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[casual47] 16/3/2020 19:50

As long as the Saudis are selling oil at $25/barrel gold is vulnerable.

[redtrend] 16/3/2020 19:44

What happens to the dollar though when USA gets bad?

When Asia is coming out of the worst of it and the USA is just beginning, will the safe haven still be USD?

It's a very hard market crash to time, particularly for gold and gold stocks.

[casual47] 16/3/2020 19:28

The "peak" in US is currently expected between mid-April or mid-June

[casual47] 16/3/2020 19:10

At least wait until USA is where Italy is now. Seems crazy to dip in before then.

Imagine the shock to the global system whenever that happens...

[the deacon] 16/3/2020 19:07

No point trying to pick a bottom. Buying the big drops in companies that are fundamentally sound will reap rewards over the medium term. Major gold producers won't be at these valuations when the market realises gold is the only place to turn to interest rates are zero, and as countries get bailed out left, right and centre.

[bittorrent] 16/3/2020 18:52

No great volume today like you would expect in a capitulation, if you are sitting on cash just wait a few weeks for the worst to be over.

[the deacon] 16/3/2020 18:37

Good momentum in the North American gold producers and royalty companies. Hopefully that filters down to the smaller producers like HUM too. So many reasons to be holding gold/gold producers right now, and I think it's just a matter of time before gold makes a serious move north.

[casual47] 16/3/2020 17:34

Unless you have a first hand quote of a reputable scientist who says otherwise I would suggest that we take the multitude of scientists at their word who are saying it will be at least a year before a Covid vaccine is out.

It is no good to anyone to be spreading this kind of fake news, even if they are just your own personal musing or "hunches". This is not a time for armchair experts.

AP Exclusive: Coronavirus vaccine test opens with 1st doses
By LAURAN NEERGAARD and CARLA K. JOHNSON
7 minutes ago



"Even if the research goes well, a vaccine wouldn’t be available for widespread use for 12 to 18 months, said Dr. Anthony Fauci of the U.S. National Institutes of Health."

[dickbush] 16/3/2020 16:52

Swine Flu (A H1N1): First case April 15th 2009. From wikipedia

On April 26, 2009, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services declared Swine Flu a public health emergency. On October 24, 2009, President Barack Obama declared Swine Flu a national emergency in the United States. On November 12, 2009, the CDC reported an estimated 22 million Americans had been infected with 2009 A H1N1 and 4,000 Americans have died. On December 10, 2009, the CDC reported an estimated 50 million Americans or 1 in 6 people had been infected with the 2009 A H1N1 Virus and 10,000 Americans had died, by which time the vaccine was beginning to be widely distributed to the general public by several states.[129] On December 23, 2009 the CDC reported a reduction of the disease by 59% percent and the disease was expected to end in the United States in January 2010.

Time from first case to vaccine beginning to be widely distributed 8 months.

Obama was a good guy and I'm sure pressed everyone into service to get a vaccine out. Trump's Presidency could well hang on getting a vaccine out. I'm no fan of his or Pence but the Admiral in charge of coordinating the response seems very able as does Fauci.

[casual47] 16/3/2020 10:30

The fiscal break even price for oil exporting countries is many times higher than the current $25/barrel that the Saudis are selling it at.

E.g. Iran needs to get paid nearly $200/barrel to be fiscally break even. That means, in order to not have to reduce their spending they need this price. Any lower means they need to cut government spending accordingly or raise taxes (fat chance) or dip into their reserve.

The Iranian currency is practically worthless and a lot of imports get settled in dollars.

With the oil price at $25/barrel they will need to dip into their reserve to pay for things they need to import. This will not be mainly gold but for sure gold will be part of it.

That is the risk of super low oil prices.

[ukgeorge] 16/3/2020 10:24

I doubt that CB will be selling. Neither of us know for sure so lets leave it there.

Central banks were net buyers for a 10th consecutive year: global reserves grew by 650.3t (-1% y-o-y), the second highest annual total for 50 years. Purchasing in Q4 of 109.6t was 34% lower y-o-y, although this was partly a reflection of the sheer scale of buying in 2018.

