Hargreaves Services Share Discussion Threads

[red ninja] 14/1/2023 15:04

I think it ok for the HL website to quote the last results p/e as that it is consistent across companies, but it would have made more sense for Mr Kempton to have quoted the company broker's p/e estimate for this year or quoted both.

[harrogate] 14/1/2023 07:19

So they are both wrong then ?

[red ninja] 13/1/2023 22:29

If you base it on last years earnings at £1 you would get 4. If you base it on this years earning estimates you get 6.

Hargreaves Lansdown have 4 on their website

[harrogate] 13/1/2023 17:33

Not sure where he gets a PE of 4 from. Now 6. Also how does he know that the German JV is trading ahead of expectations ?

[red ninja] 13/1/2023 17:01

[...]

Downing Strategic Micro Cap. I.T. December factsheet :-

Hargreaves Services (+14.5%) delivered a trading update and reported that the board anticipates reporting a strong set of results, with both revenue and profit before tax expected to be higher than the same period the year prior. Increased activity on the HS2 contract has benefitted the Services business, the Land division completed another sale at Blindwells, and while trading conditions within Germany have softened, the joint venture has continued to perform well. We continue to see significant unrealised value in the shares and expect that the shares to re-rate upon a return of capital from the German associate. While difficult to predict when this will be, the softening of market conditions there ought to generate the working capital reversal we anticipate.

[red ninja] 13/1/2023 16:58

I have added to my holding in Hargreaves Services (HSP) where the current value of the group seems completely overlooked and the current P/E of 4 does not reflect the potential. Delivering project services for material handling, mechanical and electrical engineering, bulk earth moving and land restoration, higher revenue and profit are predicted for the current period in all three business segments.

The services business for HS2 is performing well, more building land has been sold adding to the company cash, now at £18m, while the German engineering joint venture results are ahead of expectations, albeit hard to forecast.

The exciting potential for the group is the wind farm planning permissions in Scotland, of such a scale as to represent nearly 1% of total UK requirement. A 30-year lease is negotiated for a significant flexible royalty income – or the project could be sold off. Harwood, the small-cap fund manager run by Christopher Mills, an expert at realising value, holds 28% and one of his sons is on the board.

[solarno lopez] 13/1/2023 15:03

I see David Kempton has also added to his holding believing the value has been overlooked.

He also notes their exciting wind farm project in Scotland

[davebowler] 09/1/2023 15:43

Mentioned by Chris Mills (NAS manager )favourably at 30 mins

[smithie6] 03/1/2023 09:56

nice to see it bouncing back.

[clocktower] 03/1/2023 09:26

As it heads towards 25 Jan it could well top the 430p by a long way imo.

[smithie6] 22/12/2022 12:36

uf...the price clearly didn't want to stay at 430p !

:-(

[red ninja] 21/12/2022 12:12

HSP have said they have a good chance of winning the lower Thames crossing contract.

“There’s some preliminary work that will take place in 2024, assuming the successful grant of a DCO but then the main works will really kick off in earnest in early 2025 leading to a road opening date of 2029/2030.” (see link below)



Thus if it goes ahead on time we may see an announcement next year although there has to be a chance it will be delayed to spare government finances.

[muckshifter] 21/12/2022 11:37

No Smithie, I would have thought it is mostly dependent on the main contractors programme and how tightly Blackwell are committed to that programme, as there may well be conflicts of interest there.

[smithie6] 19/12/2022 13:18

thanks

you have a view as to how much profit the HS2 work might give HSP in "the current financial year" ?

You know if the co. broker has given an estimate or if a guestimate can be made from the size of the equipt. lease debt ?

[muckshifter] 19/12/2022 09:27

Morning Smithie, The short answer is I would expect them to make a profit of 10 - 12 million over the contract period. But the good news from your perspective is that it is more likely that they exceed that than suffer a reduction.

The type of contract I'm sure they are on, has several forms with the client deciding which form suits them best. Usually it is a target cost contract, with penalties and bonuses which come to light near to contract completion. In the meantime contractors are paid their costs plus the percentage agreed precontract, ie. a nice regular profit for at least 80% of the contract period.

