Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 23/9/2021 10:38

Apologies- I appeared to have messed up my prior post...

[ashkv] 23/9/2021 10:24

Debt down by $100mn to $2.6bn, guidance reaffirmed, and management updated that as of 21 Sep 2021 current production is much higher at 210,000 bpd post significant outages due to maintainence, workovers etc
I suppose management are saving the goodies for the next operational update, Tolmont almost certain to come onstream in Q4 with GAS BOE in the $150-$200 range and higher if a cool winter.
Exit production guidance for 2021 was 240k bpd - I didn't see any mention about the same in today's results.

HBR management likely waiting to gauge how the projects progress prior to reiterating the same...

Also contrary to what folks have conveyed - about half the producton is hedged and it reduces significantly going forward.
hxxps://www.harbourenergy.com/media/unfhwjfy/2021-half-year-results-presentation.pdf
From the above presentation
For liquids
9mmboe liquids hedged for H2 2021, versus 13mmboe of liquids for H1 2021
Which translates to 49,450 barrels per day of oil hedged at price of $57 for H2 2021 - leaving a significant portion unhedged
For Gas
I am stating with modificaton full year 2021 gas volume hedged is 25 mmboe hedged at $47 per therm
For H2 2021 - hedged volume is 13mmboe (Zero for Tolmont) at a price of $50 per therm
Ergo easy to deduce hedged price of gas for H1 2021 - is $43.75 per therm given average price of year is $47 and H2 hedged price average is $50
Therefore even on hedged volumes H2 will see 15% higher price achieved
And as 13mmboe of hedged volume of gas for H2 translates to 71,420 barrels per day for H2- even for existing gas production a significant amount is unhedged....Debt down by $100mn to $2.6bn, guidance reaffirmed, and management updated that as of 21 Sep 2021 current production is much higher at 210,000 bpd post significant outages due to maintainence, workovers etc
I suppose management are saving the goodies for the next operational update, Tolmont almost certain to come onstream in Q4 with GAS BOE in the $150-$200 range and higher if a cool winter.
Exit production guidance for 2021 was 240k bpd - I didn't see any mention about the same in today's results.

HBR management likely waiting to gauge how the projects progress prior to reiterating the same...

Also contrary to what folks have conveyed - about half the producton is hedged and it reduces significantly going forward.
hxxps://www.harbourenergy.com/media/unfhwjfy/2021-half-year-results-presentation.pdf
From the above presentation
For liquids
9mmboe liquids hedged for H2 2021, versus 13mmboe of liquids for H1 2021
Which translates to 49,450 barrels per day of oil hedged at price of $57 for H2 2021 - leaving a significant portion unhedged
For Gas
I am stating with modificaton full year 2021 gas volume hedged is 25 mmboe hedged at $47 per therm
For H2 2021 - hedged volume is 13mmboe (Zero for Tolmont) at a price of $50 per therm
Ergo easy to deduce hedged price of gas for H1 2021 - is $43.75 per therm given average price of year is $47 and H2 hedged price average is $50
Therefore even on hedged volumes H2 will see 15% higher price achieved
And as 13mmboe of hedged volume of gas for H2 translates to 71,420 barrels per day for H2- even for existing gas production a significant amount is unhedged....Debt down by $100mn to $2.6bn, guidance reaffirmed, and management updated that as of 21 Sep 2021 current production is much higher at 210,000 bpd post significant outages due to maintainence, workovers etc
I suppose management are saving the goodies for the next operational update, Tolmont almost certain to come onstream in Q4 with GAS BOE in the $150-$200 range and higher if a cool winter.
Exit production guidance for 2021 was 240k bpd - I didn't see any mention about the same in today's results.

HBR management likely waiting to gauge how the projects progress prior to reiterating the same...

