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[casual47] 16/3/2020 10:12

Those 12k aren't associated with a disease that has a cost to the economy of trillions of dollars...

[ukgeorge] 16/3/2020 10:09

I wish the FD had been doing his job and hedging gold rather than buying 25k shares (also I know very easy to say with hindsight).

This is likely a buying opportunity but who knows how low any of these equities can go.

Hopefully be one to talk about in a year or two, remember when x share fell to 70p and now pays a 70p dividend..... type scenario. (this happened to fresnillo in 2008).

Roll on this all blowing over. Putting the virus in to perspective an average 12k die each week in the UK. So far the virus has killed 6.5k.

[casual47] 16/3/2020 09:51

"“Like most vaccinologists, I don’t think this vaccine will be ready before 18 months,” says Annelies Wilder-Smith, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. That’s already extremely fast, and it assumes there will be no hitches."

[casual47] 16/3/2020 09:46

Even fast-tracked. From human testing to being in the pharmacies and every GP across the world: consensus is mid next year at the earliest.

That's assuming the virus doesn't change - like the flu does every year. In which case a vaccine will be pointless.

[qs99] 16/3/2020 09:44

casual, depends on whether they look to "fast track" things....which they should.....

Settling margin calls on gold has hit the price IMO, but reckon that has to "unwind" at some point, allowing it to continue its march north, let's see....

[casual47] 16/3/2020 09:42

Any vaccine will not be ready before summer next year. Rather than reading the Express read the opinion of scientists - they're very clear on this.

[dickbush] 16/3/2020 09:40

I'm not getting carried away. This is a panic and that's an opportunity.

My brother-in law is a 57 years old cabbie who recently caught a bug. Probably corona virus. It wiped him out for 3 days. How many of the work force are over 60?

I started a general buying program on Thursday which I will restart today.

Note that the Daily Express (bit of a rag, I know) reported that Imperial College had tested a vaccine for corona on mice with total success and they moved onto testing it on monkeys a week ago. Results in one to three weeks. Asking the gov for £2mil for human testing. They say it might take a year for general vaccination ...if it's successful. Maybe, but I still say, the US would rush this through the FDA and have this being produced by every available manufacturer in the US. Trump's presidency quite possibly depends on getting this done.

This is a killer "only" for the elderly (including me) and those with certain existing health problems.

[casual47] 15/3/2020 15:21

Before we get carried away, gold is still nearly 4% higher than it was just three months ago and it's still more than $200/oz above where we were this time last year (~17% higher).

It's $300/oz higher than where most miners need it to be to break even, just about.

[casual47] 13/3/2020 16:50

The logic/argument is fine, it's whether the assumptions the logic is based on will prove correct, or rather, prove to save more lives.

There isn't agreement on these assumptions within the scientific community. (China style quarantine vs UK approach)

The consensus among the scientists in charge of UK policy is what is informing the approach. This is also based on their understanding of UK specific aspects which are of course different to Italy's, China's etc. This includes our specific healthcare infrastructure and capacity, attitudes of the population, laws etc.

Anywho. Fingers crossed for better week altogether next week.

[casual47] 13/3/2020 12:57

Scientific opinion appears to be that a vaccine won't be ready until mid next year. Ready as in available in every pharmacy and every GP practice worldwide. Even if a vaccine has gone through all human testing this side of winter (a very big ask), the mass production and then distribution of it would take us well into next year.

[dickbush] 13/3/2020 12:43

I'm not sure I buy that either. We, like the US, completely underestimated the speed of this infection's spread. We were and are unprepared to deal with it. Given the political consequences for Trump if he doesn't get this under control soon, labs in the US (and worldwide) are working their butts off to create a vaccine. Any likely candidate is going to rocket through the FDA and could be here before next winter.

[casual47] 13/3/2020 12:14

It's not my logic, it's that of the chief medical officer of the UK and the team of scientists they have working with them.

Those diseases were quite different from Covid.

[zhockey] 13/3/2020 12:06

What happened to SARS, MERS, H1N1 and Bird Flu?

Not sure your logic is sound.

[casual47] 13/3/2020 09:50

The UK approach seems to be the most sensible:

Assuming that Corona virus is here to stay, i.e. it will morph into a seasonal virus and remain present in the global population throughout the year, coming back in winter with a vengeance, then it makes sense to not try to prevent infection but rather put the focus on spreading out the cases over time in order to let the NHS cope with it when it is most resilient, ie. the summer months.

I am sceptical about the approach that e.g. China has taken. The vast majority of their population has had no exposure to Corona and they will likely get hammered again this winter. It is unsustainable to keep repeating the huge quarantine efforts undertaken for Wuhan, especially all concentrated in the winter season. More deaths will be likely in such a case as doctors will have to triage patients and make tough decisions on who to treat.

[dickbush] 13/3/2020 09:12

At last some good news, particularly for the US which seems to have been loathe to take this virus seriously and was ill-prepared (totally unprepared)for widespread testing.



I don't know about you but, up until seeing this, I was really worried that the most important economy and market was going to drag this thing out for months because of its failure to take this infection seriously. Now, it seems, the US can, at least, find out who is infected. As Singapore showed, if you get to the people with the infection, ban mass meetings and inward travel, you can get on top of this. Of course, you still need the hospital facilities and medical staff to take care of the badly infected.

Note that on the BBC World Service this morning it was stated that this infection, unusually, can survive for quite long periods outside the body on surfaces. Take care.

[dudishes] 12/3/2020 18:57

Added @ 22.50.

Not sure gold has anything to do with mkts USA, rather an outset?

[referee1] 12/3/2020 14:38

Well HUM has teased me over the last few weeks with me being back in considerable profit on some days. But considering I have been here for a few heartbreaking years, I'm happy I'm invested here on a day like today. Indexes are plummeting and we could very much be in day 3 or 4 of the new bear market that could run deeper than 2008...

The way I see it. I'm happy for hum to go down on these days as it gets rid of the uncommitted investors. Like those people that sold at 30 twice in a row ...
Gold will shine very quickly again as the madness dies. Hopefully before our next quarter record results.
I wish everyone all the best (and good health re the virus) as I'm sure some have lost considerable money on other stocks.

[dickbush] 12/3/2020 13:44

Bigger problem in the US, margin debt.



and all markets are following the US like Pavlov's dog.

ECB getting off its ass.

[oohrogerpalmer] 12/3/2020 13:28

The problem is that most PI's who have investments have little spare cash so unless you sell ( which is pointless at the moment ) you have nothing to buy the bargains now.

[seagreen] 12/3/2020 11:42

expecting lock down monday ...this may go down in panic but should double

[dickbush] 12/3/2020 11:28

Agree with you, casual. In a panic like this, stock prices for the good, the bad or the ugly all get hammered indiscriminately. Forget about minute to minute or day to day prices, except as an opportunity.

I didn't see this coming and I never expected markets to do as badly as they have, but the Dow Jones is now just 4,000 points above where Trump won the Presidency (taking into account futures at the moment). I'm trying to research good, financially strong, small companies that have been trashed to buy and lock away.

Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble. Warren Buffett

Ideas accepted.

[qs99] 12/3/2020 11:12

Gold was over $1,500 before COVID19 hit, and at that level HUM IMO would still be making serious hay, was sitting around the 25p level etc......gold has trended higher and been in the $1,600 territory for at least a month, where HUM, SHG, CEY et al should all be making even more hay.....DYOR but this will pass and results will then show us hopefully how much hay they have been making....oil price being low should help some of the cost side IMO

[zhockey] 12/3/2020 09:38

I'd agree but for me it's only 60/40 right now.