Hammerson Share Discussion Threads

[arphillips] 19/3/2018 07:49

Perhaps some of the short positions may now be closed!

[manrobert] 19/3/2018 07:43

not much reaction to announcement

[hugepants] 16/3/2018 20:57

I'm not understanding why shareholders would vote through the INTU acquisition when the share price has dropped about 20% since it was announced.

[typo56] 16/3/2018 19:35

As expected, uncrossing volume 14.3687m, as it exits the FTSE100.

[777mason] 16/3/2018 17:00

Are Investors Losing Their Shirt over Hammerson Plc (HMSO.L)? Mass Index in Focus

Hammerson Plc (HMSO.L) are on trader’s watchlists today as the shares have moved below a key Mass Index level of 26.5. When Donald Dorsey developed the Mass Index indicator, his rationale was that if the prevailing trend we're going to change, the price range would have to widen. Dorsey looked for “reversal bulges” to signal a trend reversal. According to Dorsey, a bulge occurs when the Mass Index moves above 27. This initial bulge does not complete the signal though. Dorsey waited for this bulge to reverse with a move back below 26.50. Once the reversal bulge is complete, traders should use other analysis techniques to determine the direction of the next move. look like it on it wat down

[777mason] 16/3/2018 16:54

Shopping center giant Hammerson slumped to the bottom of the FTSE 100 leaderboard after City analysts warned that it could face shareholder mutiny at a vote next month over its swoop for Intu Properties.

The Birmingham Bullring owner’s £3.4bn deal for Intu’s “mixed bag of capital-intensive in-town centers” raised eyebrows in December and Credit Suisse analysts warned in a downgrade of both companies that the UK sector is likely to come under increasing pressure.

The retail sector has suffered as shoppers have shunned the high street amid rising prices. Even with inflation set to cool, the accelerating shift from bricks to clicks as consumers shop online will ramp up the pressure on shopping center owners.

Intu shareholders have already given the takeover the green light but Hammerson’s backers will vote over the all-share tie-up next month.

There is a “limited attraction” for Hammerson shareholders increasing their exposure to the struggling UK market but, while some investors will likely vote against the takeover, it should gather enough votes for approval, Credit Suisse told clients. Hammerson’s 19pc share price plunge since unveiling the deal has seen it stripped of its blue-chip status and the company will join Intu in the FTSE 250 from Monday.

Mounting doubts over the impending tie-up pushed Hammerson down 22.2p, or 4.9pc, to 434.4p, a six-year low, while Intu slipped 5.6p to 206.8p.

[777mason] 16/3/2018 10:09

It's Just Starting: Moody's Warns A Deluge Of Retail Bankruptcies Is Coming

[777mason] 15/3/2018 17:54

loooooooool.... you are so right TRCML, you are a salt of the earth but I do agree with your assumption and Credit Suisse's conclusion too.it makes you wonder how many shares Goldman Sachs want to offload.

[trcml] 15/3/2018 15:50

According to Hammerson website, a shop in Victoria Gate, Leeds has been let to Seasalt. It would be about 350 miles roundtrip for me to go Leeds so I visited Seasalt's website to check them out. Whilst I was on the s site I noticed a rather attractive scarf so I bought it for my wife.

I sold my holding in HMSO earlier this week because I had a feeling the share price would fall more sharply than simply xd. The FTSE demote, etc.

Whilst I agree with Goldman Sachs assessment of HMSO's prospects, I am inclined to agree with Credit Suisse's conclusion. I shall probably buy again if and when the share price is about £4.00

[777mason] 15/3/2018 15:04

Credit Suisse has done a detailed analysis of the UK shopping centers owned by Hammerson and Intu and has downgraded both stocks.

Credit Suisse suspects Intu shareholders are getting the better end of the deal.

“The proposed exchange at H1 17 triple net asset value (NNNAV) appears attractive for Intu shareholders given it brings exposure to Hammerson's higher-growth markets, a fresh management approach and a share in £25m p.a. of Hammerson-estimated synergies. That said, deterioration in the UK retail environment since the deal was announced in December poses a risk to the transaction being completed, which we factor into our target price and rating,” the Swiss bank explained.

