Highway Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[noiseboy] 08/3/2006 15:20

Hmmm, I'm thinking of selling when they give me 80p!

[rivaldo] 08/3/2006 15:19

Karl, I can see your point. But you're hoping for an imaginary perfect world I'm afraid. It would be completely ridiculous if everyone here was to post "Hmmm, I'm thinking of selling" and then "OK, I've sold" - it would completely clog up the threads, besides which 99% of people just haven't got time for such niceties. You sell, hopefully post and explain why (most people don't) and leave others to make up their own mind. Give people credit for a bit of common sense.

And smug is the last thing I am bearing in mind I'd hoped for even/much more from HWY :o((

[noiseboy] 08/3/2006 15:10

Im sure that no-one on the premium BB would go ahead and buy a share willy-nilly just based on a comment on a thread like this. Perhaps on the Free BB yes.

[karldinnel] 08/3/2006 15:02

Hi Rivaldo.

It's just that I get very, very suspicious of people who post on ADVFN backing a share, only then to reveal just a few hours later that they have sold. I would be less suspicious if you had said before you sold that you were thinking of selling. Instead, you used the term "excellent" to describe the results, which suggests (to me at least) that you were backing this one and were not intending to sell. We only got to hear of your sell after you had carried it out.

It's the same with newspaper tipsters who deal in shares that they tip. They always tell you after they've bought or after they've sold, but never when they are about to sell. Funny that.

Also, I'm not so concerned that you may have moved the share price, but perhaps that your early post may have persuaded others to buy in this morning (when the price was higher). Once you had decided that there was quite a bit of bad news in the statement, it would have been nice to have seen an "Oops, sorry. Perhaps I spoke too soon post" instead of the rather smug one that emerged once you'd sold.

I think it is useful to highlight this so that investors here stop being lazy, so that rather than rely on people they don't know from Adam, they may actually do their own research before buying a share.

[noiseboy] 08/3/2006 14:52

shes gaining steam now!

[049balt] 08/3/2006 14:50

I have just sold my 8000 shares, like everyone else i see limited upside from here and a real risk of significant downside.

[oniabsta] 08/3/2006 14:49

bought back shs i sold before results and therefore averaged down. Divi yield now 13.5% on amount invested. will tuck these away.

[noiseboy] 08/3/2006 14:48

cheers oniabsta, seems to be clawing back a bit now

[oniabsta] 08/3/2006 14:46

1 on bid (21k shs) 3 on offer (30k shs)

[peab1] 08/3/2006 14:43

Sold at 76.25p, not where I wanted to sell but agree with many that the results were very good but outlook a little dodgy.

[noiseboy] 08/3/2006 14:39

Anyone got level 2 on this, hows it looking?

[rivaldo] 08/3/2006 14:39

Hi karl, nice to be the centre of debate :o))

You have to admit that (1) the figures were great and (2) the commentary was extremely cautious. On first reading I thought the shares would remain flat or maybe even climb further with the upcoming divi. Instead the price was instantly weak. Peel Hunt then issued a "reduce" rec on HWY. It was obvious that sentiment was weak, investors were focusing on the negatives and the price was following, so I sold. No more to it than that. If the price had held I'd have held too.

At least I say and post what I do honestly. Investing is about opinions - and one of the prime factors in investing is to recognise when you're wrong and do something about it. In addition, hopefully enough people know me from other threads to confirm that I may be accused of being optimistic, but I'm not a "ramper".

Besides, if anyone thinks one post by me is enough to move a market in HWY then they're sadly mistaken!

[smarm] 08/3/2006 14:37

I looked at the numbers and thought great, everything on track. I then read the statement and thought that it was a bit negative. I didn't sell. I then saw the broader market was down, re-read the statement and asked myself what was going to support the price going forward. I then sold. Rivaldo clearly went through similar process but posted his thoughts here; I simply cannot see any problem with that.

As for overexuberantness while they sell up - did you see the price around the time of his posts? No.

My only puzzle is why my sell isn't showing on the trades list.

S

[karldinnel] 08/3/2006 14:17

Look. I've nothing personal against Rivaldo. And I say good for him. He clearly knows what he's doing. Someone else pointed out the contradiction between his two posts, anyway, before I elaborated on it. I was just pointing out that investors here need to be careful of getting carried away.

To me, it's very simple. If you have a bunch of mugs (and many bulletin board readers are, I'm afraid) who will believe anything they read, then some people will think why not make use of that.

Yes, the divi looks good, and it is well covered by earnings that have seen excellent growth. But we all knew that the divi was going to be good (and earnings too) beforehand - management had stated as much in the past! So, some clever people can quickly look through the results, decide that the stuff about outlook and management looks bad and choose to get out. They then repeat the good facts (which we've already known about for a while) and everyone gets overexuberant, while they sell up. Simple. My message is that you lot need to watch out for it!!

[siskinbird] 08/3/2006 14:07

I'm not sure that Rivaldo deserves this. He did say in post 344 that he'd had second thoughts. That's allowed isn't it? Most posters were very excited about the results before the market opened, and indeed until the price started diving.

[karldinnel] 08/3/2006 13:53

Here's the original post:

"Fantastic results:
ADVFN competitor.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200603080700574539Z.html

An even bigger divi than promised, 3.7p as opposed to 3.4p!

And EPS in at 9.7p, way better than the top forecast and the consensus of 8.2p.

The narrative is cautious in the right way, but the results belie the caution. Excellent."

Does a post like that suggest that Rivaldo was about to sell his shares? I don't think so, especially since he bigs up the divi!

He only mentioned his concerns about management leaving, etc AFTER he had sold his shares.

And Rivaldo's first post today looks like it did its job. The very next post (by another author) states that the shares should go up to 90p. If you were going to sell your shares, wouldn't you want everyone else to be buying in in order to keep the price up as you sell?

I don't want to get into a tit-for-tat here. But I've seen posts like these on results days many, many times before.

[smarm] 08/3/2006 13:25

That's unfair. Rivaldo didn't ramp it, he told it as it is - good figures, cautious outlook and on that basis he decided to sell. What's wrong with that?

S

[karldinnel] 08/3/2006 13:22

Yes. It's called ramping. But anyone who trusts what anyone else says on a bulletin board deserves all they get, IMO.

[gorse] 08/3/2006 13:19

Rivaldo at 7.39am:

"Fantastic results:
ADVFN competitor.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200603080700574539Z.html

An even bigger divi than promised, 3.7p as opposed to 3.4p!

And EPS in at 9.7p, way better than the top forecast and the consensus of 8.2p.

The narrative is cautious in the right way, but the results belie the caution. Excellent."

So what did Rivaldo do by noon:

He sold the lot!

[rob1914] 08/3/2006 13:14

think we have seen the bottom of the fall back now and there are a few strong buys (100k, 25k) coming through now - only 150k more sells than buys

[049balt] 08/3/2006 11:50

some good news must have come from somewhere i guess

[rob1914] 08/3/2006 11:48

looks like people buying back in already......moving share price back up towards 80p

[rivaldo] 08/3/2006 11:39

Yep, the numbers were great, but the outlook, director resignations etc were enough to give me second thoughts so I sold too. Best to be safe when you've got 40% or so profits to protect tax-free in the old ISA.

Good luck all, I might be back if the outlook changes..

[burlington] 08/3/2006 11:29

HWY @ .74!! Yes please I'll have a few of them.