Halfords Share Discussion Threads

[poikka] 20/1/2020 11:30

Oh that's nice, the Chairman's bought 50k shares.

[kendonagasaki] 20/1/2020 08:39

Reckon 148-158 is the range here till year end.They will need this cold weather front thats about to hit the UK.I do hope its a cold one.

[yump] 17/1/2020 12:20

I'm like spob, I just assume people are deliberately going to mow me down (and run into me if I'm in the car and not indicate etc. etc. !).

o/t Some stupid designs of integrated indicators on Peugeots and on buses, where you can hardly see the indicator because its a tiny orange thing inside a red one. Buses should never have been manufactured like that. I tried to overtake a stopped one last week and was alongside it before I could see that it was indicating to pull out.

Although I have some HFD shares from a year or so ago (so shouldn't be down on it), I should mention that as far as I can see, from a mechanic's point of view, the Boardman bikes have been 'value engineered'. I've seen failed and/or worn bearings on recent year's bikes, on even the top models after modest mileages. When they were first sold years ago they were a raging bargain. They still have a better spec. than most bikes the same price, presumably because of bulk buying by HFD and new bearings are not exactly a bank-breaker I guess.

...old git moan coming... bikes from 30 years ago have loose ball bearings in the wheel hubs and nearly always can just be re-greased, as there's no wear. Cos the ball bearings and the seats were made of the right stuff, up north in Sheffield I reckon.

[stupmy] 17/1/2020 12:00

Probably worth doing unfortunately.

[essentialinvestor] 17/1/2020 11:59

Had a Black vue 4k installed by HFD. Having experienced an insurance claim
fraud previously, that I could not prove, it just seems safer and less stressful!.

[stupmy] 17/1/2020 11:53

EI, I saw something like that last year, it was a woman checking her phone, she got hit and sued the driver. The driver did not counter sue her and the Judge found in her favour sentencing him to pay 90,000 pounds (or something similar). The judge also said that had the driver brought a case against the pedestrian, it would have been 50/50 and he would not have had to pay. Funny old world as most of us are still not really part of this litiginous society. For my money, any idiot walking into the road while looking at their phone is liable for the consequences. I do however accept as a driver that I need to be 'hyper-aware' for idiots. I've driven over a busy cross-road twice recently on green and had a cyclist once and an electric scooter once, come out of nowhere (obviously have to have shot a red light) and shot past just in front of me. I did't hit them, but it makes me very aware that you cannot predict the stupidity of others.

[essentialinvestor] 17/1/2020 11:38

Dash cam is the way to go. There was a case in London recently where a motorist
now faces jail having hit a pedestrian, the driver maintains the person walked
in front of the car while checking a mobile phone, but no dash cam so can't prove it, ugly. Also protects you from insurance scam crash frauds.

[essentialinvestor] 17/1/2020 11:32

This should be a mini goldmine.

They operate in a nice niche market.

[poikka] 17/1/2020 11:13

According to HL they trade at 7.3x expected earnings.

[argylerich] 17/1/2020 10:59

Even larger volume per hour today

[spob] 17/1/2020 08:34

Cycling in London is okay for me because I basically expect every car driver to do the wrong thing. (and most of them do) So I ride accordingly.

Wouldn't recommend it for the inexperienced.

Such a great feeling, wizzing through the stationary traffic jams. Lol

[stupmy] 17/1/2020 07:14

spob, a few years ago I tried using the bike to get to work. Lewisham to Chelsea (about 6 miles). Was knocked off 3 times in about 3 mths and went back to the car. It's insane trying to cycle in London, people do the most unexpected manoeuvres at the most unexpected times. Parking was my biggest problem. I figured out that drivine was ok in a 15 min window around 6:45 am. After that bike was faster, but more vulnerable. They changed all the parking around Battersea park to limmited time or maybe payable which meant I had to park further away and finally go back to the train.

[spob] 17/1/2020 03:03

Driving a car in London is hell most of the time. Can only see cycle use booming as more people realise it’s just so much better.

