Heritage Oil Share Discussion Threads

[muscletrade] 28/4/2014 13:12

@scrambled, thanks for your reply and information.. we can speculate all we like i suppose but there can be little doubt that "possible short term pre payments notwithstanding" the longer no oil is flowing through the pipe the greater the chance that production will be affected.

HOIL could easily clarify how they see the situation....or do we have to wait to read all about it from some third party.

I expect all will be clear on wednesday, hmmmmmmm.

And while we are at it why do we have to be informed by RBC that HOIL are reporting on Wednesday? If you check the HOIL investor relations schedule of events it reads

"FINANCIAL CALENDAR

There are currently no events scheduled".

it is this type of shoddy information flow that HOIL should be working to put right if it wants to be taken seriously.

They had better blow the doors off Wednesday.

[2hoggy] 28/4/2014 13:05

As I remember reading the leak on the pipe is below water and that is the reason it is taking so long to fix.

[dukedosh] 28/4/2014 13:03

The pipe line to the terminal isn't the problem, it's the sea terminal that was leaking which is Shell's responsibility as terminal operator. The problem should be solved soon as there's two liftings due in May that were re-scheduled from April, so we should expect the force majeure to be lifted quite soon.

[scrambled eggmann] 28/4/2014 12:49

OML30 is the operator and only owns the section of pipe running to the terminal. Shell are the owners of the terminal and the final section of pipe (as I recall). HOIL will probably have a marketing agreement with Shell to sell the oil via this terminal. HOIL/NNPC do not sell directly. Shell have declared Force Majeur to their customers but the sales agreement with OML30 (HOIL/NNPC) may allow for them to continue to receive payments even though no oil is sold.

This is exactly the situation with Mart and AGIP.

So Shell's terminal being down is the "situation" that will cause the overall production to be lower but it does not necessarily mean that we receive nothing during the shutdown.

[scrambled eggmann] 28/4/2014 10:53

I think the Shell situation will result in a lower average production as even if we get paid for oil that we do not ship due to Shells shutdown (Mart has such an arrangement with AGIP) then when the terminal reopens we have to make up the shortfall. So unless we get production upto 65K BOPD for the remainder of the year then the production will likely be at the lower end of the forecast.

The arbitration result must be due any time too.

[craig t2] 28/4/2014 10:44

There is the tax status to come. And hopefully an increase in production. The shell drama should have minimal effect. Will be played upon of course.

[chopsy] 27/4/2014 22:23

What is exactly is a lifting? Is it filling up a tanker from storage facilities at the export port? TIA

[rjcdc] 27/4/2014 21:55

Muscle... Not sure what the full impact is and as it's been going on for a month or so it might explain the dip in share price early April.. Have been trying to work out what the storage capacity is at oml30 but to no avail, or whether there are alternative routes.... There may be.

Also, heritage got 3 liftings away before mid feb and so were ahead of the 1 per month target so that should help...

Would have thought the impact would have been felt by now but will be interesting to see how it currently stands.

[dukedosh] 27/4/2014 19:12

For those interested, here's Petrofrontier Corp's year end 2013 financial and operating results via sedar.

[muscletrade] 27/4/2014 16:45

At least someone(RBC) is concerned of the implications of the Forcados problems.
Shut in since 4th March (and as of Friday still down) and not a single word from HOIL management. Not sure about anyone else but I am ticked off.

[dukedosh] 26/4/2014 11:50

This note from RBC yesterday:
Heritage is scheduled to publish its FY13 results on Wednesday. Management indicated previously that it generated revenues of ~$465m and ended 2013 with cash-in-hand of $190m. We expect management to allocate the bulk of any conference call to Nigerian taxes, OML30 development plans, the rewriting of its balance sheet in H1/14, and the possibility of a maiden dividend. Management's 2014 production guidance is 16-21,000b/d; following the shut-in of Shell's Forcados Terminal our forecast is at the lower end of this range.

[rjcdc] 26/4/2014 06:36

Or not...

hxxp://newtelegraphonline.com/shells-3bn-assets-sale-winners-emerge-april-30/

[rjcdc] 26/4/2014 06:23

Looks like shoreline are going for oml 24

hxxp://www.tribune.com.ng/news/top-stories/item/3794-5bn-oil-blocks-sale-efcc-icpc-foreign-govts-to-scrutinise-bidders/3794-5bn-oil-blocks-sale-efcc-icpc-foreign-govts-to-scrutinise-bidders

[cumnor] 23/4/2014 20:12

A few lambs being fleeced today by the mms as they try to profit on their paltry few shares. Amusing. Probably lowest volume for a long time.

[cfro] 23/4/2014 15:44

I have been buying in today for the first time.

The investment case here is strong imo. OK there are clear risks involved when it comes to operating in Nigeria but that is more than factured in to the share price which currently trades on a forward pe of less than 5.

No reason why they should not now ramp up the activities and even if the profit estimates are anywhere near hit, we should see a big re-rating in the share price imo.

From a charting perspective, the shares appear to now be in a nice uptrend having broken clearly out of a trading and consolidation range.

The title of this bb is "-The upward movement has commenced!" and that is exactly why i have now bought in to the HOIL story. :0)

[superbarnet] 23/4/2014 15:26

Dire performance today sadly.

[rjcdc] 23/4/2014 12:01

I think HOil should be worth £3.50 + today but to get to the likes of £6 I think they need one of the other assets to start paying its way. A good drill or two in Tanzania or PNG would lessen the dependency of Nigeria... Although saying that, oml30 does seem to be doing ok.

Low volume today....

[tongosti] 23/4/2014 11:29

2015 EPS should be about 90p (if all goes well). on your 10x multiple, then you should probably sell at about £9. one thing is certain: hoil is way undervalued. if crude prices stay around the $100 mark; there is no a major market correction; and hoil meet their own targets, then i think it is safe to assume that the share price will be a multiple of today's levels in the next couple of years or so. mind you, if (i don't think that will happen but in the off chance) we get the arbitration money, then i can see an immediate 150p lift off only one the back of that one. enjoy the ride everyone.

[fxdealer3] 23/4/2014 09:21

I will sell at £6 + within 18 months ...very happy holding and very much undervlaued at present levels compared to £2+ b peers within less potential and reserves

on 2015 eps alone this is worth £6+

Heritage Oil Forecasts
Year Ending Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
31-Dec-14 423.88 219.50 43.94p 6.1 0.1 +67% n/a 0.0%
31-Dec-15 614.12 301.43 61.59p 4.3 0.1 +40% n/a 0.0%


fx

[canigou2] 22/4/2014 17:25

The share price action indicates the finals will please!

(A maiden divi would please a lot .. is it possible?)

[proj] 22/4/2014 17:05

this'll test 300p before finals

[rjcdc] 22/4/2014 13:43

Positive day so far.... Five more days of this would be nice..

[superbarnet] 22/4/2014 11:08

Will start planning!