Also contrary to what folks have conveyed - about half the producton is hedged and it reduces significantly going forward.
hxxps://www.harbourenergy.com/media/unfhwjfy/2021-half-year-results-presentation.pdf
From the above presentation
For liquids
9mmboe liquids hedged for H2 2021, versus 13mmboe of liquids for H1 2021
Which translates to 49,450 barrels per day of oil hedged at price of $57 for H2 2021 - leaving a significant portion unhedged
For Gas
I am stating with modificaton full year 2021 gas volume hedged is 25 mmboe hedged at $47 per therm
For H2 2021 - hedged volume is 13mmboe (Zero for Tolmont) at a price of $50 per therm
Ergo easy to deduce hedged price of gas for H1 2021 - is $43.75 per therm given average price of year is $47 and H2 hedged price average is $50
Therefore even on hedged volumes H2 will see 15% higher price achieved
And as 13mmboe of hedged volume of gas for H2 translates to 71,420 barrels per day for H2- even for existing gas production a significant amount is unhedged....

[ashkv] 23/9/2021 10:18

hxxps://www.harbourenergy.com/media/unfhwjfy/2021-half-year-results-presentation.pdf
Brent - $75.40
Share Price - 365
GBPUSD Exch Rate - 1.37
Market Cap GBP - £3,380,000,000
Market Cap USD -$4,630,600,000
Net Debt - $2,600,000,000
Enterprise Value USD (EV) - $5,980,000,000
HBR Prod Guidance 2021 (Bpd) -190,000 (185k-195k bpd Proforma)
EV/Barrel-USD Mid Proforma 190kbpd - $31,474
EV/Barrel-USD - 21 Sep 21 Production of 210kbpd - $28,476
EV/BARREL-USD Tolmont + 20kbpd - $28,476 Including Tolmont Gas Barrels [Net 20-25k bpd Q4 2021]
EV/Barrel-USD YE GUIDANCE 240kbpd - $24,917
(Decomissioning Costs) - $5,675,000,000
(EV+Abandonment)/Barrel-USD YE GUIDANCE 240kbpd- $48,563
Figures from HY Results - 23 Sep 2021

[ashkv] 23/9/2021 10:10

Page 10 of today's HY Presentation - post maintainence, work-overs etc production has recoved as of 21 Sep 2021 to 210,000 barrels per day and going higher into year 240,000 bpd is planned exit with Tolmont onstream...
THIS IS GOING TO BE A MONSTER H2 RESULTS SHOULD CURRENT PRICES PREVAIL
BUY ON ANY DIPS
EASY EASY MONEY :) :)

hxxps://www.harbourenergy.com/media/unfhwjfy/2021-half-year-results-presentation.pdf

[steve73] 23/9/2021 07:32

I understand that 2021 H1 production (151 kbopd) was significantly less than 2020 for Chrysaor alone (187)...

I didn't bother to read further...

[breakconvention] 23/9/2021 07:29

it's clear someone wants to keep the price low here. There could obviously be merger news any day now. But looks like the dividend will return probably pré-Christmas as an overdue gift to share holders.

[kenbos] 23/9/2021 07:00

Those results take a lot of reading will take a long time to understand for a mere mortal like me

[dd776] 22/9/2021 23:23

Looking forward to the dividend ,,,,

[kenbos] 22/9/2021 16:31

Hope so dd if it goes above 4 I'm out

[dd776] 22/9/2021 15:15

Keep ticking up

[pdosullivan] 18/9/2021 14:45

Hedging means that HBR will not fully benefit from the recent uptick in oil and gas prices

[dirossiale] 17/9/2021 22:13

17th September 2021-By NoFear

Harbour Energy Plc Final trading Volumes at 17:51 Bst:

Buy Volumes: 22,493,700. This includes 16,692,437[Uncrossed Trades]under Buy Volume.

