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[dickbush] 18/3/2020 09:50

Worth listening to.



Yang should have been the Democrat running against Trump. Even Trump supporters liked Yang. They're going to like him even more if UBI becomes policy.

Typically, neither Biden or Sanders took it on as policy. So, the Republicans can steal their clothes.

[casual47] 18/3/2020 09:44

$1000 for every US Adult is more than $200bn.

This crisis and the social distancing will drag on for at least a year. So a cheque every month will be more than two trillion dollars....

[dickbush] 18/3/2020 09:35

On the US economic front, after coming out with a fiscal package primarily for the benefit of the corporate sector, the Trump Administration suggested last night that it was going to put money directly into the hands of US workers. This would probably be a version of Universal Basic Income (UBI), the lead policy of the Democratic candidate, Andrew Yang. UBI was Yang's answer to the loss of manufacturing jobs, giving $1,000 a month to every American over 18 so that the growth of national income in the US was more fairly shared rather than largely benefitting the top 1%.

FYI, The Trump Administration is going to support the American airline industry. According to research done by TYT, American Airlines (the company) spent $12.5bn buying back its shares between 2010 and 2019.

[casual47] 18/3/2020 09:18

This tweet has a link to the Imperial College report and also a good summary of the implications in the thread.

[casual47] 18/3/2020 09:13

Yes, and even cutting down that time will still mean a vaccine is only likely to be available in a pharmacy or GP near you not before 12 to 18 months.

[dickbush] 18/3/2020 09:08

Also from Imperial College

The scientist leading the UK's research into a coronavirus vaccine says his team have made a significant breakthrough by reducing a part of the normal development time from "two to three years to just 14 days".
Professor Robin Shattock, head of mucosal infection and immunity at Imperial College London, said the team will now be able to start testing the vaccine on animals as early as next week, with the hope that human studies could take place in the summer.
Speaking to Sky News he said: "Conventional approaches usually take at least two to three years before you even get to the clinic. And we've gone from that sequence to generating a candidate in the laboratory in 14 days.

Last Thursday the Daily Express reported that their initial tests on mice had been successful for all dosage levels and they had started to test the potential vaccine on monkeys. Initial results in the next three weeks. If successful, they would start human testing subject to getting £2mil from the government.

[dickbush] 18/3/2020 08:25

All markets have a TENDENCY to follow Wall Street, especially major sell-offs. The enormous level of margin debt in the US seems to me to be a major problem, but, as you can see, we've been here before.



The actual numbers can be found by following the link to the FINRA website. Unfortunately, the data is not timely, as you can see. Keep checking back to see how it's developing.

[casual47] 18/3/2020 08:21

If nothing is done then current modelling is projecting nearly 90 million deaths from corona globally within 3-6 months. The Imperial College report is very scary.

Corona is nothing like the flu. The panic is warranted.

[dickbush] 18/3/2020 07:40

USA Flu season 2018/19:

CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1). The number of influenza-associated illnesses that occurred last season was similar to the estimated number of influenza-associated illnesses during the 2012–2013 influenza season when an estimated 34 million people had symptomatic influenza illness6.

USA Flu season 2017/18

The overall burden of influenza for the 2017-2018 season was an estimated 45 million influenza illnesses, 21 million influenza-associated medical visits, 810,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 61,000 influenza-associated deaths

Source:

Wikipedia: As of mid-March 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus*, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died.

*Swine flu.

The corona virus is thought to be much more lethal than the above. Latest global statistics.

[dickbush] 17/3/2020 22:16

The trade weighted Dollar was up 1.45% today, a big move and negative for gold. However, with money pouring into economies, near zero rates and, finally, fiscal stimulus, I cannot see why gold isn't doing much better. I added more HUM today.

[oohrogerpalmer] 17/3/2020 16:16

Found it in last results-

Gold sales and pricing strategy

The Company remains committed to operating as an unhedged gold producer. However, as a single asset producer with approximately US$30m of debt scheduled for repayment in the next 12 months, a significant fall in the gold price could materially impact the Group's ability to service debt and meet operating costs. Accordingly, the Group has sought to insure against this risk by investing in low cost put options at a strike price of US$1,350 per ounce over 60,000 ounces of gold in H1 2020, to effectively place a floor on the gold price without capping the exposure to the upside.

[toinifinity] 17/3/2020 14:16

Where's Borderterrier to say Corona was invented and spread by Dan?

[oohrogerpalmer] 17/3/2020 13:49

They hedged the gold price at usd 1350 for 60,000oz if i remember right , which should be enough for 6 months, not sure if that has a time limit of six months or it rolls over if not used!!!!!

[dickbush] 17/3/2020 13:44

casual, my previous posting was taken entirely from Wikipedia. No armchair opinion, just the facts of the swine flu epidemic in the US, and the time it took to get a vaccine out.

In the UK I note that herding has been abandoned and we have joined the rest of the world in our policy, and the experts who recommended it and defended it seem to no longer be on my tv.

I am certainly not savvy about fighting a virus, but I do know that the biotechnology industry has not stood still over the last decade.

" When there is a stock-market boom, and everyone is scrambling for common stocks, take all your common stocks and sell them. Take the proceeds and buy conservative bonds. No doubt the stocks you sold will go higher. Pay no attention to this-just wait for the depression which will come sooner or later. When this depression-or panic-becomes a national catastrophe, sell out the bonds (perhaps at a loss) and buy back the stocks. No doubt the stocks will go still lower. Again pay no attention. Wait for the next boom. Continue to repeat this operation as long as you live, and you’ll have the pleasure of dying rich."

Fred Schhwed Jnr circa 1940

I would substitute cash for bonds and recession for depression. He'd just lived through The Great Depression. The message, though, is that you don't need to buy at the low or sell at the peak to make good profits.

[seagreen] 17/3/2020 13:43

think they were done with out of the money relatively cheap (premium) options...so no need to use unless gold falls below this level.... no idea of how long dated they are.

[ukgeorge] 17/3/2020 10:14

Yes at $1350, if they had done any more they would have had to release the news

[bittorrent] 17/3/2020 10:07

I thought they had hedged on the downside? I wonder how long they did it for.

[avsome1968] 17/3/2020 09:52

Results will be good average gold price over last 3 months should be $1550 plus diesel cost should be down considerably , maybe they did a bit on hedging on the gold.

[ukgeorge] 17/3/2020 09:47

Casual the US is the largest producer of oil. Also the gold to oil ratio is irrelevant imo there has been very little correlation.

Q1 results should be very good. Shame that gold price has now fallen but the company should still be in a good place. Just hope they are not planning any reckless endeavours.

[casual47] 17/3/2020 09:47

China say they contained it....for now.

The consensus among scientists is that containment is not possible in the longer term if you don't keep implementing severe suppression / quarantine until there is a vaccine, which won't be here for 12-18 months.

The likelihood is that Corona will return to China before long.

[avsome1968] 17/3/2020 09:42

Casual

china with billions of people contained the virus think about it?

[casual47] 17/3/2020 09:40

If Putin is happy to oversupply the market to let the US fill up its national reserves with cheap oil, why wouldn't they buy?

China is doing the same btw

[avsome1968] 17/3/2020 09:37

Guess who's buying all the cheap oil and gold Hmmmmmm

[bittorrent] 17/3/2020 06:15

Dow down 12.9%. Ouch.