Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[wbodger] 09/12/2021 22:41

Hoovering up assets didn't do much good for Premier.

ashkv is probably right about disappointment with Tolmount, but share price 11.8% down?? Is there a claw-back on the cost if reserves have to be downgraded?

Also, flagging possibly debt-free by 2025 should be very positive.

Like others have posted, I don't understand the market reaction. Perhaps technical and reversible. (Curious that NED Anne Stevens paid £4 a share for 30,000 shares three weeks ago... Looks like she wasn't in the loop?)

Dog that didn't bark: Zama, Dog that did: Sea Lion. Maybe market wanted more?

It was only a CMD.

[ashkv] 09/12/2021 17:56

Follow The Money - Share Price Dropped and IIs swooping in with Big Buys at close

09-Dec-21 16:36:40 379.50 272,282 Buy* 379.40 379.80 1m O
09-Dec-21 16:35:17 379.60 1,175,758 Buy* 379.40 379.80 4m UT
09-Dec-21 16:32:10 380.00 250,000 Buy* 398.60 352.80 950.00k O
09-Dec-21 16:32:05 380.00 250,000 Buy* 398.60 352.80 950.00k O

Above trades only popped up at close... ah the the games the games...

HBR on 9 Dec 2021
# Trades 6,669
Vol. Sold 2,075,085
Sold Value £8,104,437.76
Vol. Bought 3,689,474
Bought Value £14,187,729.62

[ashkv] 09/12/2021 17:52

9 Dec 2021 - Capital Markets Day
Brent - $75.00
HBR Share Price - 375
Shares Outstanding - 925,532,606
GBPUSD Exch Rate - 1.32
Market Cap GBP - £3,471,000,000
Market Cap USD - $4,581,720,000
Net Debt - $2,350,000,000
Enterprise Value USD (EV) - $6,931,720,000
HBR Prod Guidance 2022 (Bpd) - 202,500
EV/Barrel-USD Mid 2022 Guidance - $34,231
EV/Barrel-USD - Oct/Nov 21 Production 215kbpd - $32,241
(Decomissioning Costs - HALF YEAR 2021 Results) - $5,675,000,000
(EV+Abandonment)/Barrel-USD 210kbpd- $60,032

[sigma3333] 09/12/2021 16:19

Good start for HBR. Conservative, understating potential upside, understating risk (surprised to see one of their most important assets is over 40 years old and is operated by someone else). Clearly Linda runs a tight ship

Pretty boring - would rather they spend divis on hoovering up companies/assets rather than trying to be another Shell.

siggy

[perch3] 09/12/2021 15:42

what on earth is going on here today ? was the news that bad ?

[dd776] 09/12/2021 13:16

Drop overdone

[brazilnut1] 09/12/2021 13:12

Another con of a company. Down graded production ?, do these people know what they are doing ? Piece of junk just like Hurricane.

[ashkv] 09/12/2021 12:57

Tolmont delay - and had prior guided 2021 exit guidance at 240k bpd, whereas production in Oct/Nov was 215k bpd.

However, market has been discounting HBR at 150k bpd - H1 performancce...

The 200-300mn reduction of debt from end Sep to YE 2021 should alone justify a higher share price...

[sigma3333] 09/12/2021 08:41

"Integration on track, material synergies expected to be realised"

Any views as what this is about ? Cuts in headcount ?

siggy

[bomfin] 09/12/2021 07:51

Dividend 16p/share/annum.

Just under 4% annually at current share price.

[ashkv] 09/12/2021 07:47

UPDATED ENTERPRISE VALUE / BARREL - Capital Markets Day Guidance

A very conservative outlook from HBR - one negative was the downbeat news re Tolmont - hopefully quick execution on Tolmont East and expectations of upside news going forward - otherwise should sack CEO Cook

Brent - $76.00
Share Price - 430
GBPUSD Exch Rate - 1.32
Market Cap GBP - £3,985,000,000
Market Cap USD - $5,260,200,000
Net Debt - $2,350,000,000 (Forecast year end net debt of $2.3-2.4bn )
Enterprise Value USD (EV) - $7,610,200,000
HBR Prod Guidance 2022 (Bpd) - 202,500 (Production of 195-210 kboepd, with the midpoint representing an increase of 16% vs 2021)
EV/Barrel-USD Mid 2022 Guidance - $37,581
EV/Barrel-USD - Oct/Nov 21 Production 215kbpd - $35,396
(Decomissioning Costs - HALF YEAR 2021 Results) - $5,675,000,000 (Likely lower by 5-10% in FY 2021 results due to run-off)

[dd776] 06/12/2021 20:59

Harbour Energy will hold a virtual Capital Markets Day on Thursday, 9 December 2021 hosted by CEO Linda Cook and other members of the leadership team. Presentations will begin at 12.00pm and will be webcast live. A replay will be available after the event.

