Hargreaves Services Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 08/12/2022 10:03

btw
if there was a vote to accept/reject an offer for the whole company or for the JV, what % of votes are needed for the offer to be accepted ?

>50% of voters or > 75% of voters ?
or
is it a % of the existing votes not just those that vote ?

[clocktower] 08/12/2022 09:09

Unless something drastic occurs C Tiger - I cannot envisage you getting stock anywhere near 300p again.

[castleford tiger] 08/12/2022 08:17

AGAIN

This all backs up what we all know.

The shares are very cheap with a breakup of at least 600p

A NAV slightly above this.
Good dividends......and a good chance of 20/50% capital uplift.

I remain a buyer every-time it gets close to that silly 300p mark

tiger

[smithie6] 07/12/2022 21:57

oops
my mistake
just checked & you are right, it was C.Mills that said it.

[gargoyle2] 07/12/2022 19:40

It wasn't Paul Hill saying break up value over 6 quid, it was Christopher Mills, who runs Harwood Capital which owns 28% of HSP.

[smithie6] 07/12/2022 18:48

..there wasn't any debate with C.Mills about the value of the different parts imo, just P.Hill saying 'break up value over £6' & that the person from Downing fund was also a fan of HSP.

I'm against selling the German JV. I would rather it just keeps clocking up the profits each year ! :-)
(& in time moving to passing 86% of that PAT up to HSP. :-))) & paying back the loans from HSP :-) ; HSP passing more of that excess cash back to shareholders :-) )

The dirs of the German JV have imo done a fantastic job.
be illogical to cut them adrift phps
(maybe instead invite them to help run the UK Govt !!)
(the recycling part was added for 1€ out of administration if I remember correctly but is now turned around & profitable.
The carbon crushing facility was created & was at break-even turnover (100k tonnes/yr) when I last looked/heard, hopefully that can start getting higher tonnage throughput & hence start producing a return on the investment. Big tonnage, takes time to grow. (400k tonnes/yr capacity !, big stuff).

The text from the bod about the JV over the past years has gone from
- almost silence
- some info but 'we will probably sell it'
- more info & 'it is doing very well, & more changes/improvements are underway so 'we will keep it'

- 'improvements have made the JV more efficient & profitable'

....at present there is no intention to sell it imo (in any case one of the first/next steps will imo be for HSP to recoup the money lent to the JV).

although HSP perhaps gets a good % return on the money lent (which should/might have gone up with the recent increase in % rates)

----
'if' Harwood ever were to push for selling the JV they would surely want phps 3 years of fairly stable turnover & profit & for the return from investments like the carbon crusher to be very visible in the results.
imo we are not in that position/situation
---

the selling price for the JV would also be higher imo when the interest rate is lower (since any buyer might need some loans to part fund the acquisition)....&; perhaps a 24 month wait (or longer ?) for interest rates to reduce

-----

btw the cash generation from the JV before depreciation & before tax is quite eyewatering !

[rimau1] 07/12/2022 17:27

ST has tipped this in the past but he is on holidays until the new year. As we all know this moves quickly/is illiquid and volatile. Value always outs in the end and i see the opaque black box that is the German JV as a good thing. It allows those willing to back it to buy stock on the cheap because we are unfairly discounted because if it. I posted here maybe a year ago that the German JV should be sold as its worth in excess of €100m. So if the sum-of-the-parts debate has come up again in the vox markets interview then great.

[smithie6] 07/12/2022 15:55

has Simon Thomson of Inv. Chr. also tipped this in the past, phps he might give it a mention again this week ?.

definitely popular today. & still cheap imo.

divi of ~20p (~6% yield) & well covered by eps of ~70p.
& backed up by high NTAV/share.

[gargoyle2] 07/12/2022 15:31

hxxps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/media/638f0946dc78c879344f238e/?context=/series/q-and-a

About 29 minutes in -- "break up value over 6 quid"

[clocktower] 07/12/2022 12:02

Decent support today but volumes sliding again but as long as it creeps up slowly that is all that can be expected until after the results I guess.

[clocktower] 07/12/2022 12:02

double post error,

[clocktower] 06/12/2022 16:37

Disappointing finish to the day but with the market down I guess it drags the best of them with it.

[smithie6] 06/12/2022 14:40

But you see the difference today in the buy volume to the sell volume ?

[clocktower] 06/12/2022 14:34

With net asset value well over £5.00 and the earnings looking very good just goes to show how undervalued the stock is imo.

Not sure about any big sell S6 - I doubt it till we get near asset value.

[smithie6] 06/12/2022 14:31

I better have some extra salmon & omega 3 if I'm going to last until 2924 !

;-)

------

But I agree with your post.

I guess it is difficult to predict the future turnover & profit of the German JV since I don't think it has much in the way of long term contracts. And the price of zinc & pig iron are always changing so no one would sign up a contract for say 5 years at a price fixed at the start.

[harrogate] 06/12/2022 14:17

Th fact that we have so little understanding about what is actually happening here - especially in Germany - despite a decent amount of background knowledge of the company I think points to why we languish on 5 x an EPS figure we are nailed on to make. I think clarity around what Germany looks like in a normal year, when how and what cash will be coming back from there to us and what 2924 might be like should help us get moving again.

[smithie6] 06/12/2022 14:15

Btw
Notable big difference between buy & sell volumes, inferring imo there is a big sell order being filled in the background.

[smithie6] 06/12/2022 14:13

(Official eps of 50p vs adjusted eps of 71p,
from 2 yrs ago.

existing old accounts give the info

Due to
- goodwill write down on disposal of coal businesses
- a loss on legacy civil contracts)

[harrogate] 06/12/2022 14:04

No pay wall if you want I can email it to you. Let me know

[smithie6] 06/12/2022 14:01

...behind a pay wall I think.

(The info for past yrs is in the accounts, I'm just too lazy to look right now, & the Spain-Morocco game is in an hour
....it's a full day, already, je je !)

[harrogate] 06/12/2022 13:48

The broker note will clarify the movements in EPS from 20 - 23 between the various units.

[smithie6] 06/12/2022 13:39

I guess the 50p & 70p basic & adjusted eps of the year before that, with the 113.8p last year gives variation of eps; & some investors might prefer a steady increase. (the cause of the difference between 50p & 70p 2 years ago, I want to look & remind myself what that was for).

[castleford tiger] 06/12/2022 13:00

first half last time was
pbt 10.4 ....full year........... 32.7 so a 2/3 rd split second half.
EPS was 31p ...........and full year 113.8p

This year i expect the weighting to be the other way round.
A stronger first half compared to the second half