Sell Volumes: 564,867

Unknown Volumes: 2,169

See the screenshot of Harbour Energy trades from 16:29 to 17:51 [B.S.T]

Copy and Paste this link here below and then Zoom in to see todays Hbr last trades:

preview.redd.it/zhjzscmgj3o71.png?width=1233&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d9ec79111dfaa147993c2f9df9efd850ae84913

[dirossiale] 17/9/2021 22:11

17th September 2021-By NoFear

Harbour Energy Plc Final trading Volumes at 17:51 Bst:

Buy Volumes: 22,493,700. This includes 16,692,437[Uncrossed Trades]under Buy Volume.

Sell Volumes: 564,867

Unknown Volumes: 2,169

See the screenshot of Harbour Energy trades from 16:29 to 17:51 [B.S.T]

Copy and Paste this link here below and then Zoom in to see todays Hbr last trades:

preview.redd.it/zhjzscmgj3o71.png?width=1233&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d9ec79111dfaa147993c2f9df9efd850ae84913

[dirossiale] 17/9/2021 22:10

17th September 2021-By NoFear

Harbour Energy Plc Final trading Volumes at 17:51 Bst:

Buy Volumes: 22,493,700. This includes 16,692,437[Uncrossed Trades]under Buy Volume.

Sell Volumes: 564,867

Unknown Volumes: 2,169

See the screenshot of Harbour Energy trades from 16:29 to 17:51 [B.S.T]

Copy and Paste this link here below and then Zoom in to see todays Hbr last trades:

preview.redd.it/zhjzscmgj3o71.png?width=1233&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d9ec79111dfaa147993c2f9df9efd850ae84913

[andypop1] 17/9/2021 21:24

Nutty,

'Buy into weakness ? Is it ever anything else ?'

We could try 'the MM wants your shares cheap for their mates', 'they're trying to shake the weak out with this tree shake', 'when the institutions have filled their boots the MMs will let this go like a coiled spring', I could go on. (Please excuse the spelling, lol).
This spring has been coiled for so long it is suffering from metal fatigue, a bit like some of the rusty assets the business owns!

I've got to say even I am surprised at how badly this has performed since the merger and I have been one of the biggest critics of the company on several boards for many years now.
We know PMO were very creative with the wording in official releases, always staying within the legal boundaries with the use of forward looking statements but were the boundaries crossed when they made a direct comparison to Aker BP in valuing the post merger company?
Probably not legally but morally yes.

Good luck next week.

[peterlowen] 17/9/2021 15:43

16.6 mill cross trade buy at close....value £60,359,852.19

[breakconvention] 17/9/2021 15:06

Once again the price action here is very strange. most of the quarter, oil has been at a 3 year high, and gas at a 5 year high price. If the results aren't good I'll be amazed.

[rathlindri] 17/9/2021 12:33

Sold out, and it's a relief to be out

[brazilnut1] 17/9/2021 12:30

Buy into weakness ? Is it ever anything else ? Dreading the 23rd. £3 coming ?

[dandigirl] 17/9/2021 09:23

andypop: agree, again! Just waiting a moment to depart the scene.

[ashkv] 17/9/2021 07:45

Results Next Week - Hope management start deliveringToday 08:45

Recent Dissappointments on production revision re last update and then Tolmont delay - have set back share price.

Extremely strange how shares are not reacting to strong Brent - this will come good.

Buy into weakness.... sellers will soon be overwhelmed.... with $100 Brent on the horizon per multiple analysts... ;)

[andypop1] 15/9/2021 22:26

Just 14 posts on the lse asylum today, zero on here despite the oil and gas prices having a reasonable day?
With no reportable holdings announced since the takeover even with promotion to the FTSE 250 and the lack of retail investor activity on these boards it would be wise to question who would see this as an investment and not just a trade?

Dandi,
Let's hope the interims don't mention any liquidated ascertained damages payable to the infrastructure partners for the late delivery of Tolmount that should have come online Q2.

[dandigirl] 14/9/2021 08:00

Interims due on 23/09. Hope they are a bit more upbeat than the last statement.

[kenbos] 14/9/2021 07:24

Seems to be a resistance level here just needs a good bit of news to get through it