[casual47] 16/3/2020 10:20

Countries like Iraq, Kazakhstan, Iran etc do not have magic printing presses. They will dump gold.

[ukgeorge] 16/3/2020 10:19

CB do not sell gold anymore they now have a magic printing press.

[casual47] 16/3/2020 10:15

The most welcome boost right now would be Putin and the bearded psycho guy to agree to cut oil output.

That would reduce the deficit of oil producing countries and may stop the central banks in these countries from dumping gold.

It would immediately remove one sh1tstorm from this cluster of sh1tstorms.

[qs99] 16/3/2020 10:12

Two schools of thought: Panic, buy bog roll and hunker down OR this will level out in the next 4-6 weeks and life will go on....in which case long-term investors are better off holding rather than selling in to the dips? Let's see.....Just the news of a vaccine or cure coming out when markets look 6 months ahead may help settle nerves.... DYOR

[casual47] 16/3/2020 10:12

Those 12k aren't associated with a disease that has a cost to the economy of trillions of dollars...

[ukgeorge] 16/3/2020 10:09

I wish the FD had been doing his job and hedging gold rather than buying 25k shares (also I know very easy to say with hindsight).

This is likely a buying opportunity but who knows how low any of these equities can go.

Hopefully be one to talk about in a year or two, remember when x share fell to 70p and now pays a 70p dividend..... type scenario. (this happened to fresnillo in 2008).

Roll on this all blowing over. Putting the virus in to perspective an average 12k die each week in the UK. So far the virus has killed 6.5k.

[casual47] 16/3/2020 09:51

"“Like most vaccinologists, I don’t think this vaccine will be ready before 18 months,” says Annelies Wilder-Smith, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. That’s already extremely fast, and it assumes there will be no hitches."

[casual47] 16/3/2020 09:46

Even fast-tracked. From human testing to being in the pharmacies and every GP across the world: consensus is mid next year at the earliest.

That's assuming the virus doesn't change - like the flu does every year. In which case a vaccine will be pointless.

[qs99] 16/3/2020 09:44

casual, depends on whether they look to "fast track" things....which they should.....

Settling margin calls on gold has hit the price IMO, but reckon that has to "unwind" at some point, allowing it to continue its march north, let's see....

[casual47] 16/3/2020 09:42

Any vaccine will not be ready before summer next year. Rather than reading the Express read the opinion of scientists - they're very clear on this.

[dickbush] 16/3/2020 09:40

I'm not getting carried away. This is a panic and that's an opportunity.

My brother-in law is a 57 years old cabbie who recently caught a bug. Probably corona virus. It wiped him out for 3 days. How many of the work force are over 60?

I started a general buying program on Thursday which I will restart today.

Note that the Daily Express (bit of a rag, I know) reported that Imperial College had tested a vaccine for corona on mice with total success and they moved onto testing it on monkeys a week ago. Results in one to three weeks. Asking the gov for £2mil for human testing. They say it might take a year for general vaccination ...if it's successful. Maybe, but I still say, the US would rush this through the FDA and have this being produced by every available manufacturer in the US. Trump's presidency quite possibly depends on getting this done.

This is a killer "only" for the elderly (including me) and those with certain existing health problems.

[casual47] 15/3/2020 15:21

Before we get carried away, gold is still nearly 4% higher than it was just three months ago and it's still more than $200/oz above where we were this time last year (~17% higher).

It's $300/oz higher than where most miners need it to be to break even, just about.

[casual47] 13/3/2020 16:50

The logic/argument is fine, it's whether the assumptions the logic is based on will prove correct, or rather, prove to save more lives.

There isn't agreement on these assumptions within the scientific community. (China style quarantine vs UK approach)

The consensus among the scientists in charge of UK policy is what is informing the approach. This is also based on their understanding of UK specific aspects which are of course different to Italy's, China's etc. This includes our specific healthcare infrastructure and capacity, attitudes of the population, laws etc.

Anywho. Fingers crossed for better week altogether next week.