... 70.8 ..... 1274.0 KD125 .... Sanu Filanan .. 73.0 .. 86.0 ... 13.0 ... 53.0 ...... 689.5 KRC1381 .. Sanu Filanan . 114.0 . 123.0 .... 9.0 ... 64.1 ...... 576.5 KRC1378 .. Sanu Filanan .. 33.0 .. 53.0 ... 20.0 ... 26.0 ...... 519.4 KD005 .... Sanu Filanan .. 34.8 .. 41.1 .... 6.3 ... 70.7 ...... 445.5 KRC1570 .. Sanu Filanan .. 29.0 .. 37.0 .... 8.0 ... 46.7 ...... 373.8 KRC1515 .. JJ ............ 55.0 .. 64.0 .... 9.0 ... 43.4 ...... 391.0 KRC0027 .. JJ ............ 16.0 .. 30.0 ... 14.0 ... 23.9 ...... 334.6 KRC1110 .. JJ ............ 97.0 . 102.0 .... 5.0 ... 42.6 ...... 213.1 KRC1000 .. KD-1 .......... 77.0 .. 95.0 ... 18.0 ... 13.9 ...... 250.6 KRC0975 .. KD-1 .......... 38.0 .. 50.0 ... 12.0 ... 18.3 ...... 219.1 KRC0862 .. Kinkine ....... 46.0 .. 70.0 ... 24.0 ... 19.4 ...... 465.8 KRAB0416 . Kinkine ....... 56.0 .. 68.0 ... 12.0 ... 38.7 ...... 464.0 KRC0861 .. Kinkine ....... 11.0 .. 25.0 ... 14.0 ... 17.7 ...... 247.8 KRC0910 .. Kinkine ....... 88.0 .. 92.0 .... 4.0 ... 47.1 ...... 188.3 KRC0828 .. Kinkine ....... 42.0 .. 77.0 ... 35.0 .... 3.8 ...... 133.4 XV004 .... X-Vein ........ 52.5 .. 54.5 .... 2.0 .. 151.8 ...... 303.6 XVRC-004 . X-Vein ....... 188.0 . 198.0 ... 10.0 ... 17.8 ...... 178.3 XV018 .... X-Vein ........ 95.0 .. 99.0 .... 4.0 ... 40.1 ...... 160.6 XVDH-003 . X-Vein ....... 110.5 . 112.6 .... 2.1 ... 64.5 ...... 135.4 XVDH-003 . X-Vein ....... 121.2 . 123.8 .... 2.6 ... 33.2 ....... 86.3 KRC1432 .. Junction ...... 61.0 .. 97.0 ... 36.0 .... 5.6 ...... 202.7 KRC0783 .. Junction ...... 81.0 .. 83.0 .... 2.0 ... 88.7 ...... 177.4 KRC0752 .. Junction ....... 9.0 .. 14.0 .... 5.0 ... 30.2 ...... 151.1 KRC0748 .. Junction ...... 22.0 .. 93.0 ... 71.0 .... 2.1 ...... 148.4 KD174 .... Junction ...... 35.0 .. 48.0 ... 13.0 .... 7.1 ....... 92.6 Hopefully, this time it will line up a bit better!! Chip

[ukgeorge] 26/9/2020 12:40

hTTps://static1.squarespace.com/static/5898d2fdd1758e28995d7453/t/5f6e130079b8ee28a356a787/1601049379433/pasofino-gold-presentation.pdf A very concise presentation from Pasofino.

[avsome1968] 26/9/2020 10:09

Hi BT hope your well pal, sold out here again 39p with the pull back in gold could still fall further before we get a bounce, can see hum pulling back 32p range so rather trade hum than be long term. Hum been left behind from other gold producers its a fact yet others cant seem to see it, i fully respect your points, problems within hum and the share price says it all, but if it falls a tad lower i will add again but only to trade with have a good weekend BT.AV.

[ukgeorge] 25/9/2020 18:37

Thanks Rogue hTTps://www.sedar.com/GetFile.do?lang=EN&docClass=7&issuerNo=00006208&issuerType=03&projectNo=02020702&docId=3277099 hTTps://www.sedar.com/issuers/company_issuers_c_en.htm Cassidy Gold Corp

[roguetreader] 25/9/2020 18:18

As RH states above Kouroussa has stunning grades as indicated by the HUM RNS on the 26/06/20. When you review the only formal published resource statement on Kouroussa i.e. the 2012 PEA published by Cassidy Gold you get a pretty good resource of circa 966K Oz with the majority as an OP resource at between 2.5 – 3 gpt. This overall doesn’t scream to me the amazing intercepts the like of which were in the HUM RNS. Looking at Cassidy’s history, you see that they delisted from the TSXV in March 2016 and have been operating privately since, where Alchemist their chief financier took them out. Then looking at the Cassidy publications up to the point of delisting, they were still drilling and exploring the Kouroussa deposit up until at least February 2015 and probably beyond. In Feb 2015 they appointed Skandus Pty Ltd. of Australia to prepare a revised resource statement for the Kouroussa Gold Project. This revised statement was to take into account re-interpretation of the geological structures and controls of the Kouroussa Gold Project. Then within the Cassidy Management Information Circular (MIC) publication from April 2017 there is a Comprehensive Valuation Report (CVR) produced by Evans & Evans consultants of the whole Cassidy company, that gives the owners a view of the company’s value at that time. The CVR valued Cassidy at approximately $4M. At this time the gold price was around $1230 an Oz. Move forward to 2020 with the gold price at between $1850 and $2000 an Oz, HUM paid significantly more than $4M. However, going back to the drill intercepts and the ongoing exploration after 2012. In the CVP from above, section 1 talks about relying on the 2012 PEA NI 43-101 statement, but then goes on to state that the Kouroussa deposit is made up of: Probable Reserves – 252,725 Oz Indicated Resource – 643,074 Oz Inferred Resource – 255,946 Oz However, there has been no ‘publishedR17; NI 43-101 since the 2012 PEA and there were ‘no reserves’ included in that PEA. My thinking is that most of the stunning drill intercepts we see in the HUM RNS have been drilled post 2012 and this now makes the potential for Kouroussa far greater than could be evaluated in the 2012 PEA and HUM have potentially got a massive bargain. Looking forward to the next updates from HUM on Kouroussa it could be a game changer IMO.