[bomfin] 25/11/2021 23:08

If production is up near 200,000 boepd then they are making a silly amount of money at present. £7 million cash flow/day or even more not impossible. If so and it lasts for rest of winter up to end March say and they will be close to £500 million debt having reduced it £1.8 billion in a year. Again, If so ? their share price looks crazy low within months. imho dyor

[shaf200] 25/11/2021 13:10

I loaded again earlier this morning!

[surfit] 24/11/2021 14:01

IMO, if some directors are comming in at near recent prices they are not in for a quick turnaround?
News recently looks better especially with with Tuna. Add the hope that Tolomount should be up and running in the next month /6 weeks and having negotiated supply price agreements completed (encouraging on operational start up time lines) AND the "possible" payment of a dividend (I.e. directors buying) could indicate a reasonable yield level???????? Anyone want to speculate what level would be realistic?
Outstanding issues is the amount HBR are looking to claw back from SL and a possible exit from Zama, but the reality is this could end up in the law courts unless the Mexicans change tact some? I.e. they may drop field operatorship, by using it as a bargaining point for their unsubstantiated (no drilling) to support % claim on Zama overlap field reserves??
Overlap looks to be have eased, will be happy to see share price remain +420 at end of Friday and no profit taking I.e. investors starting to realise share price is under priced with the companies operational status and old creditors out (stability on SP) now its just down to performance and fundamentals of an leading UK operator?
All IMO.
Rgds Sft

[spacedust] 23/11/2021 16:22

Need 600p just to break even. Bought at 30p.....

[breakconvention] 23/11/2021 16:13

Nice director buy today, always a good sign. This has been held low for way to long..excellent value potential here.

[dandigirl] 23/11/2021 15:19

We have lift-off. Told myself I would sell at 400p but have decided to hold a little longer. 411 as I write. How much more?

[bomfin] 22/11/2021 14:18

Also on gas price hedging. I think the 70,000 boepd hedged has also at least 5,000 boepd of the Indonesian gas production. So, Doubly looking better imho.

[bomfin] 22/11/2021 12:57

Just on gas sales. I think Catcher gas can be sold rather than reinjected. That could help significantly to dampen fears of them not producing enough gas to cover hedges. Looking good! Perhaps very good.

[venjyod] 22/11/2021 09:26

Harbour strikes gas after successfully wrapping up Tuna drilling amid South China Sea spat

/// [...] ////

[dirossiale] 19/11/2021 13:31

!FOLLOWFEED
19th November 2021
Harbour strikes gas after successfully wrapping up Tuna drilling amid South China Sea spat
Harbour Energy (LON:HBR) and its Russian partner Zarubezhneft have successfully completed their appraisal drilling campaign at the Tuna Block in the Natuna Sea offshore Indonesia with positive results at both wells.

Rikky Rahmat Firdaus, chief representative of Northern Sumatra region at upstream regulator SKK Migas, reported that Harbour had discovered gas and condensate at both Singa Laut-2 and Kuda Laut-2 appraisal wells.

Harbour declined to comment about its operations, but industry sources told Energy Voice that the company will provide more details about the Tuna appraisal drilling in early December at their capital markets day.

Two successful exploration wells have previously been drilled at Tuna, which has estimated reserves of 100 million barrels of oil equivalent and lies close to the maritime border with Vietnam.



Click below link to read the full article NoPaywall. Free to read. Enjoy.NoFear.AR-8888.(*__*)

[bomfin] 18/11/2021 05:40

So, Why are they heading for a bumper update on 9th December if UK production holds above 170,000 boepd?

Well, If they hold that they are unlikely to fall beneath the 70,000 boepd (gas) production required to fulfill hedged gas quantities. They do still have Tolmount to come on stream. So, this possible issue gets alleviated in the coming months.

If they have a 100,000 bopd (oil) then they will be making about £4.25 million/day cash flow from this production. £2.5 million a day for unhedged oil and £1.75 million a day for hedged oil. If gas is down at 70,000 boepd then their hedged gas gives off around £1.4 million a day making a total of £5.65 million/day cash flow.

If they are, at that, their £1.7 billion debt going into the 2nd half 2021 is going to take a hit. We are nearly 150 days into the 2nd half so cash flow 2nd half could be at £850 million. With £400 million capex 2nd half making us already £450 million cash positive 2nd half.

In this scenario any gas production above 70,000 boepd gives a very nice Brucie bonus and with Tolmount to come. So is Christmas btw some might say.

Still if debt is down to £1.25 billion they will be on course to reduce it about £1 billion this year and that is worthy of a rerating. I expect a dividend to be announced 9th December. All IMHO Do your own research.