Hammerson Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 16/10/2020 21:51

Interesting lesson on HMSO Shorting when the end point is a distressed rights issue is the best short If you short to an insolvency you can wait 2 years to actually get paid, and when you close early you run the short squeeze risk If it's a distressed rights issue you get almost the same upside but you can easily close your short Which is why HMSO was (from memory) more heavily shorted than Intu (which was always far more likely to go bust)

[williamcooper104] 16/10/2020 21:27

The tragic thing (or rather one of) about HMSO is the cross collaterised unsecured debt structure - so no key throwing/buying back loans on dogs - non-recourse debt is a life safer Land values/alternative use can be disastrous but if you have the capital to realise those values then it's less so If you weight Bicester and the retail warehouses as being correctly valued then you will be left with a very low value on the rest - which could be not far from land value (haven't had time to properly analyse this) I'm at the moment very cautiously optimistic on HMSO - Rob is a class act - new CEO is unknown

[thomstar] 16/10/2020 20:36

Shareholders likely to get screwed if it comes to land value

[williamcooper104] 16/10/2020 17:50

The right retail is still v valuable £20k a foot on Bond Street (recent post covid comp) Bicester is a discounted Bond Street - with higher sales densities (Proposed VAT changes are a threat though -and it won't fully recover until international travel/tourism is back)

[williamcooper104] 16/10/2020 17:47

You have to value the shopping centres on land value/alternative use There are post covid comps on the retail warehouses

[williamcooper104] 16/10/2020 17:45

MI HMSO is interesting Some good city centre locations - eg Dundrum, Bulling Plus Bicester - a globally unique asset The retail warehouses have good short tent cashflow and can be sold of (some of them convert well into logistics assets) even in this market Best time to buy real estate is after a war

[researchcentre123] 16/10/2020 17:08

You're right I'm down on this one Millennial for now but I'm not the only person who thinks it's going up. Here's another analyst voting that way:https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/hammerson-plc-68-5-potential-upside-indicated-by-jp-morgan-cazenove/412863792The analysts are all voting in one direction at the moment. The shorts have dropped from 29 percent to 6.5 percent. There is a price for everything when it is too expensive and too cheap and right now it's too cheap.

[keithlorna] 16/10/2020 14:02

If this stock is so bad, move on and let the real investors speculate their hard earned cash.

[millennialinvestor] 16/10/2020 13:30

Research how much are you down? ramping this share pre rights issue. What makes you think that July's valuation is accurate and valid? We are in a post-pandemic world, changes everywhere, that number has been plucked out the air with nothing to back it up, hence no share price to back it up. There is simply no confidence, which is understandable, local lockdowns, cases rising again... cash out while they are still worth something

[researchcentre123] 16/10/2020 12:16

It's all about price Millennial, it's not binary. The world is not 'heres the internet. No one will ever go to a shop again'. That sector will just have to change as it always has. This share is so discounted and there has been such an overreaction against it that it's not far off being given away. The values are still there which is evidenced by the sale of Via Outlets and even the insiders who continue to buy in. Wld you buy a rolls royce if it cost the same as a mini and had a suitcase full of cash in the back? Here for your 17p you're getting 104p value based on July's valuation. That price allows for any big drop in values and some. It's why insiders are buying in a big way.

[millennialinvestor] 16/10/2020 10:01

Think of it this way - before covid was even a thing. 2019 record number of high-street shops closing down, 2019 record number of online shops and sales - Was already looking bleak for the likes of hammerson Covid has simply been a catalyst further reducing footfall in shopping centers and forcing businesses to move towards online sales. This will also have an impact on their estate value because there simply is no demand for it. Go to your local city, you will find empty units littered everywhere.

[bolador] 15/10/2020 17:40

MillenialInvestor A rise in share price from 15p to 22 in a few days followed by disappointing Covid news, which way do you think the next share price move was likely to be ? I suppose some will have sold recently for odd reasons, we can never know but there is not much to worry as far as the company fundamentals go.Technically speaking any cat would feel quite jovial in fact, not being dead by a long chalk. The story remains good with some analysts coming in with target sps well above the current share price See above.

[millennialinvestor] 15/10/2020 11:29

@bolador are you still sure this is just profit taking? I think the technical term is "Dead cat bounce"

[nickrl] 15/10/2020 10:06

Notwithstanding Atkins & Co flawed strategy this update exposes the scale of the misuse of the moratorium on the basis that after 6 months the outstanding rents are still at such a high level. One would have expected by now to be able to categorise them as at least deferrals but we know from RNSs across the sector that many well capitalised retailers are refusing to engage with landlords. With the restrictions now enveloping the country again I doubt the moratorium will be lifted in December and there is a risk of more rent forbearance being sought by retailers and F&B that get restrictions slapped on them So yes HMSO have cash in the bank to stay solvent for a few years but we aint out of the woods yet although Lighthouse and de Beers will keep topping up and will surely take the opportunity to take it out on the cheap.

[researchcentre123] 15/10/2020 08:40

https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/jpmorgan-slashes-target-price-on-hammerson--7675697.htmlThe old target price of course is irrelevant as the rights issue changed the share structure but in the last few days societe general have a target of 39p and jp morgan now at 30p, which implies the tide of opinion is turning. I would see this point as the nadir or lowest point, as come next year we'll have a gradual return to normality, assuming the vaccine predictions are correct. I guess Rita Rose has found a home with her nice moving allowance! Am glad she's getting on with it.

[williamcooper104] 15/10/2020 07:39

Agree - it absolutely could have been worse

[dandanactionman] 15/10/2020 07:29

All IMHO DYORMy first view on todays RNS is could have been worse.Disposal appears on track.Given circumstances reasonable level of rent collection

[researchcentre123] 14/10/2020 12:34

Coronavirus is what it's about which seems to be going up. Panic reactions have suppressed the price although in reality that is more than priced in given the ratio of 5 or six times asset value to share price. I think we'll see some dramatic movt in share price when they start dishing out vaccines.

[s34icknote] 14/10/2020 08:16

Worries over lock down I guess

[bolador] 13/10/2020 15:54

Much Profit Taking ? Not really volume is down today compared to recent activity. Disappointing even so..

[millennialinvestor] 13/10/2020 15:21

This is quite a lot of profit taking... lol

[williamcooper104] 13/10/2020 13:06

SPG in US - (they don't value properties on the balance sheet so can't do like for like comparisons) Best management team in industry, bomb proof balance sheet which they are using to buy bankrupt tenants Uniball (now owner of Westfield) is also cheap

[williamcooper104] 13/10/2020 13:02

Tis the joys of penny stockdom

[1hughb] 13/10/2020 12:20

So what we've got here then is real estate selling at under 20 percent of net value after a write-down. Previously there was a worry of breaching covenants. That's gone. Only issue is now covid and will pple never go back to shops. Bill Gates says vaccine will be starting to roll out by end of year so covid will presumably disappear in the beginning of next year some time. Shops will continue I believe with some changes and a move to more experiences like the football and other forms of entertainment in what is currently shopping space. There will also be some conversion to residential where possible. They have a lot of liquidity, probably not enough to do everything at once but enough to get started while they make the rest run well. But the key here is we're getting in cheap. I don't want a Bentley but if you give me one for 1/5 what they're selling for in autotrader, I'm going to buy it. Because even if I resell it at a deep discount I'm still quids in. Don't see any other real estate companies out there this cheap that have the liquidity to survive the pandemic, which Hammerson does