Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[johnhemming] 07/2/2023 08:09

I think some of the selling pressure yesterday related to movements in the gold price.

[zhockey] 07/2/2023 07:55

All things considered, I’d say this is the most attractive entry point for HUM since it’s inception. Arguably the prospects are better now than when the share price was pushing 40p.

Let’s hope valuable lessons have been learned on operations and it would be nice to see another asset in the pipeline for next year. Some years ago they looked at a potential satellite partner with low grade oxide ore, I can’t remember the name but perhaps something grass roots like that.

In the short term looks like the large holder is still selling and that could hold the share price back for a while, however if gold makes a sustainable run then expect index funds to pick up the slack.

[creditcrunchies] 07/2/2023 00:56

Maybe I've read it the wrong way but pushing the glossy stuff to one side of amazing if's buts and maybes we've now got $96.8 Million of debt + $35 million of debt to finance themselves into production of the new mine. Has the net assets changed? Last details gave net fixed assets at $204 Million. So we've got debt at $132 Million. The delay in reporting Q4 was probably down to getting the agreement on the $35 million. This allowed them to do their normal stuff with a presentation as far as I can see. I'm still not convinced.

[borderterrier1] 06/2/2023 23:49

Temujiin Fortunately, the "house trolls" know more than you do about this, a LOT more and their "opinions" have been spectacularly correct to date. I sincerely hope for all our sake that Del Boy can pull a rabbit out of his hat but routinely, this scenario has happened multiple times over the last several years....... and I speculate that it will continue. This isn't the sure thing you think it is.

[temujiin] 06/2/2023 21:49

Ok, been a busy day so not commentated much. Observations, from now looking at presentation as well as RNS

1. Presentation suggests 2023 guidance of up to approx 155k. I think it will be less , approx 126k, but all actual SH's are hoping for better than that.
2. Q4 has proven HUM can be profitable...if the mining fleet is working correctly
3. Q4 has shown that Corica (despite their non flashy website) are a serious mining outfit, and as we know, will also mine Kouroussa.
4. Q4 has shown, our house trolls know jack about HUM and their opinions are often embarrassing.

HUM appear to have turned it around, Q1 is going according to plan so far as well, Coris still on-board/supportive, Kouroussa still on target, grades improved as expected.

HUM are way better positioned than they were looking in Q3, but are still treading a delicate line between income from Yani + Coris debt facility + debt repayment deferrals and Kouroussa costs, but it seems everyone is still on-board that Kouroussa is a gold mine that's worth the risk.

I'm more hopeful my investment will eventually work out ok, although it might be another couple of years before HUM's value really reflects in the share price

[borderterrier1] 06/2/2023 21:03

IMO most of the "investors" on here are delusional mugs. This will never, ever see the N side of 40p again. Just too many unknowns now, Del Boy and his gang keep raking it in regardless. They are laughing all the way to the bank.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 06/2/2023 20:31

#PH, after today's news and stronger outlook, there is every chance the 50 comes up through the 200 for a golden cross, unlikely many investors will sell off now with our prospects so much brighter.. :o)

[plat hunter] 06/2/2023 19:52

Just look at this...

Green is 200 and white is 50

[polaris] 06/2/2023 16:36

Glad they beat my forecast and met revised guidance. Just landed back in UK and was expecting a margin call rather than this. Onwards and upwards!

It’ll take a few Qs to play out but the nadir is in the past, IMO. I’ll be happy for company to retain EV going forward for the next 6-8 Qs, as debt is gradually paid down, once Kouroussa is up and running.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 06/2/2023 16:11

#Charlieee, good to see you drop in here again, it has been a torturous hold, many have possibly still got head down and tin hat on.. :o)

Onward and upward, 1 swallow does not make a summer or 1 good quarter make a year, but it is indicative of Corica getting to grips with our mining problems at last and turning the ship around..

3 g/t for KE
4 g/t for KEUG
4 g/t for Kouroussa

2 g/t FY2022 average Yanfolila grade

27,860 oz of gold sold in Q4 2022 at an average realised price of USD1,726 per oz
A repeat of this for Q1 will be nearer a 1,900 POG and USD18M EBITDA

[charlieeee] 06/2/2023 15:05

Well, I am so glad to have been wrong on the last Q guestimate!