Intu’s shares rose after the agreed offer was announced but those gains have largely evaporated due, Credit Suisse (CS) believes, to the deterioration in the UK retail market, as evidenced by the number of big names cutting back on outlets or going into administration.

“We believe Intu's portfolio would not command the yields used in its recent appraisal if the assets were to be disposed of in the open market and the 5.0% average yield we use in our own assessment to value Intu’s portfolio results in values 13% lower than last appraised by the company,” CS said.

Shares in Hammerson were down 5.6% at 430.95p while Intu was down 3.1% at 205.8p.

[typo56] 15/3/2018 10:54

Partly the 14p.

Partly due to being relegated from the FTSE100 from Monday. Expect big uncrossing trade in closing auction tomorrow and funds reweight. Perhaps 10-15m shares.

Party due to consumer sentiment.

...

[orinocor] 15/3/2018 08:36

Why the big drop today? Only 14p is due to going ex-dividend.

[thamestrader] 13/3/2018 15:29

I daresay my shares, and any dividend, will still be resting in Beaufort Securities' administrators' account at that time.

[777mason] 12/3/2018 17:45

On the 26 April 2018, Hammerson plc (LSE:HMSO) will be paying shareholders an upcoming dividend amount of £0.15 per share. However, investors must have bought the company's stock before 15 March 2018 in order to qualify for the payment. That means you have only 3 days left! Should you diversify ...(desperation)

[777mason] 08/3/2018 13:47

New Look in the Bon Accord Centre is one of 60 stores nationwide that faces the axe because of “a difficult retail environment”. As part of the proposal, New Look would negotiate reduced rent for a further 393 of its stores. A spokeswoman for Hammerson, which own Union Square, said: “While we are relatively unaffected by the CVA, from our discussions with New Look we will be supporting them and it is in our interests to work together to assist in the turnaround process,
John Lewis Partnership has cut its staff bonus to the lowest level in 64 years after annual profits plunged at the group, which owns Waitrose and a chain of department stores. Sir Charlie said.He admitted that changes made across the group had affected “many” of its employees, with 1,400 redundancies in the past year.

[777mason] 06/3/2018 09:36

TRCML

absolutely some very good point made fella but lets not forget this person may have agenda as stated in his last paragraph "as I predicted many years ago in my newsletters for my clients"

[trcml] 05/3/2018 12:26

"TRCML this one is just for you please let me know what your thinking? House of Fraser has asked landlords to cut its rent bill. Others may follow. There is no reason to think Hammerson’s enlarged portfolio will offer any shelter from these trends. It has rejigged existing centres to reduce reliance on fashion but the sector still accounts for one-third of the total. If Hammerson cannot raise rents, its 5.5 per cent dividend yield will be unsustainable. Running fast to stay still is not ideal motivation for a deal. The shares are off 13 per cent since it was revealed. This raises the question of property valuation. Shares trade 40 per cent below the value of Hammerson’s property, which gained £1.9bn in a revaluation that helped raise pre-tax profits 28 per cent, in spite of the squeeze on rents. Stock markets and valuers cannot both be right."

"House of Fraser has asked landlords“ isn't the same as saying its landlords have agreed to cut HoF rent bill. Some landlords might, others might not. HoF isn't likely to update how many have and is probably prevented under non-disclosure agreements.

"Others may follow" - same principle. As for trend, only amongst those retailers that are floundering. It is true that many multiple retailers are pruning under-performing branches, but the cost of extrication doesn't come cheap; often it's less expensive to hang on until the end of the lease. As for landlords being accommodating, that depends upon whether the landlord can afford to or would prefer to let the premise to more progressive retailers of which there there is no shortage in the market.

Most quoted propco share prices are currently at a discount to last reported NAV. And so the share price should be. Presupposing recent valuation, share price on a par or at a premium is an aberration - a warning bell to sell while the going is good. On a par or at a premium reflects demand vs supply for the shares. The commercial property investment market is dynamic, and valuation doesn’t always keep up with the direction the market is taking. Quarterly, half-yearly or annual revaluation depends upon the date of the valuation. The valuation date and mood of the market are not necessarily connected.

