Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bomfin] 28/9/2021 12:41

Could have as much as 30,000 boepd Nat gas production not hedged in 2nd half 2021 and as much as 50,000 bopd not hedged in 2nd half 2021. They could be making £6 million a day

[bomfin] 28/9/2021 12:39

They can make £7 billion profit before having to pay taxes in the UK. Latest presentation

[my retirement fund] 28/9/2021 12:08

Daft question but why is this not over six quid ?

[andypop1] 28/9/2021 09:46

That's me out.
Good luck all.

[mccracken227] 28/9/2021 08:22

Around 18.8p

[manics] 28/9/2021 08:11

Does anyone know the current price in old PMO money, please?

[andypop1] 27/9/2021 21:46

Bodger,
They are not looking to fully exit Mexico, just the blocks they haven't spent Capex on.

Zama 'the world class discovery' will likely drag on for years.

If the Neptune merger happens it will not go private, the merger will be a vehicle for the private equity to escape the perceived dirty oil business passing the decommissioning liabilities on to the unfortunate owners of the company.

Ditching the FIs is a brave and sensible move.

Good luck all.

[adg] 24/9/2021 09:31

"Tolmont almost certain to come onstream in Q4"
I am told that's unlikely

[ashkv] 24/9/2021 09:15

Debt down by $100mn to $2.6bn, guidance reaffirmed, and management updated that as of 21 Sep 2021 current production is much higher at 210,000 bpd post significant outages due to maintainence, workovers etc
I suppose management are saving the goodies for the next operational update, Tolmont almost certain to come onstream in Q4 with GAS BOE in the $150-$200 range and higher if a cool winter - resulting in an an additional $3mn PER DAY


Also contrary to what folks have conveyed - about half the producton for H2 2021 is hedged and it reduces significantly going forward.
hxxps://www.harbourenergy.com/media/unfhwjfy/2021-half-year-results-presentation.pdf
From the above presentation
For liquids
9mmboe liquids hedged for H2 2021, versus 13mmboe of liquids for H1 2021
Which translates to 49,450 barrels per day of oil hedged at price of $57 for H2 2021 - leaving a significant portion unhedged
For Gas
I am stating with modificaton full year 2021 gas volume hedged is 25 mmboe hedged at $47 per therm
For H2 2021 - hedged volume is 13mmboe (Zero for Tolmont) at a price of $50 per therm
Ergo easy to deduce hedged price of gas for H1 2021 - is $43.75 per therm given average price of year is $47 and H2 hedged price average is $50
Therefore even on hedged volumes H2 will see 15% higher price achieved
And as 13mmboe of hedged volume of gas for H2 translates to 71,420 barrels per day for H2- even for existing gas production a significant amount is unhedged....

[andypop1] 23/9/2021 23:16

Dandi,
357p.

C2B,
That is a very good question and one we will have to wait to be answered.
For anyone unfamiliar with the set up, in short PMO were due to fund RKH's development costs for each phase, those costs would be paid back from the revenue received from Sealion (it's a bit more involved but that was the basis of the farm in).
You'll notice the company is still exploring the options.

'Therefore the Group has decided to explore the options to exit the project and its other license interests in the Falkland Islands'

Good luck.

[c2b] 23/9/2021 17:50

Does anybody understand what happens now to the obligations that Premier acquired when it farmed into the Rockhopper acreage ?

[andypop1] 23/9/2021 16:02

Just took a few.
Good luck.

[dandigirl] 23/9/2021 15:26

Hi - Looks like 09/12.

Did read your posts. Irrationally, part of me thinks something will come up to disappoint. In any event, not sure I am willing to wait that long but will watch and wait for awhile longer to see if the selling pressure abates.

Surely 400p is not too much to expect near term? :)

[ashkv] 23/9/2021 14:29

Dandgirl unlikely next update in Nov dissapoints as prodution is back to strength and hedged volumes for H2 2021 are much lower as compared to H1 2021 - and hedged prices 15-20% higher. See the HBR presentation prior to make such silly off the cuff comments...