However, the reason I'm saying that the profit is more likely to go up than down, is that government bodies almost never get things right in terms of contract terms, design, changing their minds during a contract, giving way to changes advocated by local pressure groups, etc. You only have to look at the past to see that a doubling of the client's cost on a major project is almost the norm, and I remember well a road project where the contractors final account was settled at more than three times their tender price accepted by the DOT. The only significant danger would be if Blackwell were caught doing something naughty, and again the government has always been hopeless at spotting bad behaviour.

Blackwell need a flow of this sort of contract as they don't really have any competition in the UK market for jobs of this size, imo, and Brexit just about insures them against competition from the EU.

[smithie6] 16/12/2022 17:05

how many people answered ?
0.
:-(


ANSWER
to remove/reduce the % of carbon in a furnace with molten steel I think that you add oxygen.
Carbon combines with it to make CO2 which is released as a gas.
(I would not volunteer to be involved in adding oxygen to liquid steel at over 1000C, sounds a bit risky to me !, but I guess it is done with humans at a safe distance (>1000C + oxygen is a recipe of course for fire if any mistake is made imo)
& you can't stay alive in CO2 so you don't want to be too close !

[smithie6] 16/12/2022 12:49

a little test of people's knowledge about pig iron & steel, je je
-----

with molten steel in a furnace how does one reduce the % of carbon if it is higher than you want/need ?

(adding carbon to iron gives you steel, a higher carbon % gives you a harder more rigid steel, but not so good for bending or pressing, & more brittle & more likely to gets cracks)

[smithie6] 15/12/2022 10:16

muckshifter
You there ?

You have any info/opinion about the profit for HSP from the HS2 work ?

(can guestimates be made from the equipment leasing debt ?)

Or is it given in some broker's report/analysis ?

[smithie6] 14/12/2022 17:48

bit of a beast this week !!

....up again today and closed the day at a high ( and a buy trade of £10.4 k of shares @£4.37/share minutes before the end of the day)

[smithie6] 14/12/2022 14:40

the sh. price movement is so strong this week

& the mix of buy trades is weighted to trades of over £4k per trade, that it looks imo like many of the buys are not by normal PIs (who more usually spend £1-£3k per trade)

I have to wonder if some ppl know something !

hmmmmm.

-----

or has some tipster written a good analysis which shows it is worth much more than the current price & that is producing buyers ?

(many of us long term followers/holders believed it was worth much more, but the mkt wasn't interested, now it seems to be)

[smithie6] 13/12/2022 18:01

late reported buy

7000 @ 430p
@ 16:10

that is what helped drive the price up quickly from 415p to 430p to buy, just after the step up to 415p

----
big imbalance between buys & sells
as in previous days
100k bt vs 24k sold

(yesterday 25k bt vs 16k sold
7 Dec. 65k bt vs 15k sold.
6 Dec. 99k bt vs 32k sold
5 Dec 79k bt vs 10k sold)

...I guess that was part of the push behind the price jump today, shortage of sellers vs buyers. (& today's queue of buyers caused by ???!)

-----
can anyone explain the logic behind the big difference between the total number of shares bt & shares sold ?

the total difference added up over the last week & this week is "big"

Does it mean the MM is short of shares & needs to buy ?

[smithie6] 13/12/2022 16:29

still cheap imo

p/e has risen to about 6 now !!!
6 !!

(6x 70p= 420p)
or 17% return. (1/6)
======

vol. bt . 93k shares
vol sold 20k shares

has the MM sold shares he hasn't got (very risky) !! or will we see a late reported big sell trade ??

[smithie6] 13/12/2022 16:20

..you don't think its my followers buying ??!!

(je je !!, if only)

[rimau1] 13/12/2022 16:18

This is sharply higher, either press tip, good news on the way or private equity sniffing around?

[smithie6] 13/12/2022 12:45

interesting
last year the publication of the H1 2021 results caused the sh price to go from £4 to £5

(on this advfn website you can view a chart for 1st January 2021 to 28 Feb. '21 to see that step rise due to the publication of H1 2021 results)

& the co. has said that H1 2022 results are better than H1 in 2021.

RNS. 6 Dec. '22
"The Board anticipates reporting a strong set of results for the period, with both revenue and profit before tax expected to be higher than in the comparative period"