The traditional link between rental value and capital value decoupled a few years ago. Low interest rates and stock market volatility makes commercial property investment continue to feel like a safe haven. Amongst professional investors, of for example HMSO’s experience, the obvious mistakes (over-exuberance caused by absence of judicious choice) can be avoided because as well as deep understanding of how the property system works the prop cos relationship with its retailer customers is more akin to a partnership.

NAV is an informed opinion of the value of the property at a specified date. The opinion is allowed a margin/bracket of error, but that’s not the same as thinking post-valuation-date events. A post-valuation-date event is not known about at the valuation date. The stock market is allowed to think ahead, regardless of what is known at the valuation date. Stock markets have every right to be cautious. It doesn’t make sense for NAV to be rise when hardly a day goes by without news of another well-known retailer in trouble. But while some retailers in difficulty is likely to lead to all manner of superficial comments about the future for bricks-and-mortar retailers, an in-depth understanding of the forces at work would know that is what is happening is as it should be - as I predicted many years ago in my newsletters for my clients and contacts. So provided things carry on as they are, the future for HMSO is very bright and will as time passes unfold in the form of rising dividends and gradually in turn rising share price.

[777mason] 05/3/2018 09:24

loool.......so right thamestrader and yes Carluccios did have very good food that was before the take over from landmark group ,which brings me back lovely to the take over of into? same can be said.

[thamestrader] 02/3/2018 14:39

I was not promoting these food outlets' offerings, merely observing they were a big chunk of the square footage. I wouldn't choose to eat in most of them myself, let alone take my kids there (if I had any). I have enough problems with excess calories without these places - although i do quite like Carluccio's.

[777mason] 02/3/2018 13:27

CC2014 i agree with your assumption's as for the likely scenario it speak for itself.

[thamestrader] 02/3/2018 12:55

HoF shut their "online store" out of Union Square in Aberdeen, one of very few shops to fail there. It was this development that got me interested in HMSO - i believed Aberdeen needs another shopping centre like it needs a hole in the head, but i was wrong, footfall is amazing, although i can't comment on how much money goes into the tills. It's anchor is Cineworld, and the rest is at least 50% restaurants, all of which seem busy. Next and Apple are other major retailers, plus M&S on the edge plus rail and bus stations bring folk in.

Today, the entire development is CLOSED due high winds!

[cc2014] 02/3/2018 11:24

I am tired 777mason. When you started posting I found your posts quite informative.

They were quite helpful to me to challenge my assumptions. Now I'm no longer paying any attention as your posts seem designed to paint only a one way picture and your logic is a little stretched.

Some of it kind of goes like this:

My birthday is on Tuesday April 25th this year. There are 365 days in a year so next year my birthday will be on a Wednesday and the year after on a Thursday. So, therefore in 40 years my birthday will be in June.


We all know House of Frazer is stuffed. It's been in the knackers yard for years. They haven't invested in their retail offering and try to charge a premium when it's no longer justified by the product offering. The floor space will gradually go and be replaced by something else. I think this is already in the share price. Further I think the share price is over-reacting like it always does. However, the over-reaction may not have finished yet.

Why don't we talk about the likely synergies between HMSO and INTU and how that might improve margins - starting with INTU average interest rate on it's debt and how that will fall as part of the larger group?

[777mason] 02/3/2018 10:54

TRCML this one is just for you please let me know what your thinking?


House of Fraser has asked landlords to cut its rent bill. Others may follow. There is no reason to think Hammerson’s enlarged portfolio will offer any shelter from these trends. It has rejigged existing centres to reduce reliance on fashion but the sector still accounts for one-third of the total. If Hammerson cannot raise rents, its 5.5 per cent dividend yield will be unsustainable.




Running fast to stay still is not ideal motivation for a deal. The shares are off 13 per cent since it was revealed. This raises the question of property valuation. Shares trade 40 per cent below the value of Hammerson’s property, which gained £1.9bn in a revaluation that helped raise pre-tax profits 28 per cent, in spite of the squeeze on rents. Stock markets and valuers cannot both be right.