Howden Joinery Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 27/2/2015 10:56

New all time highs this morning.

CR

[dlku] 26/2/2015 15:19

grtowth slowing

[cockneyrebel] 26/2/2015 11:35

Takes a while through the reporting season for forecasts to get upgraded imo. After the results the co isn't going to guide for the full year without being cautious imo - there's 10 months to go.

As the year goes on brokers will continue to tweak forecasts up imo.

Traders will be busting for instant gratification but long term holders will be more than happy with a steady walk north or 'more of the same' imo.

The £70m buy backs will help keep the price firm in any weaker times too imo.

All imo/dyor etc and make your own decisions.

CR

[aishah] 26/2/2015 09:34

Motoring.
Canaccord BUY - 521p target
J P Morgan OVERWEIGHT - 500p tp

[shauney2] 26/2/2015 09:27

And there's more;-)from Cannacord

2014 results and outlook

Final PBT of £189m was a tad ahead of our £185m prior view for 2014 with net cash strong at £218m (vs our £180m prior view). The overriding feature of the results is the £70m cash return by way of a share buy-back and a strong full year dividend increase to 8.4p (vs our 7.7p hope and consensus of 7.8p) being 2.75x covered. The other feature of the results was a strong gross margin of 63.7% (vs our 63.0 prior view) although going forward the group is flagging c£10m additional operating costs from higher pension and other costs - the pension deficit on the Balance Sheet increased to £142.6m (from £54.3m) due to adverse discount rates etc. The 10.8% increase in same depot revenues was also a stand out feature.

Forecasts

Current trading has seen Howden Joinery UK depot revenues in the first two periods of the year rise by 9.9%, which is stronger than our prior 8% view. As such, given this, and taking into account the higher expected costs of running the business, we expect the PBT consensus for 2015F to rise to c£210m PBT (from c£200m)- so a likely c5% PBT consensus rise.

Branches and capex

The group opened 30 new UK depots and importantly has stepped up the European openings with two branches opening in Belgium and a plan to open seven additional depots in Northen France in 2015. This is positive. The group though is also flagging a hike in capex (to deliver new ranges of kitchen units) to c£60m per annum over the next few years, and whilst we see this is positive for the longer term, it will detract from short term cashflows (albeit the balance sheet is expected to remain strong even post the buy-back).

Recommendation

We stay at BUY with a 521p TP ahead of the meeting at 8.30am this morning.

[shauney2] 26/2/2015 09:24

N+1 Singer describing 2014 as "excellent":

These prelims confirm that 2014 was an excellent year and supports our buy stance that we had through most of the year. The share buyback confirms the existence of surplus cash even after factoring in a much higher capex outlook as management prepares for further future growth and a slightly more substantial trial on the continent. We have recently moved from Buy to hold based on the rating and the possibility that any more material upgrades might be weighted to the back end of the year given the comps. This view is unchanged but the shares should edge up today.

[shauney2] 26/2/2015 09:23

From the Telegraph morning market report.
Liberum here with the numbers:

(HWDN LN). Results even better than upgraded guidance given in January - PBT up 40% to £189m v Lib E £185m.Full year dividend 8.4p, up 53% and capital return of £70m through share buy-back (we had expected a 2.3p special costing £15m). Beat on capital return due to very strong cash flow; year end net debt was £218m v Lib E £179m.

Statement says that outlook for 2015 as expected, so don't expect consensus to change (other than for impact of buy-back, which should reduce share count by around 2.5%), but year has started well with l-f-l 10% in first eight weeks. Shares on 18x cal15E, falling to 17x 2016E, PT of 470p based on fairly conservative DCF.

[cockneyrebel] 26/2/2015 08:29

Will watch out for broker upgrades - expect they are getting a steer from the co before publishing, seeing they still beat the revised up forecasts today.

All imo

CR

[interceptor2] 26/2/2015 08:26

Good strong set of results with many positives, cash generation seems very strong with Net cash increasing to £217.7m (£140.5m) hence the decent increase in dividend and £70m share buy back which should go down well with the market.

Pleased that as expected 2014 trading conditions have continued into the new financial year.

[phowdo] 26/2/2015 08:15

Think market needs a while to digest. Traders take profits and brokers comment.
Keeping mine.

[mr roper] 26/2/2015 08:07

Strong opening here, CR. 450p already..could be a big day.

[cockneyrebel] 26/2/2015 07:18

Well that's nice - a hike in the divi and a £70m share buy back :-)

23p eps is ahead of the highest broker revised forecasts.

Going forward that share buy-back will increase the eps by about 0.7p a share.

Hard to see how forecast of 24.7p eps for the coming year won't get raised a decent bit imo - not with current sales up 9.9% which is higher than brokers are forecasting for the year.

All imo/dyor etc

CR

[lauders] 25/2/2015 01:20

Agreed CR. Nice ;-) Will be interesting to see if the upward trend continues for the rest of the week now.

[cockneyrebel] 24/2/2015 15:53

Big intraday reversal from -9 to +1

CR

[mr roper] 23/2/2015 08:24

looking good ahead of Thursday's statement...

[lauders] 21/2/2015 00:48

Looking good in the run-up to the results! Nice bit of strength at the end of the day which hopefully bodes well for the week ahead. Good luck all holders.

[dlku] 20/2/2015 08:38

Number of new-build houses falls short despite small increase
Fewer than half the number of homes required were built in 2014, according to government figures




Anyone know how much of the kitchens go to new homes?

[cockneyrebel] 20/2/2015 08:26

A very builder centric week next week:

BVS report Mon, PSN Tues, BDEV and GLE Weds, CWD, HWDN and TPK on Thursday.

CR

[jaws6] 19/2/2015 21:10

AISHAH
Thanks for info.
I have read both Panmure and Goodbody note ,Both looks good for divi talk as you said in post 181.

[taurusthebear] 19/2/2015 14:41

Just consolidating before expected good news, a la GRG. :0)

[allstar4eva] 19/2/2015 14:41

Classic resistance becoming support at 430p?

[cockneyrebel] 18/2/2015 15:58

Keeps showing a bit of leg to those wanting to buy or add with little pull backs from rallies. let's see if it offers these chances next week :-)

CR

[cockneyrebel] 18/2/2015 14:09

Yes Lauders - that large closing trade last night was a seller done imo.

A week of fun to the results now I suspect :-)

All imo

CR

[brahmsnliszt] 18/2/2015 14:06

Topped up on Monday.Ride this baby.