Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bomfin] 20/10/2021 08:56

lol, Pmo is gone Price dip here another opportunity. April, May, June. Before the main nat gas price increase and at lower oil prices and with less production they paid off $300 million debt. So, they are biting into debt daily and that means that on 9th December Capital Markets Day Presentation they are very likely to surprise on the upside. imho dyor

[andypop1] 20/10/2021 00:36

Dandi,
It was but it isn't now.
But don't worry, apparently it is heading to £5 a share!
Do your research though.

[bomfin] 15/10/2021 13:10

Chance to seize the day. This is heading to £5/share. imho dyor

[dandigirl] 15/10/2021 09:44

So, after all these months, share price nearly back to 20p.

[sbb1x] 13/10/2021 21:35

Crude +5.213MMGasoline -4.575MM Distillate -2.707MM Cushing -2.275MM

[bomfin] 11/10/2021 11:30

Good job on the blog.

The gas/oil mix to production is interesting. I`m guessing all holders are hoping that they are up near the 100,000 boepd gas production which is suggested in the half year results presentation by the financial director within the presentation and within answers. This would have them back up at around 50% gas production. With 30,000 boepd unhedged in 2nd half. This also pre Tolmount production where current gas prices make the delay more easy to swallow. If it`s also 100,000 bopd (oil and liquids production) then that is 50,000 bopd unhedged with Brent hitting $84/barrel today. Not bad either. The hedged oil price isn`t bad for the remaining 50,000 bopd. These numbers are guesstimates and the reality will more likely be a 90/110 split either way but my guess is gas may be down at around 95,000 boepd. They did get PMO`s share of Elgin Franklin and the 1,000 boepd from Ravenspurn North. Pmo mainly adds oil production though. Countering this is they have been doing infill, workover and development wells at their gas assets. Interesting times but extra oil production not bad at $84/barrel. imho dyor.

[pdosullivan] 11/10/2021 09:10

Hi all, just giving a second (and final) push on my blog about Harbour Energy, which I'm a shareholder in: https://tbifund.wordpress.com/2021/10/10/harbour-energy-hbr-ln-a-safe-harbour/

[catsick] 11/10/2021 08:54

It would probably make the most sense to offload the falkland assets to YPF , they are close by and being Argentinian are not exposed so much to the risk of action by Argentina, maybe give the stuff away for some free carried interest

[bomfin] 11/10/2021 07:45

The lower production in June being as a result of scheduled maintenance and some delayed maintenance from the previous year because of Covid. Production back at over 210,000 boepd in September.

[bomfin] 10/10/2021 15:02

Good job.

Very quickly. I noticed that the 6 month lock ins are no longer locked in. Hmmm, Interesting. Opportunity? I noticed 2nd half capex is almost double 1st half. OK. They are bringing on some easy add on production. A few wells tabbed as purely development. Also infill drilling. A little explo. Increases in production and prices should take care of this quite easily and give much more to the bottom line than many are expecting. Production levels and prices need to hold for the amount of prospective resturns I have mentioned previously to happen. Paying off $300 million in the second quarter when production was about half what it is now in June. June production was 96,000 boepd. If you do the sums with 151 million boepd for 1st half as opposed to 162 million boepd up to end May. all imho dyor.

[pdosullivan] 10/10/2021 13:21

Hi everyone. I have written a blog on Harbour Energy, which I am a shareholder in, that you may find interesting. The blog is at this link - https://tbifund.wordpress.com/2021/10/10/harbour-energy-hbr-ln-a-safe-harbour/

[bomfin] 09/10/2021 11:57

Thoughts on what price they will pitch the dividend when it is likely announced at the Capital Markets day presentation 9th December. I`m thinking if they cleared $302 million free cash flow from 1st April to 30th June this year on lower production and prices than are current they wouldn`t miss £100 million a year for a Dividend. So, I reckon 10p/share for starters. I reckon they cleared £600 million free cash flow to the bottom line from 1st July to 9th October with Debt to be announced at under £1.5 billion at the Capital Markets Day presentation. I find value shares and talk about them. Only that. I do not short. I look for undervalued companies and invest in them. Then I share the good news. Please note use of $ and £ signs. Yes! Good luck all.

[bomfin] 08/10/2021 20:25

Next market open day is 11th October. By then within the month of October Harbour will have put between £70 million and £100 million to the bottom line. 10 days of revenues less operations cost.

[andypop1] 07/10/2021 21:49

A few weeks old but worth a read.

hxxps://news.sky.com/story/revealed-some-of-the-worlds-biggest-oil-companies-are-paying-negative-tax-in-the-uk-12380442

Good luck.

[bomfin] 07/10/2021 21:20

The head of finance also states that about 70% of gas production is hedged. Well, I had worked out something similar. If correct then that means 30% is unhedged. If hedged is 70,000 boepd then 30,000 boepd is unhedged. Pre tolmount and at current gas prices giving £4 million additional cash flow/day.

[bomfin] 07/10/2021 21:13

All good. The opportunity remains while share price does not respond to it clearing £200 million a month. OK. Re 10 billion UK profit before having to pay tax. I can`t find where the CEO says this although I am convinced I heard her say it. In the 1st half results presentation the financial controller says they won`t have to pay tax in 2nd half 2021 when covering slide 17 and also in answer to a question during questions.

[dandigirl] 07/10/2021 20:05

Another domestic hydro-carbons producer,
Harbour Energy (HBR) looks likely to see a less
significant impact on profitability from rising gas
prices due to hedging.

Investment bank Berenberg says: ‘(Harbour̵7;s)
exposure to the strong gas price environment is
limited.’

It calculates that a 5p per therm increase in its
second half of 2021 gas price (from a base case of
67p per therm) would result in just a 5% increase
in 2021 EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax,
depreciation and amortisation)

[bomfin] 07/10/2021 12:58

I should make a proviso. I believe she said that. I may have been guilty of thinking it though. LOL. I will try and find it.

[bomfin] 07/10/2021 12:46

Busy today. May be able to find it tonight.

[bomfin] 07/10/2021 12:45

Leading. Nope.She said they could make $10 billion profits before having to pay tax.

[leading] 07/10/2021 11:53

Bomfin, I think that is a misread. Tax losses of $4bn implies $4bn of profits to absorb the losses, not $10bn.

However, there may be some limitation of the use of those losses as andypop1 suggests.
Slide 17 says that the losses will be absorbed by 2026, but I don't think you can use that to say profits will therefore be x. Not unless you have a very good grasp of the company's tax affairs anyway.

[bomfin] 07/10/2021 07:31

OK. Going to be too busy today. Just quickly. Foot slide 17. hxxps://www.harbourenergy.com/media/unfhwjfy/2021-half-year-results-presentation.pdf

To Use $4 Billion tax losses you need to make $10 billion profit. imho dyor

[bomfin] 07/10/2021 07:20

On September. Using the figures given in the half year results presentation and knowing the September commodity prices and Harbour`s hedges. Harbour should have had at least £200 million going to the bottom line.

[bomfin] 07/10/2021 07:19

On tax credits. It was stated by the CEO that Harbour can Earn 10 billion dollars before they have to pay tax in the uk. Can`t remember if last presentation or last but one. I`ll locate the presentation and the time it was said later today.

[pdosullivan] 07/10/2021 00:15

Given that there is an implied overhang as the lock ups expire and also given the strength in commodity prices, I would like to see management give consideration to a share buyback.