Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[catsick] 05/10/2021 06:48

The key thing that the market does not really seem to appreciate is the heavy gas mix that hbr now have which can now be priced in line with seaborne LNG but with none of the massive costs, as European gas production falls away and LNG becomes the marginal supply the gas prices going forward will all be much higher than the oil equivalent as opposed to the historic huge discount, the hedges will roll of and there will be a bonanza....

[pdosullivan] 05/10/2021 00:37

Thank you!

[andypop1] 05/10/2021 00:17

BOM,
Those numbers look impressive, so why is the company looking to refinance the $400m Shell Junior debt facility before the debt element becomes repayable from June next year?
Good luck.

[bomfin] 04/10/2021 22:54

bh, the hedged prices are in the recent half year results presentation. The 70,000 hedged gas clears £1 million pounds a day. 30,000 unhedged gas is clearing £4 million a day at current prices. the 50,000 hedged oil is clearing £1.5 million a day and the 50,000 unhedged oil is clearing about £2.25 million a day at current prices. They have Tolmount to come and an active infill and development well drilling programme at their hubs. They could be smashing debt very quickly at this rate. The risk of course is that a production outage where gas production falls under 70,000 boepd sees them having to buy gas at market prices. If they get through the next few months at 210,000 boepd they are mighty cheap.They can earn £7 billion profit in the uk before they have to pay tax. My understanding of what the CEO said in the presentation. imho dyor

[andypop1] 04/10/2021 22:52

PD,
The junior facility of $400 million carries interest at six-month USD LIBOR plus a margin of 5.25 percent, rising to a margin of 5.5 percent from November 2025, and is repayable in semi-annual instalments between 30 June 2022 and 30 June 2026.

[pdosullivan] 04/10/2021 22:37

Does anyone know what rate HBR is paying on the junior debt facility from Shell that it is looking to extinguish with part of the proceeds from the bond issue that was launched today please?

[bountyhunter] 04/10/2021 21:46

Thanks, that's what I thought, all smoke and mirrors but that figure is going to be considerably higher in the full year results which may lead to some distortion of the true picture! :)

[andypop1] 04/10/2021 21:45

Bounty,
Purely accounting but it does highlight the lost revenue from their hedging programme.

Good luck.

[bountyhunter] 04/10/2021 21:38

From the recent Interims...

"At 30 June 2021, our financial hedging programme on commodity derivative instruments showed a negative fair value of $1,387.6 million (H1 2020: positive fair value of $890.4 million), with no ineffectiveness charge to the income statement."

Is that ($1,387.6 million) purely an accounting loss or a real derivatives loss? I presume it's the former?

[bountyhunter] 04/10/2021 21:22

and what are the hedged prices and how long do they run for? 😀

[bomfin] 04/10/2021 21:00

How well this is currently doing depends on the answers to a few questions.

Here`s 4.

Are they sustaining production of over 210,000 boepd as their recent 1st half results presentation suggested?

Are they clearing 30,000 boepd(gas) above the 70,000 boepd(gas) they have hedged and gaining current market prices on that 30,000 boepd.

Will that go up to 50,000 to 55,000 boepd at market prices if and when Tolmount comes on stream?

Is there 50,000 bopd (oil) unhedged on top of 50,000 bopd hedged clearing £45/barrel thanks to the £7 billion of tax credits ?

[andypop1] 30/9/2021 23:35

Franky,
I'll have a look over the weekend, you mentioned a placing? Is it another AIM company that continually goes to the market for cash because the balance sheet doesn't add up?

If you took that out of Vela well done, it was as you say prolonged and eventually a short lived spike. Being the humble builder I am, I'm too busy digging holes to watch a company's share price that closely to have been able to sell at the top like you!

Good luck

[one_frankel] 30/9/2021 16:37

Good to be back Poop, I hope your doing well buddy!

...I'm out of that 'Basket Case' AIM stock for the timebeing after having a near 80% return on my investment but it was too prolonged so I've ventured into ENET now which had a placing only very recently but there's some outstanding companies arising from the chosen land (Israel to those unfamiliar) that have been decades in development and are only beginning to gain some serious market traction...

When the humble builder has a little time consider doing your DD!

[andypop1] 29/9/2021 22:38

Franky,
Welcome back, I'm sure you meant well with that nonsensical post but haven't you got a basket case AIM company to promote sweet cheeks?
Good luck mate.

[one_frankel] 29/9/2021 13:46

The humble Poop requires some corroboration from manipulated mainstream media before he even considers parting with a penny or two but this is the wrong game for you if that's your take buddy and your investing will be fruitless!

[andypop1] 29/9/2021 10:51

Back in.
Good luck

[andypop1] 28/9/2021 22:13

Bodger,
If a deal is negotiated between the BoDs of Harbour and Neptune or any other company (I'm not suggesting it will be) then shareholders like yourself will have little influence on the required shareholder approval needed to allow the deal to complete given the percentage of shares held by the directors and their cronies from Chrysoar not to mention the historic low turnout at previous general meetings.
Good luck.

[wbodger] 28/9/2021 13:34

Re #726 andypop, Yup, I don't dispute any of that. I suspect Neptune may see it as a lifeline, it will depend on what deal is negotiated whether we (shareholders ;)) will go for it.

[bomfin] 28/9/2021 12:41

Could have as much as 30,000 boepd Nat gas production not hedged in 2nd half 2021 and as much as 50,000 bopd not hedged in 2nd half 2021. They could be making £6 million a day

[bomfin] 28/9/2021 12:39

They can make £7 billion profit before having to pay taxes in the UK. Latest presentation

[my retirement fund] 28/9/2021 12:08

Daft question but why is this not over six quid ?

[andypop1] 28/9/2021 09:46

That's me out.
Good luck all.

[mccracken227] 28/9/2021 08:22

Around 18.8p

[manics] 28/9/2021 08:11

Does anyone know the current price in old PMO money, please?

[andypop1] 27/9/2021 21:46

Bodger,
They are not looking to fully exit Mexico, just the blocks they haven't spent Capex on.

Zama 'the world class discovery' will likely drag on for years.

If the Neptune merger happens it will not go private, the merger will be a vehicle for the private equity to escape the perceived dirty oil business passing the decommissioning liabilities on to the unfortunate owners of the company.

Ditching the FIs is a brave and sensible move.

Good luck all.