Production as of 21 Sep 2021 - 210,000 barrels - versus 150k for H1 2021, debt down by $100m to $2.7 billion, Tolmont online in a few weeks 20-25k bpd unhedged UK gas, 2021 exit production 240,000 barrels
2022 and H2 2021 50% of production volume unhedged
H2 revenue will be up 50% alone on volumes produced and on top of that the much higher prices for Brent and Gas....
UNREAL PRICES....

[dandigirl] 23/9/2021 13:58

Another disappointment. It appears HBR is destined to be one of those always jam tomorrow companies. A small wager that the next update is similarly destined to disappoint.

[ashkv] 23/9/2021 11:38

Page 10 of today's HY Presentation - post maintainence, work-overs etc production has recoved as of 21 Sep 2021 to 210,000 barrels per day and going higher into year 240,000 bpd is planned exit with Tolmont onstream...
THIS IS GOING TO BE A MONSTER H2 RESULTS SHOULD CURRENT PRICES PREVAIL
BUY ON ANY DIPS
EASY EASY MONEY :) :)

hxxps://www.harbourenergy.com/media/unfhwjfy/2021-half-year-results-presentation.pdf

[ashkv] 23/9/2021 11:38

Apologies- I appeared to have messed up my prior post...

[ashkv] 23/9/2021 11:24

Debt down by $100mn to $2.6bn, guidance reaffirmed, and management updated that as of 21 Sep 2021 current production is much higher at 210,000 bpd post significant outages due to maintainence, workovers etc
I suppose management are saving the goodies for the next operational update, Tolmont almost certain to come onstream in Q4 with GAS BOE in the $150-$200 range and higher if a cool winter.
Exit production guidance for 2021 was 240k bpd - I didn't see any mention about the same in today's results.

HBR management likely waiting to gauge how the projects progress prior to reiterating the same...

Also contrary to what folks have conveyed - about half the producton is hedged and it reduces significantly going forward.
hxxps://www.harbourenergy.com/media/unfhwjfy/2021-half-year-results-presentation.pdf
From the above presentation
For liquids
9mmboe liquids hedged for H2 2021, versus 13mmboe of liquids for H1 2021
Which translates to 49,450 barrels per day of oil hedged at price of $57 for H2 2021 - leaving a significant portion unhedged
For Gas
I am stating with modificaton full year 2021 gas volume hedged is 25 mmboe hedged at $47 per therm
For H2 2021 - hedged volume is 13mmboe (Zero for Tolmont) at a price of $50 per therm
Ergo easy to deduce hedged price of gas for H1 2021 - is $43.75 per therm given average price of year is $47 and H2 hedged price average is $50
Therefore even on hedged volumes H2 will see 15% higher price achieved
And as 13mmboe of hedged volume of gas for H2 translates to 71,420 barrels per day for H2- even for existing gas production a significant amount is unhedged....Debt down by $100mn to $2.6bn, guidance reaffirmed, and management updated that as of 21 Sep 2021 current production is much higher at 210,000 bpd post significant outages due to maintainence, workovers etc
I suppose management are saving the goodies for the next operational update, Tolmont almost certain to come onstream in Q4 with GAS BOE in the $150-$200 range and higher if a cool winter.
Exit production guidance for 2021 was 240k bpd - I didn't see any mention about the same in today's results.

HBR management likely waiting to gauge how the projects progress prior to reiterating the same...