[dickbush] 25/9/2020 17:36

Dollar rally continues, back to the level it was on 22nd July. By no coincidence so is the gold price. What does this mean for the Dollar and gold? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Altks8FU0UY&t=116s

[charlieeee] 25/9/2020 16:56

LLB I am assuming that is the same as a capital repayment mortgage: same monthly payments each month, but weighted at the beginning towards interest and then by the end, mainly capital, as interest is calculated on the continually reducing capital outstanding.

[rickyhatton] 25/9/2020 10:25

hTtps://t.co/RLlRpcBKFY?amp=1 "Kouroussa has stunning grades and stunning exploration potential" "Free cash profile is going to increase dramatically ... essentially internally funded to build the Kouroussa project... internally funded to be a 200k oz plus producer wuithin the next 2 years .." CEO, Dan Betts, as he discusses our growth to date, from #gold production in Mali, to our development project in Liberia, alongside Pasofino, and exploration in Guinea, driving towards our aim of becoming an #ethical multi-asset producer "Substantial progress is being made at our airstrip at the Yanfolila Mine, with the expectation that it will be operational later this month. The airstrip will allow greater optionality in the movement of gold, people and certain goods" Indication in interview that Kouroussa might be funded substantially from free cash flow and not in the main from taking on additional loan as debt

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/9/2020 17:22

#Retrend, interesting, I’ve been tracking the loan repayments, which have typically been -5M or -6M per quarter, but Q2 was -8M, so I took from that there were no disincentives and no over payment penalties....? We also had USD6M cash and 8M gold in hand at H1, so any excess could be put to good use paying debt down IMO.. either way, the net cash positive milestone will not be long now, and POG has just gone positive for tomorrow morning.. :o)

[redtrend] 24/9/2020 17:03

There's an overpayment penalty on the loan which makes such overpayments unlikely and not best use of cash

[casual47] 24/9/2020 16:49

LLB, that sounds, on the face of it, like a no-brainer but it may not be that simple. Free net cash is hugely valuable in a business and there could be many things more deserving of using it for than paying down debt.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/9/2020 16:41

#casual47, that is true, however I would suggest overpayments on a loan carrying 10% interest is a smart idea, smash it down as quick as possible, and use the savings on the following interest element for additional overpayments next month..., trade payables don't usually carry penalties..We're almost there.., net cash positive next.. :o)..

[casual47] 24/9/2020 16:37

There's no need to pay off debt faster than required if excess cash can be put to use more effectively.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/9/2020 16:17

#UKG, it is possible in Q3, but from DB comments on the recent Vox interview, I now expect that milestone in Q4, we will know the more accurate debt/cash/gold position in the next update..., my interpretation is some of Q3 profits have now gone to service the trade payables instead, the result will be the same at year end, just cutting the cake in different slices...

[ukgeorge] 24/9/2020 15:37

"Laurence Llewelyn Binliner19 Sep '20 - 13:39 - 2962 of 2997 0 2 0 Reference 12 month average Dore sale price was -35/oz below spot, payable after refining costs / impurity penalties / Ag credits.. Q3-2019 POG 1473 / sale price 1422 (-51/oz) Q4-2019 POG 1480 / sale price 1452 (-28/oz) Q1-2020 POG 1582 / sale price 1568 (-14/oz) Q2-2020 POG 1710 / sale price 1663 (-47/oz) Q3-2020 POG c1930 / sale price c1895 / AISC c970 / c925 margin 30,000 ounces / USD27.75M EBITDA Call it USD10M a month for ease of calculations.. :o)" I thought we were going to be debt free this quarter :( What changed?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/9/2020 14:50

Q3 closing next week, our update around 21st October and we can see the dent made in the bank debt, the payments made (around USD9M) and we should be in net cash from October .. Bank debt was USD-26M ar Q2, with cash and gold at +14M, payments during Q3 will leave c-17M debt.. We could be just about cash/debt neutral with a tailwind at end of September, leaving the trade payables of -36M for H1 2021, depends how they cut the cake and what goes where.. :o)

[casual47] 24/9/2020 14:42

Even before the oz increase to 250k oz pa we should already see fundamentals strengthen as they reach the various milestones in the projects for Kouroussa/Dugbe. No need to wait for 18-24 months.

[borderterrier1] 24/9/2020 14:07

I really would prefer not to hear any more good news and glowing reports/podcasts from the Ceo to drop this already abysmal share price even further. After five years nobody believes it because routinely DB dangles a few carrots to throw people off. And before you say BT's being negative again, what do you expect? I really wish I had something positive to say here, but the track record is hardly impressive, is it? And as Everyonesfool says on today's LSE bb, quote:-"Still a bit residually worried about his (DB's) actual commitment to rewarding shareholders in the end though." No!!! Really? You don't say.