Hargreaves Services Share Discussion Threads

[harrogate] 12/10/2022 16:54

There are clearly many moving parts here and lots of questions. Hopefully some of these will be answered at the time of the AGM. It is not surprising we are struggling in this vacuum. On land values and impact on NAV. I am pretty sure the land is in the balance sheet at cost.

[smithie6] 12/10/2022 16:43

Tiger
"Net Assets per Share 563p ( probably now over 600p)"

That might be the last company reported NAV but it will now be lower imo due to the fall in the price of pig iron & higher interest rates reducing imo the value of the existing land assets. (higher interest rates (& household energy bills & general inflation ) reduces the sale prices for new houses which reduces the sale prices for building plots).

Divi
Most of the divi comes from the German JV.
Its main profit producers are sales of pig iron & zinc from its recycling processes. The selling prices for those have fallen. The pig iron price has halved.
So, I think everyone expects the profit of the German JV on a weekly current basis to now be notably lower.
And hence that the divi from the JV will fall. And hence the divi yield for HSP shares.

The probability that the EU will force changes to the German 200.000 million € support to industry (& the steel sector, steel users, high energy users...) also creates a risk in the eyes of many investors.
And if German energy prices stay high for years will the German Govt be willing to subsidise the German steel production sector for years (& every other high energy consumption sector ?) ? (& how would that go down with USA steel sector etc)

[castleford tiger] 12/10/2022 16:40

12500 and 2 lots of 5000 bought into nominee
so 22500 my mistake

[daisylove] 12/10/2022 15:15

Hmmm. The largest trade I can see today is £39k worth.
Anyway, I wonder if some have sold their houses to put into this.
Well underwater here as ever but whenever I've traded down on a stock it never seems to come back.

[castleford tiger] 12/10/2022 13:55

Net Assets per Share 563p ( probably now over 600p)

Dividend close to 6%

No debt.

Bought another 25000 today

Tiger

[red ninja] 12/10/2022 13:04

General loss of market confidence.

[beeks of arabia] 12/10/2022 12:58

Wow. Battered. Certainly didnt expect to see this back at 3 quid.

[red ninja] 12/10/2022 11:56

Zinc sales are 50% hedged at $3,100 through to the end of May 2023.

[smithie6] 11/10/2022 10:43

Anyone monitoring the prices for pig iron & zinc ?

Pig iron has roughly halved in price I think , over the last X months, (reducing the profit of the German subsidiary) while I don't know what the zinc price has done.

[smithie6] 03/10/2022 16:36

high speed train lines

interesting that Britain probably already invested billions in high speed train lines, but has seen no return at all from that investment

since the lines were built in .....Spain !!
and 50% funded I believe by the EU, of which the UK was one of the few nett contributors, so the UK paid a good part of that 50%.

so apparently Spain now has the 2nd highest number of km of high speed train lines in the world, second only to China I think

but since the EU is a bit nuts, Spain apparently can not really afford to use the high speed train lines because almost all its cities do not have populations big enough to provide enough users.

take famous cities like Seville, the population is really quite small.

And since the distances in Spain are so big very few people need to go to other distant cities in other regions, almost everything for their life happens in their own region.

The exception is the Barcelona-Madrid train line which has a fair amount of traffic for business users and tourists.

[castleford tiger] 30/9/2022 18:39

ADDED 10000 more at 345p

[daisylove] 29/9/2022 11:22

Very reluctant to catch a falling knife atm. Where will it all end?!

[castleford tiger] 28/9/2022 17:29

as for low p/e ratios

look at MFX made 2p in 6 months
forecast is 4.8p in the year and the price is 9p

P/E of 2

Net worth 27 m v market cap of 10 m

Madness
tiger

[castleford tiger] 28/9/2022 17:28

only me buying !!
352 p today i got another batch

[smithie6] 28/9/2022 16:41

"Current year forecasts...."

But those forecasts are from before Rus stopping many gas supplies to Germany
& before Nordstream pipes apparently getting blown up yesterday under the Baltic.

HSP needs German steel production to be stable. And with tolerable energy prices. Very high user of energy.

The chart indicates imo that some big holders have been selling/reducing.

[daisylove] 28/9/2022 15:08

A truism from me: Whatever stock you buy and whenever you buy it - something will drive it lower.....

[gargoyle2] 28/9/2022 14:08

If current year forecasts are anywhere near accurate, we're looking at a current year PE of around 5.4 and a dividend yield of 6%.

[smithie6] 28/9/2022 11:43

Hmmm

Not exactly sure what is/was meant by the following part

"....our balance sheet strength will serve the Group well in a period of challenging global economic outlook."

[redface] 28/9/2022 11:18

Whole market is suffering. Worth a look at the last results statement on 27th July:

Commenting on the preliminary results, Chairman Roger McDowell said: "The Board has a clear, strategic investment proposition from which to create, deliver and realise shareholder value. These results, which include the highest level of profit recorded in seven years, illustrate the Group's agility in taking advantage of market conditions whilst also delivering strong, underlying and sustainable profits. The Board is alive to current economic issues and our balance sheet strength will serve the Group well in a period of challenging global economic outlook."

[beeks of arabia] 28/9/2022 10:47

head and shoulders certainly in play

[smithie6] 28/9/2022 10:41

Share price very weak recently.

Any views as to what is causing that/this ?
...phps rising interest rate being seen as reducing the value of the land assets ??

[smithie6] 26/9/2022 12:26

"In June 2022, steel producers’ margins were 25% lower than the 2018-2019 average, according to World Steel Dynamics. Due to this, many companies are suspending their capacities or reducing production, including ArcelorMittal and Salzgitter in Germany."

[smithie6] 26/9/2022 10:41

1) anyone know how steel production (& consumption) is going these last 12 months in Germany ?

2) has the German Govt been subsidising energy costs to steel producers ?

----

Update
Looks like steel production (hot rolled) in Germany was down ~ 5% vs prior year for first 6-7 months
But producers' margin was apparently down 25% & hence some producers are turning off some capacity.

----
Will/has Europe increased imports from countries with cheaper energy (USA) ?
(But with longer delivery times due to the shipping, & the cost of shipping across the Atlantic)

[castleford tiger] 26/9/2022 08:42

Purchased all with some in the 392 region