Hammerson Share Discussion Threads

[boram] 27/2/2003 17:07

If you have any comments on Hammerson please make them here.

[big vern] 11/10/2002 18:14

good be right. Very long term looks as if it will rally.Short term since May its been in a nice down trend. I think it could rebound of its support here ....so just waiting to close short. Will see on Monday

[skyship] 11/10/2002 18:00

A very strange stock to short. Personally I think 450-480 will prove to be the base for a reversal; and this whole sector may gap up with any further corporate action - look at the move in Slough today.....

[big vern] 10/10/2002 11:37

short at 462

[ashtongray] 19/9/2002 21:02

sky

The whole sector seems to be in the doghouse now. I'd be back in there already, but I think there's a widening gap between the interest for pension funds etc you mention, and the outlook for the physical market, i.e. tenant demand. This could get ugly if the economy weakens further, whether it be offices, shops or industrial. so for the moment, I'm just keeping an eye on it.

[skyship] 16/9/2002 01:04

It never ceases to amaze me how few investors play the property sector. Since I started this thread back in January, this thread on a 1.3bn Market Cap Company attacted just 6 posts - 3 my own! The stock shot (overshot) from 440p to 655p; and has now retraced in the overall market fall to 480p; at which level the NAV discount has once again climbed to 35%.

The quality of the management is seen from the current entrepreneurial offer for Grantchester; the quality of the property book can be assessed from the many past company and broker reports.

HMSO is now firmly back into the BUY zone......certainly one to put into one's Monitor for a market sell-off. Also keep an eye on SLOU & CLI. The whole sector has been swept down to an anomalous low when the Pension Funds continue to be active buyers of commercial Real Estate where 8% yields are commonplace.

[skyship] 19/2/2002 00:32

Bumpy Dog - you were absolutely right with HMR - hope you were still in there for the recent rise. I'm still running GPOR & SLOU; and added MNR last week, it too made a great chart break-out. I'm hoping TOPS will be next in line for a rerating.

[ntv] 15/1/2002 21:43

re cnp -i could never understand the partial bid for the company at 125p perhaps there was going to be a bid for the company until found out what mr glaser had done but i'm sticking with you on djan and hmso

[skyship] 15/1/2002 19:44

As you will have seen, Schroders came out yesterday as Bulls of the sector, though many of their price targets were couched in severely cautious terms.

My personal view on HMR is that its "offshore" status complicates matters; and why buy a 25-30% NAV discount, when 35-40% NAV discounts in more marketable plays are freely available. As for CNP, well coincidentally the small block sale today does provide a splendid opportunity to bid in at 90p. IMHO CNP will be subject to an MBO straight after settlement of the court case. If they win the price will be 150p; if they lose - 125p. There is absiolutely no sense whatsoever in this company remaining listed, so this stock really is a one-way ticket offering a good yield for the ride.

SKYSHIP

[ntv] 14/1/2002 21:10

skyship
i used to be aholder in cnp .was a could company until mr glaser signed thinks he should not have and now its cost them dearly
djan is hugely undervalued and so hmso
plus a few others
interesting sector to be in if there is any sort of recovery
dyor
ntv

[bumpy dog [new]] 14/1/2002 13:00

Nice to see the property sector getting a bit of attention. I've been in Development Securities (DSC) for several years. Performance to date has been so-so, but they have a good development pipeline, and I'm hoping for better things in future.

Any comments on Haslemere (HMR) ?

BD

[ashtongray] 14/1/2002 11:01

Very good summary of the real estate UK market as I see it also...
Have positions in BLND, CLF, GPOR,HMSO, plus SLOU in ISA. I reckon one or more of these could well see corporate action in 2002 even if the average discount to nav remains at 35/40%.

I would add that if the current injection of liquidity into markets does eventually result in more inflation down the line, then real assets might suddenly look more attractive than right now.

[skyship] 13/1/2002 18:28

Are things beginning to stir in the property sector; and will corporate activity at HMSO be the fuse to light the fire under the sector as a whole? HMSO featured as a New Year a fortnight ago in the Daily Mail and on Friday in the IC - on the same day as HSBC switched its stance from "Reduce" to "Add". With the Company buying-in 10% of its stock recently; and with the NAV Discount now thought to be back over 40% - the timing certainly looks right.

As I have already stated on the SLOU thread, IMHO the Property Sector as a whole will prove to be a star performer in 2002 - a defensive sector offering above average yields; very little downside; and considerable upside potential.

The property sector finished in the middle of the pack last year with a fall of just 9%. A substantial re-rating is on the cards for 2002.

Not only will the institutional fund managers rather belatedly recognise the attractions of considerably above average dividend yields, but they will also begin to recognise that the now almost universal 40% discount to NAVs, renders investment a risk-free play, with the ever-present prospect of corporate action to provide substantial capital gain.

Simple arithmetic shows that the closing of a market discount of 40% to one of, say, 15% on an MBO or takeover, will provide a gain of 40%. So the widespread availability of such investments is totally anomalous; and we all know that market anomalies do not last long; and do provide investing opportunities which look so obvious with hindsight. An exact parallel is the performance of the housebuilders from mid-2000.

“Following the Money” has more often than not been a successful investment philosophy; so when the activities of sector professionals such as John Ritblat (British Land), Richard Peskin (Gt. Portland) & Donald Gordon (Liberty Int.) all anticipate improving prospects, I for one am happy to buy my ticket for the ride.

The ride could also come quicker than expected, as there must be many investment bankers looking at the success of the MEPC deal; and wondering whether such a deal might not easily be replicated elsewhere in the sector. Certainly those investment bankers have little else to do at the moment, so a spot of creativity could win the day!

One other bull point. What is often ignored in property, is that the UK quoted sector is very much in the minority in terms of % holding of the total market. With private companies and institutional direct investment (both UK & overseas)playing such a large part, the NAV discounts are now presenting some very tasty morsels.

That then sets the scene for the property bull. I would love to hear other views on the sector; esp. from any property players; and particularly the favoured investments. For the record, my own property portfolio is currently as follows: CNP, DJAN, ESA, GPOR, HMSO & SLOU........SKYSHIP