Also contrary to what folks have conveyed - about half the producton is hedged and it reduces significantly going forward.
hxxps://www.harbourenergy.com/media/unfhwjfy/2021-half-year-results-presentation.pdf
From the above presentation
For liquids
9mmboe liquids hedged for H2 2021, versus 13mmboe of liquids for H1 2021
Which translates to 49,450 barrels per day of oil hedged at price of $57 for H2 2021 - leaving a significant portion unhedged
For Gas
I am stating with modificaton full year 2021 gas volume hedged is 25 mmboe hedged at $47 per therm
For H2 2021 - hedged volume is 13mmboe (Zero for Tolmont) at a price of $50 per therm
Ergo easy to deduce hedged price of gas for H1 2021 - is $43.75 per therm given average price of year is $47 and H2 hedged price average is $50
Therefore even on hedged volumes H2 will see 15% higher price achieved
And as 13mmboe of hedged volume of gas for H2 translates to 71,420 barrels per day for H2- even for existing gas production a significant amount is unhedged....Debt down by $100mn to $2.6bn, guidance reaffirmed, and management updated that as of 21 Sep 2021 current production is much higher at 210,000 bpd post significant outages due to maintainence, workovers etc
I suppose management are saving the goodies for the next operational update, Tolmont almost certain to come onstream in Q4 with GAS BOE in the $150-$200 range and higher if a cool winter.
Exit production guidance for 2021 was 240k bpd - I didn't see any mention about the same in today's results.

HBR management likely waiting to gauge how the projects progress prior to reiterating the same...

Also contrary to what folks have conveyed - about half the producton is hedged and it reduces significantly going forward.
hxxps://www.harbourenergy.com/media/unfhwjfy/2021-half-year-results-presentation.pdf
From the above presentation
For liquids
9mmboe liquids hedged for H2 2021, versus 13mmboe of liquids for H1 2021
Which translates to 49,450 barrels per day of oil hedged at price of $57 for H2 2021 - leaving a significant portion unhedged
For Gas
I am stating with modificaton full year 2021 gas volume hedged is 25 mmboe hedged at $47 per therm
For H2 2021 - hedged volume is 13mmboe (Zero for Tolmont) at a price of $50 per therm
Ergo easy to deduce hedged price of gas for H1 2021 - is $43.75 per therm given average price of year is $47 and H2 hedged price average is $50
Therefore even on hedged volumes H2 will see 15% higher price achieved
And as 13mmboe of hedged volume of gas for H2 translates to 71,420 barrels per day for H2- even for existing gas production a significant amount is unhedged....

[ashkv] 23/9/2021 11:18

hxxps://www.harbourenergy.com/media/unfhwjfy/2021-half-year-results-presentation.pdf
Brent - $75.40
Share Price - 365
GBPUSD Exch Rate - 1.37
Market Cap GBP - £3,380,000,000
Market Cap USD -$4,630,600,000
Net Debt - $2,600,000,000
Enterprise Value USD (EV) - $5,980,000,000
HBR Prod Guidance 2021 (Bpd) -190,000 (185k-195k bpd Proforma)
EV/Barrel-USD Mid Proforma 190kbpd - $31,474
EV/Barrel-USD - 21 Sep 21 Production of 210kbpd - $28,476
EV/BARREL-USD Tolmont + 20kbpd - $28,476 Including Tolmont Gas Barrels [Net 20-25k bpd Q4 2021]
EV/Barrel-USD YE GUIDANCE 240kbpd - $24,917
(Decomissioning Costs) - $5,675,000,000
(EV+Abandonment)/Barrel-USD YE GUIDANCE 240kbpd- $48,563
Figures from HY Results - 23 Sep 2021

[ashkv] 23/9/2021 11:10

Page 10 of today's HY Presentation - post maintainence, work-overs etc production has recoved as of 21 Sep 2021 to 210,000 barrels per day and going higher into year 240,000 bpd is planned exit with Tolmont onstream...
THIS IS GOING TO BE A MONSTER H2 RESULTS SHOULD CURRENT PRICES PREVAIL
BUY ON ANY DIPS
EASY EASY MONEY :) :)

hxxps://www.harbourenergy.com/media/unfhwjfy/2021-half-year-results-presentation.pdf

[steve73] 23/9/2021 08:32

I understand that 2021 H1 production (151 kbopd) was significantly less than 2020 for Chrysaor alone (187)...

I didn't bother to read further...

[breakconvention] 23/9/2021 08:29

it's clear someone wants to keep the price low here. There could obviously be merger news any day now. But looks like the dividend will return probably pré-Christmas as an overdue gift to share holders.

[kenbos] 23/9/2021 08:00

Those results take a lot of reading will take a long time to understand for a mere mortal like me