Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[catsick] 06/10/2021 08:33

The jan futures are at 333 now which is about 270 usd per boe equivalent, toulmont will be up and running by then and making massive massive cash, and the shares are still 18p old money, the company need to put out an update on how they are capitalising on these high prices abd what is holding up tolmont

[bomfin] 06/10/2021 07:52

That to me is a bonanza and if it lasts it will make fiddling around with debt irrelevant. Imho dyor.

[bomfin] 06/10/2021 07:41

Showing 329p/therm early today. 6 months of those prices and 30,000 boepd gas unhedged and Tolmount on 1st Jan at 20,000 to 25,000 and they will pay the debt off. OK. Prices won`t stay there but they should stay strong with winter just starting. imho dyor

[surfit] 06/10/2021 00:35

Thanks Andypop. Chryasor were a limited company and a vehicle for EIG and (I might be being simplistic) it's energy investment process.
I think EIG are obviously still directing operations and playing the way they want to, the PMO creditors and us investors are irrelevant. Remove the Shell debts and therefore they and their investors gain further control?

As you say market may have seen through that the rhetorical and hence the trust on investments?

Hope fully Tolmounts get online before winters end, but I wonder if they hedged part of Tolmount against the planned start date and are subject to penalties? or would they only approach the market the day they start up?
Zama will be out of the picture for possibley years, SL abandoned and possibley written off (insane) and Asia's heading (China flexing further intimidation, Taiwan is just one further step).
So those great reserves are now worth what?
So HBR do not seem so very international any more and what else are they looking to get in the North Sea? Just keep to their acquisition and drilling (using up those tax credits PMO ALSO gave them).
All looking pretty disappointing in a rising market. Still hopeful to get cash + back in 6 months or so.
I may need that good luck your offering.
Rgds Sft
All just my opinions, of course.

[andypop1] 05/10/2021 23:50

Bom,
OK, I understand now, notes are not convertible bonds, a sore subject for the PMO faithful.
Good luck.

[bomfin] 05/10/2021 23:43

Andypop. You are probably right although I thought some senior notes can be converted to shares.

[sbb1x] 05/10/2021 22:02

#API:#Crude +0.951M#Gas +3.682M#Distillate +0.345M #Cushing +1.999M#OOTT $CL_F #OILH/T @BroadStreetOil

[andypop1] 05/10/2021 21:41

bomfin5 Oct '21 - 07:18 - 751 of 767
0 0 0
andypop1. Personally, I think the Senior notes are about letting their people in at good prices before the bonanza. Just my opinion.

Bom,
I don't understand that statement, the notes will be at a fixed rate over the term so what bonanza are they letting their people in before?

Bounty,
Your point about potential rising interest rates is one I hadn't considered, the notes will be fixed but the Junior facility is not, it's LIBOR plus.

Good luck.

[andypop1] 05/10/2021 21:13

Surf,
To me the company is sending the wrong message to potential investors with the announcement yesterday.
PMO tried kicking the proverbial can down the road and it was their undoing, to the sceptics it looks like Harbour are doing the same rather than paying $50m down each six months from June next year.
The market reacted negatively to the news, if it wasn't for the oil price yesterday and today who knows where the share price would be?
Imagine if yesterday's RNS said due to higher than expected commodity prices in the last quarter Harbour is paying the $50m due on the Junior facility in June next year early…...?
Since the takeover there seems to be no confidence in the company, add to that the creditor and legacy shares and you can see why this is sat at 18.5p in old money.

Good luck.

[bomfin] 05/10/2021 16:51

Or perhaps it would be embarrassing to have the former Shell assets making them a fortune while Shell are still lending them money. Smirk.

[andypop1] 05/10/2021 15:34

Sold out.

Surf I'll answer later.

Good luck

[surfit] 05/10/2021 12:28

Hey Andypop, have you had any further musings on why exiting from Shell debt?
Could it be just locating another line of credit having not being able to extend, plus picking up a further 100mil?
As bounty considers it would be better to reduce that debt against potential OnG price retractment.
But maybe we are thinking like Brits (older) too much (dislike of debt) they are USA in thought: EIG may like to take it on for the right returns and double their returns (share holder and further investor) if they have good confidence in the medium term with OnG prices?
I can't seem them (famous last words I.e. ARCM/PMO) letting the debt into the wrong hands but...well the US has demonstrated it can be loose with financial regulations at times.
Will not hold you to your thoughts just intresting to speculate and you were bang in with PMO.
Rgds Sft

[bomfin] 05/10/2021 12:27

Thanks lonrho. I think we are heading for power cuts. Didn`t want to say it but that`s what I`m thinking.

[bountyhunter] 05/10/2021 12:18

yes

gas prices are going crazy today, are we heading for gas cuts?

is it even safe to have a lower pressure in the network?

[lonrho] 05/10/2021 12:07

Working from home.

[bomfin] 05/10/2021 11:43

No, Perhaps very little gas sold to grid from Wressle but that will take time. Resolution discovery is said to have nearly 40 million boe (gas) Egdon 30% Shell their partner.

[bountyhunter] 05/10/2021 11:15

about but wfh
Not looked at Eldon, do they produce gas?

[bomfin] 05/10/2021 10:25

bh, If you are about? Thoughts on Egdon and the Endeavour and Resolution discoveries and the Shell farm in? I`ll look on Egdon thread for any answer.

[catsick] 05/10/2021 09:33

The uk gas futures for dec 2021 are now at 276 which is 217 usd per boe crazy, they need to get tolmont flowing asap it's basically 5m usd a day of free money to get the taps turned on

[bomfin] 05/10/2021 08:50

Yes bh, Nothing is a definite. Although I reckon they have already paid 2nd half Capex from cash flow from July, August, September production. That 2nd half capex should also increase production. At current gas prices and production they look set to pay off £500 million to £1 billion of debt during next 3 months provided no production outages. I think we can safely predict that it will get colder. Compared to Serica they are diversified over many assets but the hedges pretty much account for that advantage and if there is a shut in they are quite siginifcantly worse off. imho dyor

[bountyhunter] 05/10/2021 08:30

Thanks bomfin. Servicing the not insignificant debt longer term in a rising interest rate environment is my main concern if energy prices drop back which they will, it's just a question to what level and when.

[bomfin] 05/10/2021 07:31

They also brought their Capital Markets presentation forward to 9th December from February. I think they are going to buy something but the price explosion on gas will make what would perhaps have been a significant deal to the balance sheet look easy. For example, If they get Tolmount on at anything near current gas prices they get payout on a very long drawn out and expensive project quickly. Just a few thoughts. DYOR

[bomfin] 05/10/2021 07:25

Re debt reduction. We know that from 1st April to 30th June this year they reduced debt by $300 million with lower production because of maintenance on many of their assets and lower prices.

[bomfin] 05/10/2021 07:18

andypop1. Personally, I think the Senior notes are about letting their people in at good prices before the bonanza. Just my opinion.