Heritage Oil Share Discussion Threads

[scrambled eggmann] 07/5/2014 17:23

If there is a market correction, then HOIL is a pretty good place to park your money. Guaranteed 2% upside, almost guaranteed downside protection and the slim possibility of a better offer.

If other stocks become cheap then one could always sell the HOILs to take advantage.

[fangorn2] 07/5/2014 17:17

Scrambled,

Found them. Cheers.
Had to search for them on TDPro as Investegate doesn't cover them.

Certainly will be keeping an eye on Hoil after selling similarly a week or so ago.

[scrambled eggmann] 07/5/2014 17:14

I think if I had 28 million shares from who knows when, and rode them down to 120 pence twice and 145 pence a couple of times, I think I would take the 314 pence and run!

They left a small rump for themselves of just over 1% for any future upside!

[tburley] 07/5/2014 17:14

Eggmann, I agree with you 100%. For the record, I sold my entire holding last week and decided on reflection is was worth holding so bought back in yesterday.

[scrambled eggmann] 07/5/2014 17:11

Yes it is the 8.3 ones which appear on ADVFN but not on Investegate.

[fangorn2] 07/5/2014 17:10

Double post.

[scrambled eggmann] 07/5/2014 17:07

Fangorn - It is to be expected that on the first day some holders will exit. The RNS's show both buying and selling. GAMCO bought 5 million, Alpine bought 5 million. So there are new guys who either want a 2% return or think they may get something better (but small chance of that).

My point on the Arab is that the Sheiks position is the opening shot and he may raise it if he does not get acceptance or even walk away. However with a year end exit rate of ~70,000 BOPD predicted by HOIL (23,000 BOPD) and the resultant increasing cashflow, he is effectively getting the company free. The analysts for these funds will be able to see the same as us simple PI's - HOIL will be worth more in the future with its production and cashflow than this offer.

[fangorn2] 07/5/2014 16:28

Scrambled.

However those shares went somewhere and most of the RNS's are from new holders at the 1%-2% level. They are II's and funds and so technically he is not wrong.

Are you talking about the 8.3 declarations? The ones that don't appear on the RNS list for Hoil on a standard Investegate search?

I'd be more concerned about a Major II selling from 8% down to 1.3% than speculative purchases by various II's of 1-2% odd.Cant be that much trading as surely we'd be rising above the 320p - ie market is not anticipating a higher payout materialising.

Does an Arab accept the first offer he receives when doing business? Never. Also are we a distressed business? No.


Eh - It's an Arab making the offer, which has been accepted by Buckingham and cohorts to the tune of 35% of equity.

We definitely aren't a distressed business that's for sure.

It's also via a scheme of arrangement of which I have had bad experiences. eg Encore. Seems to result in lower takeover prices being secured.

Interesting times as I perceive the M&A is only just starting Oil sector side.

[scrambled eggmann] 07/5/2014 16:04

The major holder after TB was Capital and they reduced on the RNS day, so the existing big holders have certainly not been adding. They cleared out on the first day hence the high volume on that day. Those 28 millon shares from Capital were not bought by PI's.

However those shares went somewhere and most of the RNS's are from new holders at the 1%-2% level. They are II's and funds and so technically he is not wrong. I think there is now a wider base of holders.

Again Mirqab cannot legally buy on their own behalf without declaring. I would guess they will not get the votes with their current offer.

Does an Arab accept the first offer he receives when doing business? Never. Also are we a distressed business? No.

[fangorn2] 07/5/2014 15:56

Scrambled.
Wont the big market makers be buying on their behalf? All declared of course as is usually the case.

Given there is unlikely to be a counter as Buckingham/Management have signed over their collective 35% dont see the big issue..

Have you seen any RNS's though of II's increasing their holdings as claimed. I've not seen any so wondered whether my alerts were not working/Investegate feed was malfunctioning.

Tburley said II's are increasing their stakes -check the RNS

Which I have done...and cannot see any II's increasing. Reducing however, yes.

[scrambled eggmann] 07/5/2014 15:51

Fangorn - Mirqab will not be buying as otherwise they have to declare their holding and cannot conceal it (legally anyway) by buying shares via multiple fronts. In any case the vote will exclude their holding so unless their family and friends are the ones buying (which could be the case rather than Mirqab directly) then they still have to get 75% of the independent shareholders vote.

[fangorn2] 07/5/2014 15:24

Tburley,

Here are the Holding in Company RNS's

6th May Capital reduces through 8%,7%,6%etc etc to 1.3913%




Can't see any other HOLDINGS RNS's prior to Dec 2013


The only person BUYING surely is AL Mirqab Capital SPC from all those selling? (ie to whichever Market Makers are working on Al MirQab's behalf)

So please link these RNS's where you see II's are increasing their holdings as you say as it seems I am looking in the incorrect place.

I'm using this link btw - News for HOIL




Do you still own HOIL shares? If not why are you still posting here?

Non sequitur surely. What has that to do with me querying your claim that II's are adding. Only RNS's I've seen say the contrary so perhaps I've missed some.

[scrambled eggmann] 07/5/2014 14:35

Those buing on CFD must have a strategy as they must have compared their CFD financing cost vs the expected 2.5% takeover gain. Must be slim pickings as they could get a 5% divi on their money elsewhere, unless they think something else may happen.

[tburley] 07/5/2014 14:08

Fanghorn, read the RNS's. Some II's are still buying and someone is obviously selling. Do you still own HOIL shares? If not why are you still posting here?

[fangorn2] 06/5/2014 19:38

I'm not holding my breath I'm just pointing out that a certain 1.5% return with a potentially greater upside is attractive.

Not that attractive - you need to buy in size to make it worthwhile.
And the fact HOIL isn't surging above the offer price implies they aren't buying in size.

The II's buying obviously agree and like the risk/reward.

Which II's are these?

All I see is one II offloading? And offloading a significant amount at that...

[tburley] 06/5/2014 19:36

I'm not holding my breath I'm just pointing out that a certain 1.5% return with a potentially greater upside is attractive. The II's buying obviously agree and like the risk/reward.

[fangorn2] 06/5/2014 19:22

If you also look at the 8.3 filings it looks like several II's are increasing their positions.

Threshold(s) that is/are crossed or reached:(vi, vii)
8%,7%,6%,5%,4%,3%

Capital Grp reducing though it seems...through several thresholds to 1.391%

If the 320p bid is blocked then it is likely a sweetened offer will be made.

Don't hold your breath. With 35% of equity in bag already, and note, its via the dreaded scheme of arrangement, all over bar the shouting imv.

Good luck however.

[zingaro] 06/5/2014 19:12

Perhaps its a target for sharia compliant finance for the interim period

[tburley] 06/5/2014 19:12

Why would you not buy and receive a 1.5% return for holding for 6 months? For these institutions that is a much better return than cash. If you also look at the 8.3 filings it looks like several II's are increasing their positions. If the 320p bid is blocked then it is likely a sweetened offer will be made. I'm happy to hold for the time being and see what happens.

[2hoggy] 06/5/2014 18:16

Is this the purchaser buying the shares from large sellers divesting their shares or is it some thing more suspcicious?

Maybe some one knows,any suggestions?

[kazz] 06/5/2014 17:34

Yep, a 750,000 buy after close. Does seem strange.

[brouwpa] 06/5/2014 15:36

I cannot believe they are buying to get another 5p in September! Is something going on in the background?

[farmsted] 06/5/2014 14:36

Surprised to see the large number of buyers when we have been shafted, I will wait if only to get another 5p