What has always been said (principally by Thomas Hill at the AGM) is that KE is their best deposit and they were expecting 3 good Q's of which this is the first and they will already have a fair idea about Q1 as, in addition to what they have poured, they also know what is being processed and what is about to be mined (from grade control).

Really, this is the most critical Q to just bridge that gap and get Kouroussa off the starting grid and two mines in operation is such a game changer and now in sight.

Such relief this morning that we were not facing dilution at this lowly share price

The market cap is plain ridiculous after today's update.

GLA

[dickbush] 06/2/2023 14:57

andrewsr. You are quite right to think about those adjustments but I am sure that is true also for RSG whose production is primarily from its Mali mine. I also didn't take into account either company's shareholdings in various quoted companies It was just back of the envelope showing how undervalued HUM is versus RSG. I can't argue that RSG is absolutely the right benchmark that the market should be looking at, it's just mine.

Taking a forecast about a year ahead is as far as I'm prepared to go. Ex SNAFU's, though, there is no question but that HUM's production "suggestion" for 2024 would put HUM's current valuation at an even bigger discount to RSG's. RSG, as far as I am aware, is not looking for a 50% increase in production in 2024.

Anyone else still trying to figure out what Betts' plan is for getting DOWN to 80-90,000 ounces from Yanfolila in 2023 after a 4th qtr that annualises at circa 113,000 oz? Is he just setting himself up for a big bonus? Who on the BoD nodded this through?

[plat hunter] 06/2/2023 14:18

Still taking bets 2023 tbc

Best guess 2023 production guidance.

Plathunter 160k
Jaspoland 150k
Temujiin 126k
LLB 125k
Sleeven 135k

[borderterrier1] 06/2/2023 13:04

Fat Grunter Is this the Whoosh you keep telling us about? I bet you're so excited you nearly peed yourself. This is now 20% of where it was as a mud field 6 years ago. Exciting times ahead? ROFLMAO

[andrewsr] 06/2/2023 11:30

DB, why not use a full production year (2024), i.e. next year - 200,000 oz at say, $1300 AISC and allow for the reduced ownership (85% at Yan and 80% at Kouroussa?)? I can't remember the proportions owned..

[sleveen] 06/2/2023 11:19

Seems fair to me, but I'm biased.

[dickbush] 06/2/2023 11:17

OK So this is a bit silly but I thought I would have go. Obviously, this assumes no SNAFU's in the year ahead.

Kouroussa: 50,000 oz at $1,150
Yanfolila: 90,000 oz at $1,450

Gives 140,000 oz at $1,340.

With gold at $1,874 that gives a net $534/ oz

$534 * 140,000 = $74.76 mil

3.2 times (RSG's rating)= $239.2 mil

Take off peak debt, say, $150 mil, leaves $89.2 or 18.59p at £=$1.20.

Looking at it the other way round, with HUM at 8.3p, its market value is $39 mil. So the market is implying a net debt of $200 mil. That seems a bit extreme to me.

Perhaps balance sheet issues mean HUM has to sell at a discount to RSG, but when the debt starts coming down, surely we can start getting optimistic about the share price.

[plat hunter] 06/2/2023 10:59

We'll see lower gold and a higher dollar again before we see 2k again imo.

US consumer strong, Germany knackered, UK just incompetent whilst Japan's printer has been stuck on print for the last 40 years.

[dickbush] 06/2/2023 10:48

Because we have no forecast of 2023 production and AISC from HUM, we can't do a comparison with Resolute which I use as the nearest yardstick for the valuation of HUM. FWIW, RSG's production and AISC forecasts and the current gold price come to a net of $137.9 mil. Its EV is $442 mil. That produces a multiple of 3.2 times. I'm working from RSG's presentation and it doesn't give an EBITDA forecast. FWIW, which is not a lot currently.

[sleveen] 06/2/2023 10:28

DB thanks.


F, interactive investor.