During the day, I only use my car when I really have to.

Traffic in London is insane most of the time now. Feel sorry for people stuck in traffic jams every day, breathing in all that diesel pollution inside their cars.

[daz] 16/1/2020 21:37

Yump, what you've said chimes with my experience at Evans, where I had to return a new bike for a brake defect 5 times before giving up. I don't think they're the place to go for servicing.
I do though think they have an advantage for bikes bought through the Ride to work scheme, the company I work for would only allow bikes to be bought through Halfords or Evans because they are national chains and you will find one or the other reasonable close, wherever you live and it's very likely other employers are the same.
I also think they made a good move buying Boardman a few years back, as it gives them an exclusive mid-market brand, which people are likely to trade up to. They don't ever specifically mention their sales, so it's a perception on my part.

[yump] 16/1/2020 17:40

Cycle stats. Journeys look to have peaked. That could mean that adult bikes bought are more likely to be upgrades or replacements than first time, which imo are less likely to be bought from HFD.

[yump] 16/1/2020 17:33

Well I don't know if the following will help, but the first bit is my take on the bike market as I'm quite familiar with that - doesn't necessarily lead to a conclusion...

Apart from buying remotely in a box from Argos, I think Halfords have a solid bit of the kids bike market. I meet a lot of people who are not confident in assembling a kids bike from a box and the extra cost of getting a local bike mechanic to do it separately is a bit of a barrier, especially if its a present with a time limit.

If I can dig out some figures on the bike sales market I will, but in general from my experience servicing bikes, the one thing people say after using HFD for servicing is that they wish they hadn't. Put another way, once I've serviced a 'disappointed' customer's bike, they never go back to HFD, EVEN with the offer of the one year included service on a new bike. Word gets around.

Word also gets around that the adult bikes are best bought online and then given to a local bike shop to check, assuming your LBS is good.

I think that comes from paying the HFD guys peanuts and also they can't affort to continuously have a skilled mechanic available, so you get a random mechanic.

I wonder how many people have now got bikes that will ever get them ? Even if the adult bike sale market are still on the up, I think this coming Spring will be a critical point for HFD bike sales. I think they get away with quite a few 'first bike' sales and then the owners become knowledgeable. Or I do a service and they find out that the bike wasn't riding properly in the first place because it wasn't adjusted properly (rushed assembly not surprising).

Auto

I definitely think auto will keep growing:
- Daft cost of simple stuff done by a dealer
- More used cars vs new
- Small garages run by skilled people, gradually disappearing (that's an assumption, not a fact - based on how do you get overall training now, that's not brand/dealer specific)
- Decrease in practical skills - Lego is just block assembly - Meccano doesn't exist now - you can't change a lightbulb without thick gloves and dismantling most of the front of the car

Sterling increasing can only be good - everything 'bike' is imported including the clothing.

[muchodinero] 16/1/2020 17:27

"Profit growth on the Horizon"....

[...]

[muchodinero] 16/1/2020 17:04

You guys don't half talk a load of nonsense about predicted prices...the Profits of £50/55 million have been reconfirmed, debt is low, P/E is very low, no real skeletons in the cupboard so a case of waiting for the remaining shorts to close and should see a steady climb back to a realistic valuation by year end wouldn't be out of the question. Unless its targeted by another company???

[porsche1945] 16/1/2020 17:03

Another tired dying declining business model uk biz staggering to certain death. UK uninvestable thanks to brexit sxxtshow and destroyed sterling, these like all other bricks and mortar retailer are toast. Dump.

[stupmy] 16/1/2020 15:31

I agree EI, and for a long time I avoided TLW due to gaps on the downside, I missed some great trading, but some massive losses. I think it will close.

[argylerich] 16/1/2020 15:25

Some bigger buys going through but price seems to be holding around the auto trade sells for now.

[essentialinvestor] 16/1/2020 15:15

Some gaps don't close, how many gaps are there on the Amazon chart over the last few years!.